Ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum will become Mexico’s first female leader after winning a landslide election victory, but the scale of her victory has unnerved some investors, who sold the peso over fears of sweeping constitutional change .
Sheinbaum, a former left-wing mayor of Mexico City, triumphed by a margin of more than 30 percentage points over her closest rival, entrepreneur Xóchitl Gálvez, of the main center-right opposition alliance, according to official results with more than 84 percent of votes counted. Monday.
A longtime political activist and former climate scientist, Sheinbaum campaigned on a promise to continue the pro-worker policies of her close ally and mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But when she takes office on October 1, she will face daunting challenges, including a high murder rate, strained public finances and how to follow one of America’s most charismatic and politically successful leaders. the modern history of Mexico.
After a campaign marked by election-related violence, Sheinbaum pledged in her initial remarks to govern for all, preserve democracy, respect business freedom and facilitate private investment.
“My government will be honest, without influence or corruption, it will be a government of republican austerity,” she told her supporters, referring to López Obrador’s widely publicized preference for living simply and spending time with people. ordinary people.
US President Joe Biden congratulated Sheinbaum and said he looked forward to working closely with her “in a spirit of partnership and friendship that reflects the enduring ties between our two countries.” The White House statement reflects the importance of the U.S.-Mexico relationship on trade, immigration and security in a year marked by elections on both sides of the border.
Investors worry that a larger-than-expected victory for Sheinbaum’s Morena party, founded a decade ago by López Obrador, and two allied parties in congressional elections also held on Sunday, increases the chances of changes constitutional amendments aimed at removing certain checks and balances on governmental power.
As Sheinbaum’s supporters celebrated in Mexico City’s historic central plaza, the Mexican peso fell 3.3 percent to 17.62 against the dollar, its lowest level since November, while the CPI stock index was down 4.8 percent.
“The result opens up a scenario of greater political risk and uncertainty for (companies),” political risk firm Integralia said. “The threats to Mexico’s system of checks and balances are greater. »
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The opposition had suggested before the vote that it was doing better than polls indicated, so the scale of its defeat came as a surprise.
Citi analysts described a “big gap between the elite narrative and the reality on the ground,” adding: “López Obrador’s successes in reducing poverty and inequality, the extraordinary increase in cash transfers, the ‘increase in real wages and the domination of (political) power’. ) speech . . . made Morena indomitable in this election.
Early results also showed Morena won Mexico City’s mayoral election and would win most of the eight state governorships in the country of nearly 130 million people.
The scale of Morena’s victory and her relentless quest for power at all levels have prompted some critics to compare her to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), where López Obrador cut his political teeth and which has governed Mexico continuously for 71 years until 2000.
“The PRI is back,” said Arturo Sarukhán, a Washington-based consultant and former Mexican ambassador to the United States. Referring to Morena’s campaign color, he added: “The only difference now is that the PRI has donned a purple suit.”
Some supporters focused on the historic nature of Sheinbaum’s victory in a country with a long tradition of male chauvinismwearing fake presidential sashes with the slogan “We Women Got Here Together.”
Julieta Velazquez, a 33-year-old lawyer, said she was “extremely happy” after hearing the results. “I believe in (Sheinbaum) as a woman and this is definitely the change Mexico needs.”
Last year, the country overtook China as the largest exporter of goods to the United States. But the president-elect faces Mexico’s worst budget deficit since the 1980s, the result of López Obrador’s expanded social programs and major infrastructure projects, such as a new oil refinery.
Sheinbaum must also combat a wave of criminal violence, with nearly 220,000 people killed or missing under López Obrador’s presidency, guarantee the rule of law and invest in infrastructure to overcome severe water and electricity shortages .
A polling station in the state of Mexico was set on fire on Election Day and two others were shot. Around 175 other people were unable to operate due to threats. At least 36 candidates were killed during the campaign, amid increased criminal control of Mexican politics.
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Sheinbaum, 61, has vowed to closely follow the policies of López Obrador, a charismatic populist who has doubled the minimum wage and strengthened social programs. López Obrador revealed on February 20 the constitutional changes he wants to make before leaving office. He now has the opportunity to sign them into law in September, when the new Congress is sworn in, before handing over to Sheinbaum.
López Obrador hailed the result as a “glorious day” for Mexico and rejected claims that his party only won the election thanks to large cash handouts.
“I would ask them: ‘Isn’t that the purpose of government?’ To try to get budget money, which is the people’s money, to everyone, and preferably to the poorest? he said during his daily press conference.
Sheinbaum also supports López Obrador’s proposed expansion of the military into activities usually carried out by civilians, with generals running the National Guard, airports, ports and customs.
She supports controversial proposals such as popular elections for Supreme Court judges and electoral institute directors, saying they would help expand democracy. These proposals alarmed civil rights groups, but are now more likely to pass, given the congressional results.
López Obrador could not run again because the constitution prohibits re-election. The president has announced he will retire to his southern ranch, but many Mexicans believe he will remain active in national politics.