Image credit:
Can Wake Forest play the role of regional spoiler in 2024? (Photo by Eddie Kelly/ProLook Photos)
Over the past decade, an average of about six hosts have not progressed beyond regionals (last year there were seven). So who are the six No. 1 seeds most likely to be upset this week?
Related: See the full 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket here
Arizona
The Wildcats were a bit of a surprise regional host due to their RPI (31), but their other credentials are no doubt. Arizona has doubled its Pac-12 titles, winning both the regular season and tournament championship, and is 26-8 since March 28. While the selection committee showed strong conviction in Arizona, placing it 13th in the tournament, it also gave it perhaps the toughest regional draw.
No. 2 seed Dallas Baptist (44-13) won the Conference USA tournament title and was in the Top 25 much of the year. No. 3 West Virginia finished fourth in the Big 12 standings and went 17-8 in the regular season after JJ Wetherholt, the potential top draft pick, returned from injury in early April. No. 4 seed Grand Canyon is no stranger to the playoffs and this spring went 2-1 against Arizona, including a 24-8 loss in April (although this (remarkably, all these matches took place in the middle of the week). Any of these teams could realistically win in Tucson.
East Carolina
Since the selection committee began ranking the 16 hosts in 2018 (previously, regionals were compared based on geography and to avoid conference matchups), the No. 16 overall seed has not won its region only once: last year, when Alabama swept Tuscaloosa. Regional.
The selection committee seems to be trying to put the best No. 2 seed in this region and this year ECU has to face Wake Forest, the preseason No. 1 team and a team that has just as much power. star than any other on the field. We’ll see how both teams handle their starters, but this at least has the potential to create a matchup of projected first-round picks between Trey Yesavage and Chase Burns. Wake is 13-2 in games where Burns starts. Yesavage, if healthy after being hospitalized last week with a partially collapsed lung, is one of the few pitchers who could face him. Further complicating matters for ECU is that it went 8-7 in May and will need to regain the momentum it had early in the year.
Georgia
There are five SEC hosts, and they probably won’t all win their regional, although they are all top-eight seeds. The Bulldogs seem the most ripe for an upset. Georgia has less tournament experience on its roster than other SEC hosts and a first-year head coach in Wes Johnson. How will it respond to the pressure of a regional environment? She’s an unknown. Georgia has lost three straight games and will have had 10 days off since losing in the first round of the SEC tournament. What kind of impact will this have on the Bulldogs? The rest could have been beneficial, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if they came out a little rusty on Friday.
No. 2 seed UNC Wilmington may be the best program to never win a regional championship, a title it really wants to capture, and No. 3 seed Georgia Tech, is an in-state rival with a powerful offense that would love to end Georgia’s season. . Army, seeded No. 4, has more tournament experience than any other team in Athens (the Black Knights have won six straight), has as much mental toughness as any team in the country and an ace in Justin Lehman (5-3, 2.53) who presents a tricky matchup from the start.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels are 32-2 this season at Boshamer Stadium and are a team that I believe is one of the favorites for the national championship. So what are they doing on this list? The answer is twofold: 1) that’s how much I believe in LSU right now and 2) there is some inexperience for UNC.
LSU, the region’s No. 2 seed, went 11-3 in May to burst into the tournament field, including a seven-game winning streak that was snapped in the tournament championship game SEC vs. Tennessee. The Tigers, who were my preseason national championship pick, are playing as well as anyone in the country and have one of the best 1-2 punches on the mound in lefty Gage Jump and righty Luke Hollman, as well as a bullpen ace in lefty. Griffon herring. UNC is very talented, but it starts as a freshman at wide receiver (Luke Stevenson) and at the front of its rotation (Jason DeCaro).
Oklahoma
The Sooners are a bit of an anomaly in college baseball this season. They are actually better on the road (14-5) than at home (18-10). They’re also very good at beating teams worse than them and not very good at beating teams that are at their level — they lost series to Oklahoma State, Texas and West Virginia, the teams that finished second, third and fourth in the Big. 12 in the standings, in addition to being swept at home by Lamar.
So even though Oklahoma is 37-19 overall and won the Big 12 title, it is by no means unbeatable. Duke, the No. 2 seed in Norman, has had its ups and downs this season. He just won the ACC Tournament, but he lost three of his last four series at the end of the season. Left-hander Jonathan Santucci, a projected first-round pick, should be back in the rotation this weekend after missing his last two starts. No. 3 seed UConn is a strong, well-traveled, proven team that will in no way be overwhelmed by the moment. No. 4 seed Oral Roberts isn’t as good as last year’s College World Series team, but it has that experience and is 1-1 this season against the Sooners. I wouldn’t be surprised by a result in Norman this weekend.
Oklahoma State
This has more to do with the Cowboys’ draw in the Stillwater Regional than anything about their own team. Oklahoma State has won nine of its last 10 games, including a run to the Big 12 Tournament. It’s also 21-5 this season at O’Brate Stadium.
The problem, however, is the draw. This week, Nebraska, the Big Ten tournament champion who is 21-12 on the road, and Florida, the 2023 national runner-up led by All-American Jac Caglianone, will arrive in Stillwater this week. No. 4 seed Niagara has been largely untested against those kinds of opponents, having only faced two teams this year against a team that made the NCAA Tournament (it went 1-1 against James Madison). Oklahoma State has lost two straight regional championships and while I think this year’s version of the Cowboys is better than 2022 and 2023, they will still have their hands full.