J.P. Crawford (SEA): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, 2 BB.
The AL West-leading Mariners have found success this year thanks to their phenomenal pitching staff. The club’s collective ERA of 3.42 is fifth-best in the majors. Conversely, the offense struggled mightily, scoring the sixth-fewest points of any team. That scenario was flipped last night in Cleveland. The offense stole the show in the team’s 8-5 victory, led by J.P. Crawfordit’s phenomenal 2-3, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI, 2 BB showing.
After breaking out with a 134 wRC+ last year, Crawford has struggled to match that performance in 2024. He’s slashing .208/.305/.375 with seven homers, which equates to an exact 100 wRC+ average in the league.
Not only was Crawford’s day at the plate good on the surface, but the underlying metrics are an encouraging sign that he could yet return to last year’s level of production. His three batted ball events were smoked with exit velocities eclipsing over 100 mph, adding to his career-best hard hit rate of 39.3%. This hard-hit bar increased for the third consecutive season, as did its barrel price, which now stands at 7.6%.
Despite the better quality of contact, Crawford’s contact results inexplicably suffered. His .234 BABIP is 60 points below his career average, and he underperformed his Statcast expected stats by a decent margin.
Crawford’s overall profile looks like a decent buy in deep leagues, especially since he’s recognized as Seattle’s leadoff hitter. In 12-team and shallower formats, you can probably leave him on waivers until he starts stringing together those kinds of performances, but he’s at least worth putting on your watch list .
Let’s see how the other hitters did on Tuesday:
Jesus Sanchez (MIA): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Sánchez finished three times in the cycle, collecting all three of his hits against the Cardinals veteran Lance Lynn. At 26 years old and with plenty of opportunities to remain in the middle of Miami’s lineup, I thought this might finally be the year Sánchez would reach a new level of performance, but that hasn’t been the case . His .241/.286/.365 slash line is particularly disappointing given the sheer pop of his bat. Sánchez’s hard hit and barrel rates are both above the 80th percentile among big leaguers, and his .349 xwOBA far exceeds his actual .287 wOBA.
Dylan Moore (SEA): 2-4, 2B, RH, 3R, RBI, BB, SB.
Crawford wasn’t the only Seattle infielder to have a big Tuesday night. Moore also got in on the action with a combo meal. He stole second base against Triston McKenzie in the third inning before hitting against Cade Smith in the sixth. Moore is one of the best utilities in baseball, and I don’t think I realized how good he was. Moore has posted a wRC+ of 105 or better in four of the last five seasons while playing all over the field. He’s not a household name, but we shouldn’t underestimate the value he brings to the Mariners.
Brenton Doyle (COLLAR): 4-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
A 7-run ninth inning led to an incredible Dodgers victory last night, stealing the headlines from Doyle’s remarkable performance. His four hits weren’t even the best part of his night—this take was. The Rockies center fielder has become a solid all-around player in his second season in the major leagues. He’s slashing .274/.342/.407 with six homers and 18 steals, and that’s without even mentioning his elite center fielding and solid baserunning.
Mark the winds (NYM): 3-4, RH, 3 R, RBI.
The 183.2 mph Vientos circuit Michael Lorenzen set a new season maximum exit velocity for the young Mets third baseman, and he now has a .400 wOBA and 166 wRC+ in 112 plate appearances. This level of performance solidified his hold on the Mets third base position. It is available in most fantasy leagues—69% of Yahoo! leagues and 91% of ESPN leagues—and worth a look if you need power from your inside corner. Importantly, he reduced his strikeout rate from 30.5% in 233 plate appearances last year to just 20.5% this season. I would preach a little caution though, as his .356 BABIP does a lot of work maintaining his .317/.375/.554 slash line.
Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-3, 3B, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB.
Carroll left Sunday’s game with a left side injury, so it’s great to see him back in the lineup and hitting well so soon after an MRI revealed no significant damage. Carroll’s power crisis has been well documented, so I won’t go into it here. He’s still a fantastic asset with his speed, and it looks like his striking (except for his power) is making a comeback. He entered yesterday with a .273/.375/.382 slash in June. Carroll is an incredibly interesting dynasty to buy cheap right now if his current manager gets nervous.
Josh Smith (TEXAS): 2-4, RH, R, 3 RBIs.
Smith having a prominent role in the middle of the Rangers’ lineup wasn’t on my 2024 bingo card, but neither was his .298/.386/.451 slash line after posting a 65 and 78 wRC+ over the course of his first two seasons. Despite the strong slash line, Smith’s playing time quickly dried up as soon as Josh Jung is activated from the IL. He started a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Sunday, so that shouldn’t be long. Jung is available on 18% of Yahoo! leagues and 64% of ESPN leagues, so I would check if he’s just sitting on your waiver wire. He could really make the difference in the home stretch.
Tyler O’Neill (BOS): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2R, RBI.
O’Neill does everything he can to join Randy Arozarena And Adolis Garcia in the hallowed halls of the Outfielders, the Cardinals should not have traded Away™. O’Neill’s 15th homer of the season tied things up in the eighth inning last night before the Red Sox took the lead in the ninth for a 4-3 victory in Toronto. O’Neill’s 146 wRC+ is a career high and 30 points better than any outfielder who still calls St. Louis home. His perimeter stats look nearly identical to his 34-homer campaign in 2021. He has a 33% K% barrel rate, 25.9% HR/FB, and 18% barrel rate this year, up from a 31% barrel rate. 3% K%, 26.2% HR/FB and 17.9% in 2021.
Dansby Swanson (CHC): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.
Watching the Cubs’ horrible play over the past six weeks is actually the punishment reserved for those unfortunate enough to find themselves in the 10th circle of Dante’s previously unknown hell. Seriously, Swanson eased the pain a bit yesterday for the Wrigley faithful, posting a combined meal in the team’s 5-2 win over the visiting Giants. Swanson has had a season to forget so far, but with barrel and hard hit rates in the 60th percentile and above and a career-low BABIP, things should change soon for the two-time All-Star.
Nicolas Castellanos (PHI): 4-5, 2 2B, R, RBI.
Castellanos had the big hit last night, shutting out the Padres with a double down the right field line. Incredibly, it was already his third hit of the season. It was also Robert Suarez’s first blown save of the season, showing just how stable the back end of San Diego’s bullpen has been. The metrics for Castellanos’ game-winning shot are hilarious: an exit velocity of 77.9 mph with an xBA of .050.
JJ Bléday (OAK): 3-4, 3 2B, R, 2 RBIs.
Bleday had the first triple-double of his career last night, and they were all hit in one way or another between 102.2 mph and 102.6 mph. Talk about consistency. Bleday’s third go-around in MLB pitching went much better than his first two. He has significantly reduced his strikeout rate. It is down more than five points to 18.8%. He did a much better job controlling his bat and hitting the ball where it counts, increasing his sweet spot percentage from 29.9% to 37.8%. He was one of the A’s highlights, hitting .261/.342/.478 with 10 homers.