Three shows are expected to win big at the 2024 Tony Awards.
David Adjmi’s “Stereophonic” is a shoo-in for Best Play and will make Tony history by being the first play to win Best Music, awarded by Will Butler. Adam Guettel’s music for “Days of Wine and Roses” deserves to win this award, but the Tony nominating committee, in one of its biggest mistakes ever, failed to nominate ” Days” for best musical, which happens to be the best musical of all time. not only 2023-24, but also a few previous Broadway seasons. Daniel Aukin also has a chance to win Best Director for his smooth ensemble work in “Stereophonic.”
Where Adjmi’s play, about a rock band trying to record an album, might fail on Sunday is in the best actor and featured actress categories. No less than five actors were nominated. Competing nominees include Will Brill, Juliana Canfield, Eli Gelb, Tom Pecinka and Sarah Pidgeon. They will cut each other’s votes, giving the Tony for best featured actor to Corey Stoll, who plays the son of a racist U.S. senator in “Appropriate.” Both Stoll and Pecinka should be in the lead actor category, with Pecinka’s rock star performance being one of the most memorable performances of the season. But that’s just my opinion. Recently, the Lucille Lortel Awards awarded Outstanding Featured Performer to Gelb in “Stereophonic.” So you see the problem this ensemble faces at the Tonys.
Kara Young wins Best Actress in a Play for her incredibly crazy role in “Purlie Victorious.” Once again, her performance was truly a lead performance. The show ended a few months ago, which was never a plus for Tony voters, but it has the benefit of being on PBS.
“Appropriate” will be one of the other big winners of the evening. Not only does Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ comedy about racism win Best Featured Actor, Sarah Paulson’s star turn in “Appropriate” wins the Tony for Best Actress in a Play.
I can’t disagree with “Appropriate” or “Purlie Victorious” getting the Tony for revival of a play, but sometimes the word “best” can mean many things. Since its world premiere in 2013, Jacobs-Jenkins’ play has received numerous productions across the country. Unfortunately, the story of “Purlie Victorious” is very different. After the Ossie Davis comedy about a snarky preacher closed in 1962, it all but disappeared. The 2023 Broadway revival brought back an important work of American theater, making it a major challenger to “Appropriate.” A recent citation of excellence from the New York Drama Critics’ Circle also gives “Purlie Victorious” plenty of oxygen among Tony voters.
“Merrily We Roll Along,” the third big winner of the evening, received the Tony for best revival of a musical. Tony voters like to give the award for best direction of a musical to the director of a revival, and “Merrily” director Maria Friedman will follow Marianne Elliott’s win in 2022 for her work on another Stephen classic Sondheim, “Company.” Expect the “Merrily” triumvirate of Jonathan Groff, Daniel Radcliffe and Lindsay Mendez to win Best Actor, Featured Actor and Featured Actress in a Musical, respectively.
The open question is which show will win best musical. Out-of-town presenters, those who book runs at theaters outside of New York City, make up by far the largest voting bloc at the Tonys. They like the imprimatur of a Tony to help them sell a musical to their local audience. “Water for Elephants” will get most of their votes, thanks to its name recognition, Cirque du Soleil acrobatics and all those adorable animal puppets.
For out-of-town presenters, the other Best Music nominees present challenges. “Hell’s Kitchen” tells the story of a spoiled mixed-race girl who has no idea that she is privileged. “Illinoise” tells the story of a young homosexual whose first lover commits suicide. “Suffs” organizes the first women’s march in Washington, D.C. And “The Outsiders” simply has no chance of winning.
Since “Hell’s Kitchen” features songs from superstar Alicia Keys (but not enough original songs to get a nomination for best music), it has a distinct advantage. Plus, of the five nominees, it’s the highest grosser at the box office, and money is everything for out-of-town presenters. With “Days of Wine and Roses” out of the picture, “Suffs” deserves to win the Best Musical Tony award. Additionally, Leigh Silverman’s direction for this feminist musical handles several plotlines with ease, efficiency and, yes, real elegance. She is expected to win the Tony for best director of a musical.
The Tonys, like the Oscars, tend to reward the best actor, not the best actor. That would seem to give the edge for best actor in a play to Michael Stuhlbarg, who devours the stage every night in “Patriots.” Jeremy Strong, giving a very understated performance in “An Enemy of the People,” will defy conventional logic to win this Tony. His show’s SRO status also helps Strong’s chances, with “Patriots” being a surprising disappointment at the box office. My favorite in this best actor category is William Jackson Harper, who presents a most unusual and captivating doctor in “Uncle Vanya.”
The Tonys will look to honor ‘Suffs’ quadruple threat talent Shaina Taub. Taub won best musical theater book. She also has a bit of sympathy for her. The Tonys made the mistake of not nominating her for Best Actress in a Musical.
In this category, Kelli O’Hara will receive the Tony. Her performance in “Days of Wine and Roses” as an alcoholic wife and mother was one for the ages.
Sometimes Tony nominators don’t follow their own logic. Take the best director categories. Jessica Stone, Justin Peck and Whitney White are nominated for their work on “Water for Elephants,” “Illinoise” and “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” respectively. However, no artist from these productions is nominated. Meanwhile, directors Scott Ellis and Rebecca Frecknall failed to gain recognition despite Ellis’s “Doubt” receiving three acting nominations and Frecknall’s “Cabaret” receiving four acting nominations . Something doesn’t make sense here.
The 77th Tony Awards aired live from the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS and Paramount+.