Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to stay informed about our latest updates in preview tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.
Week 25 | June 21 – 23, 2024
Range Top 10 | Weekend 25 2024: $108 million – $138 million
Top 10 overall | Weekend 25, 2023: $109,146,756
Podium Box-office Pro
Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | June 21 – 23, 2024
1. Upside down 2
Disney/Pixar | Week 2
Weekend Range: $75-$85M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 35%
Benefits
- Pixar Inside Out 2 broke the 2024 box office ceiling last weekend with a $155 million domestic gross and nearly $300 million worldwide, appeasing the prophets of doom while breathing new life into the summer movie season. Theaters were still feeling the effects of the film on Monday, as the film’s box office grossed $22.4 million, only a few million shy of the previous summer release’s $26.3 million. Furiosa: A Mad Max saga debuted during its three-day debut over Memorial Day weekend. This Monday figure for Inside Out 2 is the second best film ever made by Pixar, behind only Incredibles 2 ($23.6 million). If Inside Out 2 continues to remain approximately at the same level as Incredibles 2, we’re looking at a second-weekend take of $80.3 million (a -56% decline), at the high end of our expected range. However, during its second weekend Incredibles 2 went hand in hand with the debut of the Universal giant Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (opening $148M). There is no significant new competition for Inside Out 2 this weekend, meaning nine figures – or close to it – isn’t out of the question if the animated film continues to outperform.
- International reserves should also be quite robust given opening weekend numbers, such as the $14.3 million. Inside Out 2 made in the UK/Ireland, accounting for 71% of that market’s entire box office, the biggest opening there since barbie. With the momentum it’s enjoying, Pixar’s sequel should easily cross the half-billion mark worldwide before the end of the weekend. Between June 19 and 21, we will see openings in other major markets, including France, Italy and Spain (June 19); Brazil (June 20); and the Chinese brass ring (June 21). Japan, second largest territory for the first Upside down with $32.8 million (the UK was #1 with $59.4 million), won’t get the film until August 1st.
The inconvenients
- The downside is hidden in the upside: no major new titles launching this weekend. Great news for Disney, not so much for theaters or, for that matter, moviegoers who already saw Inside Out 2 last weekend and are looking for the next big thing. Neither The Bikeriders, Kinds of Kindness, nor The Exorcism are likely to attract a significant audience despite big-name pedigrees. This remaining audience is more likely to carry over to loyal titles like Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, entering its seventh weekend. The 20th Century Studios/Disney release landed in third place at the box office last weekend with $5.5 million, up +2% from the previous weekend despite losing 555 screens …again, more good news for Disney.
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony Photos | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12-$18M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 13%
Benefits
- Bad Boys: Ride or Die should continue to hold strong, especially since Will Smith is still around doing promotional stunts, like showing up at a random Cinemark screening to benefit TikTok users (via Deadline). Sony is already feeling its star’s goodwill, having signed up for its next big sci-fi tentpole, Resistance, with the studio headed by Tom Rothman. THE Bad Boys fourquel only fell 40% last weekend with no location change and took in another $3,352,350 million on Monday, for a current domestic tally of $116,358,327 million.
The inconvenients
How will be Bad Boys: Ride or Die keeping pace with the rest of the franchise? This is what the respective third frames from the previous three films looked like…
- Bad Boys (1995) – $7,012,808 million (-36% drop in 3rd frame)
- Bad Boys II (2003) – $12,734,526 million (-42% drop in 3rd frame)
- Bad boys for life (2020) – $17,682,959 million (-48% drop in 3rd frame)
Contrary to Inside Out 2the Bad Boys have rival bad boys to face in Bikerswhich targets the same male-centric demo.
3. MOTORCYCLISTS
Focus Features | NEW
Weekend range: $7 to $12 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 8%
Benefits
- Specialty exhibitors have already distinguished a police drama about motorcycle gangs from the 1960s Bikers as one of the most promising potential mainstream crossover titles of the year during our annual State of the Art-House panel. The Rotten Tomatoes review currently stands at a solid 85%, with plenty of praise for the cast, including the terrific Tom Hardy, Free guyit’s Jodie Comer, and Dune: part two “that boy” Austin Butler. A mid-summer release for an arthouse title is rare these days, with specialty studios mostly stockpiling their hottest titles in January or February, to coincide with awards season. But a well-reviewed, star-studded drama brimming with action, speed and violence might be just the kind of adult-oriented film for a summer slot lacking significant competition.
The inconvenients
- While trailers cut to the tunes of the Rolling Stones favor a Scorese-lite tone for this biker gang epic, director Jeff Nichols is known for more artistic fare like Mud Or Magnet. It doesn’t help that the film seems a bit stale after its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival last August, with 20th Century Studios delaying the planned December release… then ultimately handing it over to Universal’s boutique division, Focus Features. 2024 was not a banner year for Focus, with none of their major releases (Lisa Frankenstein, Drive-Away Dolls, The American Society of Magical Negroes, Back to Black) reaching $10 million domestically despite wide deployments. As a summer contender, Focus’ latest will struggle to carve out a place on screens in the weeks to come. It may take huge word of mouth to keep a period drama as simple as Bikers afloat, even on the specialized market. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 will probably be flouted Bikers in the second image of the latter film.
- While the initial biker movie craze died down soon after EasyRidermodern examples like Couple Or Cymbeline didn’t really set the world on fire. A better composition for Bikers it would be the one from 2012 Without faith or law, which also paired Tom Hardy in a period crime film with a young male co-star (Shia LaBeouf) and a promising female protagonist (Jessica Chastain). This film ultimately grossed $37.3 million domestically and $54.3 million worldwide, a mediocre performance.