As the new FLiRT family of coronavirus subvariants takes hold, early signs point to a summer surge in cases.
So how bad could it get?
So far, experts are cautiously optimistic, saying the numbers are in line with expectations and there are currently no signs of alarm.
But the new variants are a reminder that the coronavirus remains a major health risk for some, even as much of the world tries to overcome the pandemic. Although California’s COVID numbers look relatively good, officials say the increase in FLiRT shows the need to remain vigilant with basic safety measures.
“For the majority of people, it’s not a big deal. But for some people, it’s a big deal,” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, said of the COVID-19. “I’m always cautious around older people, especially as their immunity wanes, with more cases.”
Learn more: There is a new, highly transmissible variant of COVID-19. Could FLiRT lead to an uptick in summer?
And COVID can also cause life-altering symptoms in young adults.
“COVID is not an ordinary flu or cold,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. “It can have long-term effects, with long COVID symptoms, which make it very different from other viruses that we encounter,” adding that people in their 30s and 40s appear to be more susceptible to long COVID.
As for the new subvariants, experts generally believe that they are more contagious than previous strains, which explains why they are supplanting the dominant JN.1 from winter.
And unlike the annual fall/winter cold and flu season, COVID has shown itself to have two peaks each year, one of which is in the summer.
COVID waves in California last summer and winter were still large enough to cause significant disruptions, including outbreaks in schools, among sports teams and at Hollywood studios, while some businesses saw a higher number of workers reporting illness.
And the risk may remain serious for older or immunocompromised people. COVID-19 still kills more than the flu, with more than 43,000 deaths reported since October 1, compared to about 25,000 for the flu. According to CDC data from February, more than 95% of people hospitalized with COVID-19 had not received the updated vaccine, introduced in September.
Learn more: Despite its “nothing at all” reputation, COVID-19 remains deadlier than the flu
But for COVID-19 to become a health problem again, there would need to be a clear change in hospitalizations and deaths. COVID deaths have continued to decline: For the 12-month period that ended in early spring, there were about 66,000 deaths nationally, half of the previous comparable period.
And that’s a significant drop from the previous year, when there were 438,000 deaths from COVID-19 between spring 2021 and winter 2021-2022. There were 554,000 deaths during the pandemic year that began in spring 2020.
But even with lower mortality, there can be high numbers of infections, which may not be serious enough to require hospitalization but can still cause widespread disruption to daily life – since the cancellation of vacations and weddings interrupted until labor shortages due to illness.
Those who become ill may still suffer the discomfort of being seriously ill for weeks.
Hudson said she sees most new COVID-19 cases among outpatients, rather than those requiring hospitalization.
Learn more: COVID is increasing in California. Here’s how to protect yourself from FLiRT subvariants
How big a COVID surge could be this summer remains unclear. But there are signs pointing to an earlier-than-usual start to the COVID-related summer season.
The California Department of Public Health noted that the rate of positive COVID test results has slowly increased over the past month. For the seven-day period that ended Monday, 4.8% of coronavirus tests came back positive in California; a month ago, the rate was 1.9%. Last summer’s peak was 12.8% at the end of August.
The agency also noted that virus levels in wastewater suggest an increase in several areas of the state. Virus levels in wastewater in most of Northern California’s most populous county, Santa Clara County, are now considered “high” for the first time since winter.
An uptick in COVID cases in Los Angeles County also continues. On Thursday, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said it recorded between 93 and 100 coronavirus cases per day during the week ended May 22, the most recent data available. There were 60 to 80 new cases per day between March 25 and May 9. The counts reflect tests done at medical facilities and do not include at-home tests or people who do not get tested.
“It is still too early to say whether this slight increase in recent weeks will turn into a sustained rise, as case numbers are low and daily trends vary,” the Health Ministry said in a statement to The Times.
For the week ending May 18, the most recent period for which data was available, coronavirus levels in Los Angeles County wastewater were 11% of last winter’s peak, down from 9 % the previous week.
Since most of the increase in COVID cases is not among people hospitalized, “this is good news because it means we have the capacity to care for other patients in our hospitals,” Hudson said . “Most of these outpatient cases present with usual cough and cold symptoms, so it is important for everyone to test themselves if they develop these types of symptoms.”
By July 4, we may have a better idea of how bad this summer will be, she said.
“So far we don’t see any signs of a larger wave,” Hudson said. “In years past, summer waves of COVID have tended to peak around July 4, so we have a few weeks left before we know for sure what that wave might look like.”
While COVID levels in California wastewater have declined over the past two summers, they actually increased between the winter of 2022-2023 and last winter, thanks to a particularly contagious variant.
Wastewater data suggests that last winter’s COVID wave — in terms of virus levels in wastewater across California — was the worst since the first Omicron wave began in fall 2021.
LA County, however, has bucked this trend. Coronavirus levels in wastewater last winter were lower than the previous season.
“Whether COVID cases continue to decline this summer compared to 2023 will depend on several factors, including the transmissibility of variants, pre-existing immunity and vaccination coverage,” the County Department of Public Health said. Los Angeles in a statement to the Times.
It is especially important that the elderly and immunocompromised receive at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine since the formula was last updated in September, Chin-Hong said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says everyone 6 months and older should have received at least one updated shot since September, and two shots for people 65 and older who are four month of their first updated dose.
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This story was originally published in the Los Angeles Times.