Dow futures little changed after blue-chip average hits 40,000 for first time: live updates

A soft landing for the economy remains the most likely scenario, according to Morgan Stanley.

However, in a recent note, the bank’s chief investment officer, Lisa Shalett, said the chances of a soft landing for the economy had fallen from 80% to 50%. The bank still expects three rate cuts this year, with the first scheduled for September.

As for positioning, Morgan Stanley maintains market weighting in global equities. The bank’s price target for the S&P 500 this year is currently 4,500, representing a 15% decline.

Shalett’s best ideas currently lie in Japan, in real assets and infrastructure investments, she writes.

“Outside the US, we prefer Japan due to improving growth and inflation dynamics there and the very cheap yen. We also continue to look for equity-specific opportunities in Europe and beta opportunities in some emerging countries like India, Brazil and Mexico,” she said. added.

—Lisa Kailai Han

Reddit jumped 13% after announcing a deal with OpenAI in which parent company ChatGPT can use data from the social media platform to train its large language model.

“Including it in ChatGPT affirms our belief in a connected Internet, helps people find more or what they’re looking for, and helps new audiences find community on Reddit,” Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said in a press release Thursday.

—Fred Imbert

A hearing into a liquidation petition for debt-ridden Chinese real estate company Country Garden Holdings has been adjourned by a Hong Kong court until June 11, according to Reuters.

The struggling real estate company received a liquidation request from one of its creditors at the end of February.

It had received a petition for “liquidation” filed by Ever Credit Limited on February 27 for non-payment of a loan worth 1.6 billion Hong Kong dollars ($204.4 million).

Country Garden announced in early April that trading of its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange had been suspended.

—Shreyashi Sanyal, Reuters

China’s urban unemployment rate fell to 5% in April, from 5.2% in March.

The country’s National Bureau of Statistics did not provide data by age. He had earlier said age-specific data would be available after the overall figures were published.

The NBS said in a statement that April’s figures were affected by the May 1 Labor Day holiday and last year’s high base.

“Key indicators of industry, exports, employment and prices have generally improved, with new driving forces maintaining rapid growth,” the NBS said.

Read the full story here.

—Evelyn Cheng

China’s retail sales and fixed asset investment in April exceeded market expectations, while industrial production rose more than expected compared to the same period last year.

Retail sales rose 2.3% in April from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That’s less than the 3.8% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, and slower than the 3.1% pace reported in March.

Industrial production rose 6.7% in April from a year ago, beating expectations for 5.5% growth, also significantly higher than March’s 4.5%.

Investment in fixed assets rose 4.2% in the first four months of the year, missing estimates of a 4.6% increase.

Read the full story here.

—Evelyn Cheng

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that the central bank had no immediate plans to sell its ETF holdings, according to Reuters.

“We need to take time to decide what to do with our ETF holdings, including whether to sell them in the future,” Ueda said.

In March, the BoJ dismantled its yield curve control policy and stopped its purchases of Japanese ETFs and REITs.

The BOJ has cumulative ETFs with a cumulative value of 37.15 trillion yen ($238.92 billion), with an estimated market value of 71.3 trillion yen, according to the March report from the services site QUICK financial information.

-Lim Hui Jie

Doximity soared more than 14% in extended trading after the platform for healthcare professionals beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations and announced a stock buyback.

The company beat even the most optimistic analysts surveyed by FactSet for adjusted earnings per share and revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter. Doximity offered slightly higher-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter, coming in at $119.5 million to $120.5 million, versus consensus estimates of $118.9 million. However, its full-year performance outlook on this measure was weak.

The San Francisco-based company also announced it would repurchase up to $500 million of its Class A shares.

— Alex Haring

Investors are keenly aware of some market risks, such as a potential recession and consumer stress, but may find themselves blindsided by others, according to Barclays strategist Venu Krishna.

“We believe that stagflation (although unlikely) has the potential to surprise equity markets, as some traditionally defensive positions would be exactly what you do not want to own in such a scenario,” the strategist wrote in a note. THURSDAY.

Krishna added that tight risk premiums also indicate that investors have not fully considered potential geopolitical risks.

—Lisa Kailai Han

Despite Thursday’s decline, all three major averages are on track to end the week with gains.

The Nasdaq Composite led the indexes higher this week with a jump of 2.2%. The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, while the Dow rose 0.9%.

-Alex Harring

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income and head of global allocation, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” that there are signs that the low-end consumer in the U.S. is in difficulty. That could be a major factor in pushing the Federal Reserve to cut rates, Rieder said.

“It’s very clear that you’re putting pressure on low incomes. I think they would like to get some reductions this year. Could they get it in July? I would say there’s a 25% chance you could start moving in. I think the basic scenario is you start moving in September,” Rieder said.

These projections are roughly in line with market expectations, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Rieder also said he believes stocks can continue to hit new record highs, citing strong earnings and demand for stocks, including share buybacks from big tech companies.

—Jesse Book

Futures contracts tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were all little changed shortly after 6 p.m. ET.

-Alex Harring