Last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract extension, including $200 million guaranteed. He is now tied with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow for the highest average annual salary in the NFL.
Lawrence is just the latest young quarterback to take a hit. NFL teams continue to hand bigger and bigger contracts to signal callers who are due for extensions.
However, some of these major deals could come back to haunt the teams.
Here are several, made in the last two years, that are particularly likely to do so, with “blockbuster” defined as any deal worth at least $20 million per year and $80 million in total.
Terms: Five years, $275 million including $200 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)
Why they gave it to him: Lawrence was entering the final year of his rookie contract, the Jaguars obviously believe in him and they would prefer to save short-term cap space with the long-term flexibility that comes with a new contract.
Why they might regret it: They’re not exactly positioned to win in the short term anyway. They have yet to finish above 9-8 with Lawrence, who was the league’s 21st-highest rated passer during a disappointing third pro season in 2023. There’s a good chance the No. 1 overall in 2021 will never live up to his draft. threshing.
Terms: Four years, $180 million including $100 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)
Why they gave it to him: The Falcons have a stellar arsenal of weapons, most of which are relatively cheap at the moment. They clearly want to take advantage of this window before it’s too late and the rest of the offense becomes too costly.
Why they might regret it: Oddly, they spent a top-10 pick on Cousins’ eventual successor rather than giving him more support, and Cousins is far from a lock to lead them to success. Fresh off an Achilles injury before his age-36 season, he was a part of just one playoff victory during his NFL career.
Terms: Four years, $96 million including $34.6 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: He was a key cog just months away from becoming eligible for free agency.
Why they might regret it: There’s no denying his talent, but Gary is now 26 years old and five years into his career. He was never a first or second team All-Pro, nor a Pro Bowler. His numbers have not taken off and his consistency is sometimes lacking. Has it reached its peak?
Terms: Five years, $262.5 million including $218.7 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: Like Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, Herbert was about to get a lot more expensive. If you’re going to hitch your wagon to the guy for the long haul, you might as well create more cap flexibility.
Why they might regret it: Herbert’s passer rating has actually gone down or stayed the same every year thus far in his career. He was never a second-team All-Pro and was a Pro Bowler only once. He’s coming off a disappointing 2023 season and is now learning a whole new offense for a team that doesn’t seem too competitive. It’s hard to see this couple becoming anything great.
Terms: Five years, $255 million including $179.4 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: Hurts had just taken the Eagles to the Super Bowl in a magnificent season, and he was entering a contract year with no fifth-year option on the table.
Why they might regret it: This fantastic 2022 campaign may have been an anomaly for a quarterback who wasn’t a factor as a rookie, wasn’t good as a sophomore, and came back down to earth with an uneven 2024 season. It’s possible we’ve seen the best of him and the league has figured it out to some extent.
Terms: Five years, $260 million including $185 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: It was either that or the franchise tag, which would have been just as costly in the short term while leaving the Ravens vulnerable in the long term. Unless they had decided to separate.
Why they might regret it: While Jackson immediately put together an MVP campaign for the Ravens, he has yet to get them to the Super Bowl. Now it will become more expensive and the rest of the list will decrease accordingly. In addition, we are talking about a somewhat fragile quarterback, often exposed, who has failed to complete two of his last three seasons.
Terms: Four years, $160 million including $92 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: Beats me.
Why they might regret it: He’s a mediocre NFL quarterback by virtually every measure, and the sample size is no longer small. Jones hasn’t thrown more than 15 touchdown passes in a season since he was a rookie in 2019, and his cap count is now huge on a non-competitive roster.
Terms: Four years, $98 million including $75.5 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)
Why they gave it to him: His rookie contract had expired and the Ravens can’t afford to lose too much talent if they want to capitalize on this window with Lamar Jackson.
Why they might regret it: While Madubuike broke out with a career-high 13 sacks and a second-team All-Pro nod in 2023, this was his first campaign with even more than six sacks or even a single forced fumble. The 2020 third-round pick could very well be a one-year wonder.
Terms: Three years, $112.5 million including $75 million guaranteed (signed in 2023)
Why they gave it to him: The Jets were reaching for the stars with one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in NFL history.
Why they might regret it: Said accomplished quarterback is old and could be washed up. An Achilles injury cost the 40-year-old most of 2023, but he also wasn’t himself with Green Bay in 2022. Now, he seems to be causing drama again. This is unlikely to end well for Gang Green.
Terms: Four years, $110 million including $82.8 million guaranteed (signed in 2024)
Why they gave it to him: A good but not great team wanted to make a splash and improve their defense in free agency.
Why they might regret it: Wilkins, 28, is not a game changer. He was never an All-Pro of any kind or even a Pro Bowler, he never posted double-digit ballpark value and he never had a campaign with 10 sacks or more than two forced fumbles . And yet he will have over $30 million on the cap in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Contractual information courtesy of Observer.