Dow Jones futures rose slightly late Sunday, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, with all eyes on Nvidia.
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The stock market rally has seen the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs over the past week, with many stocks breaking out or issuing other buy signals. Stocks took a break late in the week, but the Dow closed Friday above 40,000 for the first time.
Nvidia (NVDA) results are expected Wednesday evening. The AI chip leader’s findings and advice will have a huge impact on other areas of artificial intelligence – one that goes far beyond actual AI companies. So Nvidia has big implications this week for the broader market recovery.
Nvidia stock entered a buy zone last week. AI plays Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT), Super microcomputer (SMCI) and, undoubtedly, Advanced microsystems (AMD) are all close to buying points.
Also reporting next week: Securities in PDD portfolio (PDD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Manufacturing of modines (MOD), Toll Brothers (TOL), Synopsis (SNPS), Exterior decks (BRIDGE) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).
Pinduoduo and parent company Temu, PDD, are already in the buy zone, alongside luxury builder Toll Brothers. Modine Manufacturing, Synopsys, Deckers and Williams-Sonoma are near points of purchase. Palo Alto is advancing to a new baseline, with Monday night’s results relevant to other cybersecurity plays such as Crowd strike (CRWD).
Nvidia stock appears in the IBD rankings. AVGO and Nvidia stock are on SwingTrader. Microsoft and Synopsys stocks are on IBD’s Long-Term Leaders list. Nvidia and PDD stocks are on the IBD 50. Nvidia, Broadcom and SMCI stocks are on the IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% from fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading during the next regular trading session.
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Stock market rally: Dow Jones above 40,000
The stock market rally benefited from slowing inflation and other economic data pointing to a slowdown. Key indexes made a big move on Wednesday, then took a break at the end of the week, waiting for Nvidia.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% in last week’s stock trading, ending the week just above 40,000. The S&P 500 Index jumped 1.5%. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 2.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 1.7%. The Dow is in a five-week winning streak while the other indexes have been up for four weeks.
Home builders and related stocks, various financial, medical, energy, aerospace, specialty shoe, restaurant and global e-commerce companies are among the many areas showing strength.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.42%, although it was well off its weekly low of 4.32%.
U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.3% to $80.06 a barrel last week.
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Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) jumped 3.5%. Microsoft stock is a major component, with Palo Alto also present in IGV. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 3.1%. Nvidia stock is SMH’s No. 1 stock, with AMD and Broadcom also key members. SNPS stock is in both SMH and IGV.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose nearly 4% last week. The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) fell almost 1%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 1.7%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) edged down 0.3%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 1.2% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gained 1.9%.
The SPDR Industrial Select Sector Fund (XLI) fell 0.3%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 1.5%.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rallied 5.9% last week and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) jumped 6.6%.
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Nvidia Earnings
The chip giant reported Wednesday evening. Analysts expect Nvidia’s earnings to jump 412% to $5.58 per share and sales to rise 245% to $24.51 billion.
Even if Nvidia beats expectations and raises its guidance again, will that be enough to satisfy investors’ expectations?
NVDA stock rose 2.9% to 924.79 last week. Shares broke through a 922.20 cup-with-handle buy point on Wednesday, pulling back to test that entry on Friday.
Other AI actions
Broadcom stock rose 4.7% to 1,395.29 last week, briefly surpassing a consolidation buy point of 1,438.17, according to MarketSurge. Shares rose above the anticipated entry level of 1,403.98, but fell back below that level on Friday.
AMD stock jumped 8.25% to 164.46 for the week, but hit resistance at a 50-day sliding line. Decisively cleaning up this area could offer an aggressive entry, but AMD has lagged behind Nvidia and many other AI games in recent months. Microsoft’s Azure would offer cloud computing customers the ability to run AMD’s AI processors. That gave AMD shares a boost Friday morning, but shares pared gains.
Microsoft stock was up 1.3% for the week at 420.21, moving away from the 50-day line and heading toward a fixed-base buy point of 430.82. Investors could take advantage of a move above Thursday’s high of 425.24 as an early entry for the Dow Jones giant, coinciding with a trendline.
Super Micro stock climbed 11.2% to 887.89 for the week, just below the 50-day line. Investors could benefit from a breakthrough in this area as an early entry into the AI server maker.
Taking new positions in any of these names before Nvidia’s results would be very risky.
Of course, this is just a sampling of the AI games that could be affected, from chips and software to thermal cooling companies like Modine Manufacturing and utilities like Constellation Energy (CEG).
A disappointing earnings report from Nvidia could trigger heavy selling in several important market sectors.
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What to do now
After reaching record highs, the stock market rally is taking a break. This allows stocks to forge handles or ride up the right side of the bases, thereby flexing their relative strength.
The last two weeks have seen a series of buying opportunities, which have generally worked out. Investors are now expected to be significantly or heavily exposed.
Be wary of buying AI stock ahead of Nvidia earnings. Nvidia’s results could have a big impact on the broader market, so be judicious in adding overall exposure.
Now is a good time to review your portfolio. Are there any stragglers that could be dropped to make room for additions or new purchases? Are you too exposed to AI stocks for your liking?
Definitely work on your watchlists. Many stocks are recovering across various sectors.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in tune with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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