The Major League Baseball amateur draft is less than a month away. On July 14, the Cleveland Guardians will be part of the first overall selection for the first time in franchise history. The Guardians aren’t completely unfamiliar with picking at the top of the draft: They’ve picked second overall five times, most recently in 1992, when they selected right-hander Paul Shuey out of North Carolina. Who will replace Shuey (and four others) as the highest drafted player in franchise history?
At this point in the process, no one can say for sure. This includes the Guardians, who have apparently narrowed their list of candidates down to a handful of names. Ask any honest recruiting director and they will tell you that these decisions are rarely made in advance – especially in the Bonus Pool era, and especially when there are several comparable, defensible players to choose from . The Guardians themselves probably won’t have an answer until the final hours.
The draft is no longer an exercise in selecting the best player. Nowadays, it’s a math problem. Teams want to maximize the amount of talent they get for their money. Sometimes that means taking the best player, price be damned. However, more and more teams are spreading the money around in the hopes that they can catch a player who fails for financial reasons. Look no further than the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates for recent examples of this strategy, which we’ve taken to calling the portfolio approach. (It rolls right off the tongue, doesn’t it?)
Guardians director of scouting Ethan Purser, in his first year at the helm, will have the largest bonus pool in the draft at just over $18 million. The No. 1 pick has a $10.57 million bonus, but no player will demand that much: Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews, the top two picks last summer, became the first rookies to cross the $9 million threshold. It’s also safe to assume that the Guardians will leverage the top prospects in the class to get even more savings that they can deploy later in the draft; Mind you, Cleveland owns two other top-50 picks, at numbers 36 and 48, meaning a well-executed approach could see them cleaning up in the early stages of the draft.
With all of that established, we at CBS Sports wanted to highlight five players whose names are likely to come up in connection with the No. 1 pick between now and July 14. Below you will find these players, along with information. on their plays and why they may (or may not) be the first choice when the Guardians make their decision.
Note that players are presented in order of their perceived chances of becoming No. 1.
1. 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
We noted in our preseason rankings that other front offices thought the Guardians were in love with Bazzana, a optimized left-handed hitter with excellent barrel feel and oft-praised makeup. He then posted a monster season, batting .418/.581/.939 with 26 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and 39 more walks than strikeouts. There are valid reasons why Bazzana might not become No.1 this summer – namely, the Guardians preferring the price of a different player – but we have to imagine their fondness for him and his play did not. than strengthen yourself. Other teams still think he will be the pick, regardless of his value.
2. 3B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia
Condon is one of the few players in the country who can claim to have surpassed Bazzana. He entered the spring as someone who could force his way into the top five; He did just that, hitting .443/.558/1.043 with 35 homers and 11 more walks than strikeouts. He has a more aggressive approach than Bazzana and some of the other top collegiate bats in this class, but there’s no denying his innate strength or ability to score fastballs. Condon has played a lot of third base and center this season, and his stock could be higher in the Guardians’ eyes if they believe he can play either position, at least early in his career in the big league.
3. MIF JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
Wetherholt, our No. 1 prospect in the spring, suffered a hamstring injury during the opening weekend that cost him about half the season. As a rival recruiting director pointed out, this injury could have improved his chances of becoming No. 1 if it lowered his price to Cleveland’s liking. Wetherholt performed well when he could, hitting .356/.500/.664 with eight home runs and five steals in 31 games. His refined offensive skills are largely comparable to those of Bazzana, and he too should fit in at second base despite spending the spring playing shortstop.
4. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida
Caglianone is both the most intriguing two-way talent in the class and a polarizing prospect to anticipate for the future. As a hitter, he possesses massive strength and high-quality bat-ball skills that have allowed him to overcome a swing-happy approach; as a pitcher, his ability to hit the upper 90s was overshadowed by relief-caliber command. It seems reasonable to think that Caglianone will be asked to prioritize strikes at the next level, putting more pressure on him to refine his approach before more advanced pitchers have a chance to exploit him. The Guardians have relied heavily on first-round hitters with good plate discipline in recent years. Caglianone would be a departure.
5. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
There is a school of thought in progressive front offices, similar to Cleveland’s, that you shouldn’t take a pitcher in the first round because of their attrition rate and because it’s easier to develop a pitching at the professional level; hence the Orioles and Rays combining to take a pitcher with their final 15 first-round or extra-round picks. (Be careful, Purser, the aforementioned director of scouting, worked for the Rays’ scouting department before joining the Guardians.) The Guardians haven’t exactly bought into this theory, picking weapons with six of their last 10 rounds of first or additional. choice. As such, we can’t rule out the possibility that they consider Burns, owner of a high-quality fastball-slider combination and a 2.46 ERA in 95 innings, or perhaps even the southpaw of Arkansas Hagen Smith. Still, if we had to guess – and, as we’ve established, that’s all we or anyone can do at the moment – we’d say they’re unlikely to take the arm given the bats available.