2024 US OLYMPIC TRIALS
Thanks to Barry Revzin for running the numbers.
We’re eight sessions into the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials, which means we have a wealth of data to sift through between sessions. Before this competition started, we only had the input data, but now we have the actual results.
You may have heard superlatives like “fastest foreplay ever,” but let’s look at the numbers to see if that’s true or a gross exaggeration.
Who gives up, who adds, who does the testing?
This meeting is THE meet to achieve, and it’s a pressure cooker once the athletes get here. This is not a meet where many swimmers lose time, and the data reflects that.
| Band | Total athletes | Improved | % improvement | Cut made | % of cut made | |
| All | 1040 | 295 | 28.37% | 636 | 61.15% | 59.40), 100 Chest”}”> |
| Men | 593 | 185 | 31.20% | 375 | 63.24% | 59.40), 100 Chest”}”> |
| Women | 447 | 110 | 24.61% | 261 | 58.39% | 58.85), 100 Vol”}”> |
| Indiana | 80 | 24 | 30.00% | 51 | 63.75% | 1:45.38), 200 free”}”> |
| Sandpipers | 16 | 4 | 25.00% | 15 | 93.75% | 3:50.79), 400 free”}”>
Luke Ellis (3:54.33 -> 3:50.79), 400 free |
Among all athletes, only 27.22% abandoned their registration time. Liam Bell has the honor of having the biggest drop (percentage wise) so far in the competition. His fall of 2.26 seconds in the 100m breaststroke catapulted him from 43rd seed to 4th.
It’s another Bell who leads the rankings in women’s events. Lucy Bell lost 1.29 seconds in the 100m butterfly, dropping his place from 72nd to 19th.
We also divided the data into two other categories to answer some questions we had. Earlier this week, I speculated that the home crowd was pushing Indiana swimmers to remarkable races and that as a cohort, they are beating the average.
It should also be noted that the “Indiana” category encompasses all athletes representing LSC, not necessarily swimmers born and raised in the Hoosier State. That is why Chris Guiliano‘s improvement is at the top of the rankings here. The Notre Dame-trained swimmer is from Pennsylvania.
The addition of a Sandpipers category was something I presented to Barry as a joke, but it’s an interesting stat to see. Again, this only includes athletes currently representing the Sandpipers, so this line does not include alumni. Bella Sims which is registered with Florida. Only four Sandpipers have achieved better times so far, but the majority of them Ron Aitken-Trained swimmers underwent the test cut during their swims.
Tracking the number of athletes who successfully completed the testing events during competition is an interesting metric for tracking the level of performance displayed. Some athletes have targeted this competition and only recently reached the qualifying time, so it makes sense to see some regression when it comes time for the big competition.
Instead, consult the table which breaks it down by event:
| Event | Total athletes | Improved | % improvement | Cut made | % of cut made | |
| F 400 MEDLEY | 40 | 6 | 15.00% | 17 | 42.50% | 4:45.23)”}”>
Audrey Dérivaux (4:49.32 -> 4:45.23) |
| F 100 PAINT | 76 | 14 | 18.42% | 34 | 44.74% | 1:06.67)”}”>
Kaelyn Gridley (1:07.87 –> 1:06.67) |
| 100 F FREE | 56 | 11 | 19.64% | 38 | 67.86% | 55.03)”}”>
Lillie Nordmann (55.43 -> 55.03) |
| 200 F FREE | 50 | ten | 20.00% | 36 | 72.00% | 1:57.91)”}”>
Katie Crom (1:59.26 -> 1:57.91) |
| M 400 MEDLEY | 78 | 18 | 23.08% | 38 | 48.72% | 4:17.61)”}”>
Lévi Sandidge (4:22.85 -> 4:17.61) |
| 1500 F FREE | 37 | 9 | 24.32% | 24 | 64.86% | 16:27.05)”}”>
Mila Nikanorov (16:44.60 -> 16:27.05) |
| M 100 CHEST | 81 | 21 | 25.93% | 49 | 60.49% | 59.40)”}”> |
| M 100 RETURN | 75 | 20 | 26.67% | 46 | 61.33% | 54.67)”}”>
David King (55.51 –> 54.67) |
| F 100 FLY | 76 | 23 | 30.26% | 45 | 59.21% | 58.85)”}”> |
| M 200 FLY | 54 | 17 | 31.48% | 34 | 62.96% | 1:57.59)”}”>
Tommy Bried (2:00.43 -> 1:57.59) |
| F 100 RETURN | 63 | 20 | 31.75% | 31 | 49.21% | 58.79)”}”>
Joséphine Fuller (59.67 -> 58.79) |
| M 800 FREE | 52 | 17 | 32.69% | 39 | 75.00% | 7:56.47)”}”>
Sean Green (8:07.31 -> 7:56.47) |
| M100 FREE | 63 | 21 | 33.33% | 42 | 66.67% | 48.95)”}”>
Quintin McCarty (49.86 –> 48.95) |
| M200 FREE | 54 | 18 | 33.33% | 38 | 70.37% | 1:45.38)”}”> |
| 400 F FREE | 49 | 17 | 34.69% | 36 | 73.47% | 4:11.57)”}”>
Mila Nikanorov (4:15.33 -> 4:11.57) |
| M 200 CHEST | 76 | 27 | 35.53% | 53 | 69.74% | 2:11.78)”}”>
Gabe Nunziata (2:15.38 -> 2:11.78) |
| M 400 FREE | 60 | 26 | 43.33% | 36 | 60.00% | 3:50.79)”}”>
Luke Ellis (3:54.33 -> 3:50.79) |
Not every race in the Biggest Drop category earned a spot in the semifinals or finals, which speaks to the thesis that trials aren’t just about team selection; it’s also about giving the next generation the chance to rub shoulders with the best in a high-pressure production environment.
