Flyweights on parade!
OK, that might not be the official slogan for UFC Vegas 93, but it might as well be considering the abundance of 125ers competing on Saturday. On the men’s side, you have headliners Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira—No. 12th and 13th respectively in the world MMA fight rankings, plus Asu Almabayev against Jose Johnson (who has made weight despite being 6 feet tall) and Jimmy Flick against Nate Maness, while women’s flyweights Carli Judice and Gabriella Fernandes are also in action.
(If you’re wondering what happened to arguably the second most intriguing matchup on the card, Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van, that one is canceled after Ulanbekov lost more than three pounds.)
As we saw recently with Steve Erceg, it only takes a few solid wins to earn a flyweight title shot, so a contender could see his stock skyrocket with an impressive performance this weekend. Maybe it’s Perez who should experience a resurgence after a huge knockout of Matheus Nicolau, or it could be 24-year-old Taira who continues his unblemished march to UFC gold.
As usual, when keeping an eye on the 125-pound division, it’s best not to blink.
What: UFC Vegas 93
Or: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday June 15. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
By far, this is the toughest test of Tatsuro Taira’s career. It’s likely that Alex Perez’s veteran acumen will be too much for the Japanese prodigy, but if you think Taira is a future title challenger, then he’s an easy choice. In the UFC, Perez has only lost to champions (Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo), a top prospect (Muhammad Mokaev), and an all-time great contender (Joseph Benavidez). We could look back on Saturday’s main event as the moment Taira staked her claim to membership among these luminaries.
Without thinking too much about it, Taira is the choice here. Perez is definitely more seasoned, having faced the best 125ers of his generation, but he’s also always had one glaring flaw: grappling defense. Anyone who has watched Taira for two minutes can tell you that grappling is his specialty, which is bad news for Perez.
Even when it’s Perez initiating the fight, he hasn’t been able to consistently avoid submission attempts, and Taira will make sure he has plenty to think about there. It should also be noted that Taira is incredibly strong, so even if Perez’s technique is on point, Taira could just power through and intimidate him.
Perez wins a standing battle, but it won’t last long enough for it to matter. Taira by submission in the third round.
Take: Tyra
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns
Miles Johns is a perfectly adequate all-around player who needs time to get his offense going. That won’t be enough against Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Having the ability to put Silva de Andrade on his back is always a plus, and you might see Johns go to the well early as he focuses on neutralizing the Brazilian’s dangerous strike. Johns knows how to fight smart, so he won’t force anything or give Silva de Andrade openings to counter.
Unfortunately for Johns, his lack of next-level finishing ability means that “D’Silva” will be a constant threat to force him into fights. Silva de Andrade will happily take two to land one, an exchange that often works in his favor. Johns can only play mouse for so long before the cat gets its claws on him.
After a five-minute feel-out process, Silva de Andrade returned in the second round and knocked out Johns.
Take: Silva de Andrade
Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
Has Lucas Almeida learned how to stop a takedown? Because if he hasn’t done it, it’s going to be a hindrance.
It’s no secret Almeida wants to get up and punch. He and his team would be thrilled if Timmy Cuamba wanted to join hands, a strategy that would certainly backfire on “Twilight.” Although Almeida has failed to impress in his last two outings, when he is in play he is a dynamic striker who can finish with a variety of techniques.
When he’s off his feet, to be exact, he’s a liability. As long as Cuamba isn’t too aggressive and focuses on positioning rather than submission, he has a clear path to victory. Withdrawals, withdrawals and more withdrawals are the order of the day for Cuamba. Returning to featherweight, he should have no trouble muscling Almeida to the mat, then rinsing and repeating that sequence until the judges have made their decision.
Take: Cuamba
Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield
One thing you have to give credit to about Brady Hiestand is that he has a lot of heart. What is Ultimate Fighter 29 The finalist lacks experience, but more than makes up for it with raw strength and determination. Few fighters will enjoy going into deep waters with Hiestand in the future.
Garrett Armfield is one fighter who won’t mind seeing this scenario play out. His quirky stand-up style will keep Hiestand guessing, leaving Hiestand with no choice but to shoot from long range. Don’t be surprised if Armfield’s counter-wrestling results in Hiestand fighting behind his back.
Hiestand’s tenacity should save him from a finish, but Armfield’s strike sees him make a decision after three rounds.
Take: Armfield
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson
Without wishing to lump together all the fighters from Kazakhstan, Asu Almabayev is the last from this country to show a serious streak of nastiness once the cage door is closed. On the feet or on the ground, Almabayev always seeks to finish. He has a big challenge ahead of him in bantamweight transplant Jose Johnson.
I’m still not sure how the imposing Johnson beat the scales on Friday, but he overcame that significant hurdle and appears to be one of the most unorthodox opponents in the flyweight division. With a reach of 71.5 inches, Johnson is able to sting the average 125er with a few jabs and straight punches before he even has a chance to gauge distance. He has also produced some incredible knockouts on the regional scene, although that has yet to translate into the octagon.
Almabayev would be wise to take Johnson down and that’s what he will do if he feels even the slightest bit threatened. Johnson isn’t particularly good when it comes to defending takedowns or submissions, so it’s only a matter of time before Almabayev imposes his will in this fight.
Almabayev submits Johnson at the end of the first period.
Take: Almabaev
Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt
They may lack name value, but Josh Quinlan and Adam Fugitt are good choices to open the main card. Ideally because one or the other delivers a Performance of the Night worthy finish, or they work their way to a Fight of the Night bonus.
Fugitt’s pressure-heavy fighting style and Quinlan’s grappling-based offense should make for a compelling clash of styles. Will Quinlan set the tone from the start and keep Fugitt out of the starting gate? Or will Fugitt quickly get his hands on Quinlan and blast him into oblivion?
In this fight, size matters, and the bulkier Fugitt will find a way to outrun Quinlan’s punches to secure takedowns. On the mat, a steady diet of ground and pound will allow Fugitt to finish Quinlan in the first round.
Take: Fugitt
Foreplay
Jimmy Flick def. Nate Maness
Gabriella Fernandes def. Carli Justice
Jeka Saragih def. Westin Wilson
Melquizael Costa def. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Julia Polastri def. Josephine Knutsson