No one will say how fast the pitchers the Orioles use can go, only that they replicate what can be thrown in a game, sometimes in exaggerated fashion.
Whatever the answer, that’s what Jackson Holliday has asked for in his drill job at Triple-A Norfolk as he corrects some of the deficiencies revealed by his time in the major leagues.
“He’s incredibly impressive with some of the challenges that you come up with in practice,” Orioles director of player development Anthony Villa told me last week. “He finds a way to continue to solve problems. … The way he continues to attack with speed is very impressive. We just dial it in and it keeps making adjustments.
Sustained, consistent speed was one of the few challenges Holliday faced during his fortnight with the Orioles, and more than a month after being drafted, he had the opportunity to work to address all of those deviations. His adjustments were noticeable from the start and have been somewhat toned down since, according to his own words.
As the Orioles evaluate his progress toward a potential return to the majors, they will look at many factors. Reports from their player development team will be part of this. Opportunities at the major league level will also be significant. But they will also look at the numbers, many of which are now available via Statcast. Here’s what they might find in a few key areas.
Facing tough four-seams
Entering Thursday’s game, Holliday had seen 81 four-seam fastballs 95 mph or faster in 23 plate appearances, meaning he’s faced that kind of speed in less than one plate appearance per match since he was sent off on April 26. Of those pitches, 21 were in the strike zone.
In total, he put seven in play, with a single and a double, and whiffed five times in 20 swings. Just on those in the zone, he tipped to 13 and whiffed three. This happened after Holliday swung seven four-seamers over 95 mph in the big leagues and whiffed six.
Part of the Orioles’ directive for Holliday was to shorten some of his loading and movement patterns to allow him to be on time for the consistent high velocity he will see in the majors. Statistically, the actual and expected results do not demonstrate much improvement in this area. Villa said they put as much importance on pre-match work as results when swing changes like this happen.
“It shows up more in training, early on,” Villa said. “What you’re working on is going to take a little longer to translate into the games, so what he does in the cage, what he does in BP, you start to see it and then trickle down to the games in different situations – just like, again, continuing to figure out how to attack that speed, especially pitchers that might come into play later in the game. But it’s nice to see him continue to be himself and s. Sticking to his strengths as well. He controlled the strike zone extremely well and kept a good attitude while continuing to work.
Check the edges
Holliday has always judged the strike zone well, and that didn’t change this time around in Norfolk. He made 18.2 percent of pitches outside the zone, although chasing wasn’t entirely the problem as he got his feet under him in the majors. It was on the fringes of the strike zone that Holliday found himself taking strikes and falling behind in counts, forcing him into protection mode and putting him at the mercy of big league pitchers.
Prior to his call-up to the major leagues, Holliday did quite well in this zone, known as “the shade,” which baseballsavant.com presents as being about 3.3 inches outside at 3 .3 inches inside the edge of the strike zone. He made 45.2% of those pitches before his call-up to Norfolk, then 41.9% of them in the majors.
Today he’s hitting 45.1% of them again, but without as much statistical success as his last go-around in Norfolk. In the minors, at least, he swings more often on pitches in this zone that are inside the strike zone than on those outside, so he continues to display control of the strike zone. hitting that the Orioles expect from their hitters.
At this point, he’s not doing more to protect the areas where major league pitchers have been coming at him during these two weeks with the Orioles. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as the Orioles aren’t going to abandon their emphasis on decisive decisions to thwart a tough two weeks in the big leagues with one of their prized prospects.
The goal of not swinging at these pitches, however, is to get pitchers to the heart of the plate, where batters do the most damage.
Heart of plate
Somewhat surprisingly, Holliday doesn’t do as much damage to the heart of the plate as expected. He’s pretty good at not swinging balls, but on those pitches above the white part of the plate that the Orioles expect their hitters to drive, Holliday didn’t do as well as in his previous move to Triple-A.
Prior to his call-up (late 2023 and early 2024), Holliday hit .354 with a .585 slugging percentage on pitches to the heart of the plate for the Tides, with expected stats in line. He had a whiff rate of 12.4% and an average exit velocity of 95.2 mph on pitches in that zone.
Since returning to the Tides, he is hitting .297 (versus a .245 expected batting average) with a .453 slugging percentage (versus a .419 expected slugging percentage) on pitches to the heart of the plate, with a whiff rate of 20.3% and an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph.
He’s been swinging at these pitches a little more often since his demotion – 73.4% of the time compared to 69.3% in Triple-A before making his major league debut. The major league average on pitches in these areas this year is 73%, and Holliday has hit 77% of them in the majors.
However, we are talking about small samples where a lot has changed. Holliday told The Banner late last month that he spent the last two weeks with a swing and setup more like his old one, and since then the results have been much better.
Overall, he was hitting .252 with an .844 OPS since returning to Norfolk before Thursday’s game. Those are good results for someone Holliday’s age at this level. However, it will take a lot more to get him called up, and that’s the goal as he returns to the majors.
Villa said: “I think it continues on the path of progress. We understand that during these development windows there may be times when stats are irrelevant, and that’s okay. We’re not always concerned that players have to win that night to win a little bit more in the long game and understand that’s what we’ve all been thinking about collectively and think will be the case in the end. ‘future.