What gets the job done
Finally, let’s look at how the qualifying times for each round have changed. We’re going all the way back to 2012. You can draw your own conclusions in the comments, but I want to point out the most heinous statistic: the speed it took to make the Olympic team in the 100 fly. The 2nd place time was almost a full second faster, which seems absurd on paper but makes more sense when you remember that three generational talents all shot at the same time in that final.
The women’s 400m IM is an exception here. All the other 400 meter events have gotten faster to make the team, but the 400 IM seems to have taken a backseat.
The men’s and women’s 100m freestyle finals tonight, so we have unbiased data, but it’s interesting to note the difference between the preliminaries and semifinal qualifying times so far. Both events took a big step forward with 16th place, but the women’s event returned to near 2016 levels after the semi-finals. On the other hand, the men’s event was the fastest ever in the last four quads of both rounds so far.
Time to make the semi-finals
| Event | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| F 100 FLY | 59.87 | 59.87 | 59.05 | 58.73 |
| F 400 MEDLEY | 4:43.17 | 4:42.04 | 4:42.63 | 16:45.23 |
| M 200 CHEST | 2:13.87 | 2:14.70 | 2:13.14 | 2:12.02 |
| 100 F FREE | 55.38 | 55.32 | 55.22 | 54.72 |
| M100 FREE | 49.76 | 49.55 | 49.07 | 48.72 |
| M200 FREE | 1:49.71 | 1:48.63 | 1:48.15 | 1:47.39 |
| F 100 RETURN | 1:02.22 | 1:01.32 | 1:01.02 | 1:00.71 |
| F 100 PAINT | 1:09.39 | 1:08.54 | 1:09.00 | 1:08.81 |
| 1500 F FREE | N / A | N / A | 16:16.09 | 16:25.33 |
| 400 F FREE | 4:10.38 | 4:10.52 | 4:10.51 | 4:09.87 |
| 200 F FREE | 2:00.36 | 2:00.00 | 2:00.03 | 1:59.66 |
| M 100 CHEST | 1:01.80 | 1:01.41 | 1:00.81 | 1:00.80 |
| M 100 RETURN | 55.49 | 55.41 | 54.52 | 54.59 |
| M 800 FREE | N / A | N / A | 7:57.11 | 7:56.47 |
| M 400 MEDLEY | 4:19.33 | 16:15.41 | 16:17.60 | 16:17.35 |
| M 200 FLY | 2:00.03 | 1:58.70 | 1:58.37 | 1:58.37 |
| M 400 FREE | 3:49.89 | 3:50.52 | 3:49.49 | 3:48.63 |
Time to reach the finals
| Event | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| F 100 FLY | 58.72 | 58.81 | 58.21 | 57.97 |
| M 200 CHEST | 2:12 p.m. | 2:13.44 | 2:10.76 | 2:11.14 |
| 100 F FREE | 54.6 | 54.07 | 54.15 | 54.09 |
| M100 FREE | 49.03 | 49.18 | 48.73 | 48.11 |
| M200 FREE | 1:48.09 | 1:47.84 | 1:47.00 | 1:47.00 |
| F 100 RETURN | 1:00.76 | 1:00.46 | 1:00.18 | 59.33 |
| F 100 PAINT | 1:07.70 | 1:07.60 | 1:07.26 | 1:07.73 |
| 200 F FREE | 1:58.64 | 1:58.43 | 1:58.22 | 1:57.63 |
| M 100 CHEST | 1:00.83 | 1:00.30 p.m. | 1:00.36 | 59.78 |
| M 100 RETURN | 54.51 | 54.63 | 53.82 | 53.83 |
| M 200 FLY | 1:58.45 | 1:57.10 | 1:57.08 | 1:56.73 |
It’s time to make the Olympic team
| Event | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | 2024 |
| F 100 FLY | 57.57 | 57.21 | 56.43 | 55.52 |
| F 400 MEDLEY | 4:34.48 | 4:36.81 | 4:33.96 | 4:35.56 |
| M200 FREE | 1:46.88 | 1:47.53 | 1:46.49 | 1:46.09 |
| F 100 RETURN | 59.49 | 59.29 | 58.6 | 57.91 |
| F 100 PAINT | 1:05.99 | 1:06.07 | 1:05.28 | 1:06.10 |
| 400 F FREE | 16:04.18 | 16:00.65 | 4:04.86 | 4:02.08 |
| 200 F FREE | 1:58.40 | 1:57.65 | 1:57.61 | 1:57.05 |
| M 100 CHEST | 13:00.15 | 59.26 | 58.74 | 59.16 |
| M 100 RETURN | 52.86 | 52.28 | 52.48 | 52.72 |
| M 800 FREE | N / A | N / A | 7:49.94 | 7:45.19 |
| M 400 MEDLEY | 4:07.89 | 16:11.02 | 4:10.33 | 16:09.39 |
| M 400 FREE | 3:47.83 | 3:44.66 | 3:48.17 | 3:45.76 |
What happens next?
There are still nine sessions remaining, including this morning, so stay tuned for more data analysis throughout the week.