“They’re just better.” In the end, they are better than any team we have faced. It’s the final, and we just have to be better.
Dallas’ PJ Washington summed up the first two games of the 2024 NBA Finals perfectly – the Celtics just got better. The Washington Mavericks are not out of this series – just three years ago, Phoenix won the first two games against Milwaukee but the Bucks have the banner – however, some fundamental things need to change starting in Game 3 or else this series will end sooner than expected.
What are these things? Let’s go ahead and break down Game 3 of the NBA Finals, which returns to Dallas on Wednesday night.
NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Odds
Boston Celtics (+114) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-135)
Spread: Mavericks -2.5 | O/U: 213
NBC Sports betting analysts Jay Croucher, Drew Dinsick and Vaughn Dalzell presented their favorite picks for Game 3including lots of love from Jayson Tatum.
Yes, Dallas will be better in Game 3. However, Game 3 so far in the playoffs has been a showcase event for Jayson Tatum and it’s hard to believe this series is happening without a performance from the Celtics’ biggest star.
Jayson Tatum OVER 5.5 assists (-142)
Has achieved this figure in three of the last four games, including 12 in the second game of the finals
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Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 rebounds (-110)
Crossing that mark in 10 of Boston’s 14 playoff games, he pulled down 11 rebounds in the opener against Dallas.
Injury News, Updates
• Kristaps Porzingis will be a game-time decision due to a “tear of the medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibial tendon”. What this means in English is that the structure that holds the tendons running from the ankle to the foot in place is damaged, allowing things to move, causing instability and pain.
He is officially listed as questionable. Porzingis wants to play, but Boston’s doctors have the final say. Given the injury and the timing, it seems likely that Porzingis won’t play in Game 3, but we won’t know for sure until less than an hour before kickoff.
• Luka Doncic received a painkiller injection before Game 2 to help him play despite the chest bruising he suffered in Game 1, and he is expected to receive another injection before Game 3 and then play .
Three things to watch in Game 3
1) The Kristaps Porzingis effect
The minute Kristaps Porzingis took the court in Game 1, his value in these Finals became clear: He was knocking down 3s, setting up smaller players, and providing another level of shot blocking that clearly bothered Kyrie Irving and the rest of the team. The non-conformists. After two matches in the final, he is at +25. The Celtics as a team are +25.
As noted in the injury report above, Porzingis will be a game decision due to a rare foot and ankle injury. The team doctor will make the call.
“For my part, like I said, nothing will stop me unless I’m told I’m not allowed to play,” Pozingis said.
If he plays, even if he’s somewhat limited, it’s still a huge boost for the Celtics because of the floor spacing and rim protection he provides.
If he doesn’t play — which seems the most likely option — that opens the door for a more aggressive Dallas team to attack the paint on offense and help more on defense.
Without Porzingis on the court, this series has been balanced – Dallas will take it.
2) Kyrie Irving needs to be better
Talk about Kyrie Irving in the 2016 NBA Finals and let’s talk about the Game 7 shot that sealed Cleveland’s victory. Or we talk about how in Games 3-5 of this series, he averaged 35 points per game and shot 50% from 3 during that stretch.
What gets lost in time is that he struggled in the first two games of this series – he scored 36 points in the two games and needed 36 shots to get there.
Dallas needs Irving to turn things around. Over two games in these Finals, Irving averaged 14 points per night on 35.1% shooting, including 0 of 8 from 3. Irving has recognized his struggles and knows what he needs to do.
“I can be a lot more fundamentally sound, technical on my shots, not get into the paint a lot where there’s three or four guys around me, I’m not passing,” Irving said. “They are sending specific strategies against me to make things difficult.”
Boston isn’t making it easy for Irving, sending him an elite defender in Jrue Holiday. That’s not going to change, but Irving has made tough shots against good defenders throughout his career.
Dallas needs more than Irving to step up and play better, but it starts with the team’s second-best player setting the tone.
3) Is Dallas playing like a desperate team?
Game 3 is a must-win for Dallas.
Technically, if the Mavs lose, there will be a Game 4 Friday night (and maybe even a game afterward), but the series will be over in the truest sense of the word. No team has ever come back from 0-3 in the NBA Playoffs, and Boston is too good and too deep to become the first team to blow that kind of lead.
Dallas must play desperately. This kind of game can wake up a team. Dallas needs him to help them in specific areas.
• Wake up the role players and have them hit 3s. The Mavericks not named Doncic are shooting 15.6% (5 of 32) from 3 in this series, and 29 of those 32 attempts have been classified as open or wide open (this which means the closest defender is at least four feet away, as followed by Second Specter). Dallas needs to be better.
• Play with more pace – Dallas is at its best when running, Boston has stifled that for most of the first two games.
• What happened to the Spanish pick-and-rolls and double drag picks that Dallas thrived with against Minnesota? Why did Dallas move away from what worked?
• Take advantage of confrontations, especially if Porzingis is absent. For example, the Celtics tried to hide Jayson Tatum on Mavericks center Daniel Gafford last game, and he took advantage, scoring 11 points in the second half. Boston has good defenders across the board, making it more imperative that the Mavericks exploit the mismatches they experience.
• Make your free throws. Dallas missed eight in the second game (16 of 24) in a game it lost by seven.
• Take care of the ball. The Mavericks turned the ball over 15 times in Game 2, which Boston converted for 21 points. Dallas can’t give away points like that.