Just a few years ago, the scouting industry and, therefore, those of us who cover the draft, would be almost in “Go” mode. The recently concluded conference tournaments were the last looks decision-makers could take at the college crop in a class. Maybe area scouts would participate in regionals, which are scheduled to begin this weekend, but scouting directors and general managers wouldn’t make it, as the June draft usually started right at the end of that first playoff round.
When the event was moved to July and during the All-Star break, we all had to learn how to shift our internal Draft clocks. Teams can, and will, recruit quite heavily for Regionals, Super Regionals, and even the College World Series. Additionally, there is also the Draft Combine in mid-June.
I mention all of this, more than six weeks before the start of the Draft, to clearly show how much time we still have and how much can still change. Teams still need to focus on things like medical reports and signability, so this new simulation still has a fair amount of guesswork, albeit with a new Draft Top 200 list and executive survey providing some insight. .
The top 10 names always seem to be about the same, but as Jim Callis pointed out in his mid-May mock, it’s rare for the top 10 guys to break into the top 10, even though that’s how I set it up for that. edition (with some changes in order from Jim’s). I’ll point out throughout the screening when certain names seem to come up in the first round of conversations, although it’s still a little early in my opinion to get into the actual details of the permutations at each location.
As always, there are some players I wanted to include in the top 30 picks, but I haven’t really found a home. There’s a lot of buzz for Illinois prep right-hander Ryan Sloan and Arkansas high school outfielder Slade Caldwell, with both being mentioned as high as teenagers (especially Sloan). California high school right-hander Braylon Doughty’s name has been popping up a bit, so keep an eye on that one because the prep pitch set is always so difficult to place.
1. Guards: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Bazzana, our new #1, and Charlie Condon continue to generate buzz for the top spot, and both continue to put up video game-like numbers.
2. Red: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
In many ways, the Reds are in a good position and can take any college bat that the Guardians don’t take. In this case, it’s Condon.
3. Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (#5)
There has been talk that at least one of the top two college arms would enter at the top of the draft ahead of some of the college sticks we’ve had here. Burns has been on fire lately, with 71 strikeouts in 33 innings over his last five starts.
4. A: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
With plenty of college power still on the board, the A’s have some options and Montgomery, with his 26 homers and 1.193 OPS, is still very much in the mix.
5. White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (#3)
Yes, the chase rate worries some, but the guy just doesn’t miss, carrying a .415/.525/.844 line with 29 home runs in regional play.
6. Royals: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (Number 4)
He got off to a slow start and now has 22 home runs and a 1.327 OPS for the year. Who wouldn’t want to see him in a lineup with Bobby Witt Jr.?
7. Cardinals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (Number 6)
Smith, who currently holds an NCAA Division I record of 17.5 K/9, is the other college arm that could move into the top 5 college batting group, so it shouldn’t shock anyone if there goes sooner than that.
8. Angels: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No.7)
After missing time earlier this year with a hamstring issue, Wetherholt began punishing baseballs again, with a 1.132 OPS and almost twice as many walks as strikeouts ( 29/15) this season.
9. Pirates: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Calif. (No. 10)
He’s a big left-handed shortstop, so of course he gives off Corey Seager vibes. Many scouts have more belief in his hit tool than the next prep bat to come off the board…
10. Nationals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Miss. (No. 9)
Griffin has perhaps the best all-around toolset in the entire class, and even though Rainer gets the advantage in the hitting tool, there’s enough belief that Griffin can punch for him to land in the top 10.
11. Tigers: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Arizona. (No. 17)
Right now, that appears to be the ceiling for the young southpaw from Arizona who received the most votes in our executive survey as the best prep pitcher in the class.
12. Red Sox: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 16)
Tibbs’ name comes up often among top 10 teams because his bat could move quickly in a system, although his lack of defensive profile could limit him a bit.
13. Giants: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 13)
If things play out this way, the Giants might want to look to college bats and King would certainly be in the mix.
14. Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14)
He is sophomore eligible and has put his freshman issues aside, significantly reducing his swing-and-misses this spring. Additionally, he put up good numbers with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League last summer.
15. Mariners: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
Yesavage is clearly the third-best varsity arm in the class, but his recent punctured lung creates question marks. If he returns to the mound healthy, he could very likely go higher than that.
16. Marlins: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State (16).No. 23)
Placing top college catchers isn’t easy this year, but Janek’s name moved closer to the top half of the first round with an improved approach at the plate to go along with his arm strength.
17. Brewers: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 20)
The power-speed combination (22 homers, 28 steals) draws a lot of interest; the K rate (26.9 PCT) makes you think a lot.
18. Rays: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 25)
A college bat with a little helium, he worked his way (.382/.447/.789 with 28 homers) to the top of the Volunteers’ talented bat group. Placing him here reflects growing interest in Moore more than a belief that the Rays are very interested.
19. Mets: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 19)
Benge could find his way anywhere in this series of college hitters, with some even thinking he deserves top-10 consideration.
20. Blue Jays: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 26)
Amick got knocked around a bit through no fault of his own (appendectomy) and it wouldn’t be surprising if a strong playoff performance could put an upward arrow next to his name again.
21. Twins: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 15)
There are those who prefer White to someone like, say, Tibbs, because he has the chance to stay third. A total of 75 home runs in three collegiate seasons is nothing to sneeze at.
22. Orioles: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Texas (No. 27)
He can hit and run, although there are some questions about where he will play defensively.
23. Dodgers: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21)
Brecht has been a much better strike thrower down the stretch, with just over 4 BB/9 over his last six appearances, dropping his season rate to 5.6 per nine.
24. Braves: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 33)
His chase rate scares some teams, but he has power and some speed as a backstop who can catch and throw. A bit of an enigmatic, it’s hard to find a home for him, but he received the most votes for best receiver in the class in the executive poll.
25. Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS, Oklahoma (No. 28)
One of many high school weapons in the first-round mix, and one of many that could go higher than that.
26. Yankees: Jurrangelo Cjintje, SWP, Mississippi State (No. 31)
This is not just a novelty because of the switch-pitch. Cjintje will most likely be right-handed only at the next level and the thing is electric; don’t be shocked to hear his name higher than that.
27. Phillies: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (No. 24)
Teams still value the underlying data and he has improved his defense. But it’s hard to know where to place a guy who’s a second-year eligible Stanford product (will signability be an issue?), let alone one who’s only hitting .255.
28. Astros: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (No. 32)
He made a ton of contact and put up a .939 OPS for Kansas State; a move to third base is likely.
29. D guards: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (No. 39)
Big helium alert here! Waldschmidt was an impressive performer with a 1.141 OPS, 13 home runs and 23 steals. A strong performance in the SEC allows him to quickly climb the ranks.
30. Rangers: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, Louisiana (No. 12)
He’s still our top-ranked high school senior, but he’s another tough prep pitcher to place.