Orioles-Astros Series Preview: Finally a Non-East Opponent

Buoyed by their series win over the Yankees, which capped off three successful weeks of baseball against AL and NL East teams, the Orioles stay on the road and head to the Houston Astros this weekend. This is an Astros team that is underperforming so far in the season, with a record of just 35-40 in the series. They are eight games out of their division and six out of the third wild card.

The Orioles can’t afford to let go of the gas just because they’re facing a weaker opponent. Not that you need to tell them that. They’ve had disappointing series against teams that aren’t very good this year, losing series against the Pirates and Athletics, as well as that unpleasant sweep in St. Louis. The Yankees will have a tougher task this weekend, as they face the Braves, whose fortunes have improved since their series with the O’s.

What’s new for the Astros this year? To some extent, they were unlucky. They have a point differential of +7, giving them an expected record three wins better than their actual record. One of the reasons they don’t reach that record is because they are an almost unbelievable 5-14 in one-point games. You have to try really hard to be that bad! Or you have to sign a $95 million closer (Maryland-born former Orioles prospect Josh Hader) and watch him lose four games so far. The Orioles are 7-10 in one-run games.

Among Houston’s other issues is the fact that they, like the Orioles, have a number of injured starting pitchers. That includes future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, as well as Cristian Javier, a standout in 2022. Efforts to replace those guys haven’t worked as well as the O’s, so far. Part of that means there will be a guy making his MLB debut for the Astros tonight. More information on him shortly.

Although the Astros have the fourth-best team OPS in the AL at .734 (the Orioles are #1 at .768), they are only middle of the pack when it comes to their run production with an average of 4.36 points scored per game. Their best offensive player to date, Kyle Tucker, fouled a shin ball earlier this month and, as of a few days ago, had still not returned to baseball activities.

Without him, there’s only one guy to really fear in Houston’s lineup: Yordan Alvarez, who is having a disappointing season (for him) with “just” an .889 OPS. There is absolutely no need to fear José Abreu, recently released in the second year of a three-year contract because Father Time is undefeated. Abreu only had an OPS of .361 at the time of his release. His first base replacement, Jon Singleton, sits at a .646 OPS.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Astros are 19-19 at home and 10-7 so far in June.

Game 1 – Friday, 8:10 a.m. ET

• BAL Starter: Grayson Rodriguez – 12 GS, 3.20 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.223 WHIP
• HOU Starter: Jake Bloss (MLB debut)

A year ago, Bloss had just finished his junior year for Georgetown. This time, three months ago, he had never made it past Low-A. The Astros debuted Bloss at High-A and only had him four starts before sending him to Double-A. He went straight to the MLB, two days shy of his 23rd birthday.

Bloss was having excellent results for the Astros AA team, hitting a 1.61 ERA and 0.716 WHIP over eight starts. How well have the Orioles monitored the Texas League? We’re going to find out this evening. As an Orioles fan, I am permanently scarred by the fact that Clay Buchholz, then a Red Sock, did not hit the team in one of his first career starts.

For Rodriguez, this will be his first time back in his home state of Texas since he made his MLB debut against the Rangers. He’s having a great start streak in June, allowing just five earned runs in 19.1 innings in his previous three starts. That’s an ERA of 2.33 and comes with an OPS of 0.596. With Kyle Bradish out, Rodriguez continuing to perform well in the rotation is all the more important.

Orioles fans can hope that all three right-handed starters in this series will be able to take advantage of an Astros lineup filled with plenty of right-handers. Their best lefty is Tucker, who is out. Houston’s right-handed hitters average just .679 against right-handed pitchers.

Game 2 – Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET

• BAL Starter: Corbin Burnes – 15 GS, 2.14 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.036 WHIP
• HOU Starter: Ronel Blanco – 13 GS, 2.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 0.966 WHIP

Blanco threw a no-hitter in his first start of the season. From there, there is nowhere to go but down, and ERA has nowhere to go but up. Yet even if you remove the 30-year-old no-hitter from the season’s stats, he has a 2.75 ERA and a .182 batting average allowed in the 12 games since. These are no slouch numbers, although it’s possible that Blanco is enjoying comical BABIP luck (.186) and is due for some regression in that fortune.

Burnes inherited a share of the AL ERA lead after the Orioles demolished former leader Luis Gil yesterday. He’s done just about everything you could have hoped for when the O’s acquired him over the offseason, averaging over six innings per game started, allowing only about one batter per inning to ‘reaching base (1,036 WHIP) and striking out approximately one batter per inning. . In June, he’s holding hitters to a .553 OPS, which is probably why his June ERA is 1.35.

Game 3 – Sunday, 2:10 p.m. ET

• BAL Starter: Albert Suárez – 15 G/8 GS, 2.05 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1,200 WHIP
• HOU Starters: Framber Valdez – 12 GS, 3.91 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.208 WHIP

Valdez is somewhat of a unique pitcher in the current era of baseball in that he has logged a complete game in each of the last four seasons. The 30-year-old left-hander has been a workhorse for the Astros over the past two years, pitching 201.1 and then 198 innings – with excellent results, a combined ERA of 3.13 (128 ERA+).

Things aren’t going bad for Valdez so far in 2024, although they’ve slipped enough that he’s only an average pitcher in terms of adjusted ERA rather than good to great. What likely contributes to Valdez’s ERA being 3.91 is that his strikeout rate is very low. A year ago, Valdez had a 9.1 K/9 and currently he is 6.8 for this season.

Suárez needs to return to the strike zone productively after his last start against the Yankees, when he handed out five free passes and hit one batter during a 3.2 inning outing. At first before that, he had walked three Atlanta batters in 5.1 scoreless innings. The zeroes in the runs column were good, but the walks were concerning if they continued, and they did.

The good news for Suárez in this department is that the Astros are not a team that walks a lot. Only two teams in the AL have fewer walks than Houston. Then again, one of those teams is the Orioles, so obviously a team can be successful this year without walking too far. The injured Tucker leads the team in walks with a lead of at least 18 even after missing nearly three weeks of action. Walking a small number of walks, these Astros also don’t strike out much. There could be a lot of balls in play in this series in general.

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With a strong series here, the Orioles could find themselves at the top of the AL East by the end of the weekend, depending on how things go for the Yankees. It certainly feels like the Yankees are on the ropes after the last two games against the O’s, but that doesn’t mean they are, or that they will continue to slip. When the O’s beat the Yankees three out of four games in May, the O’s swept the Reds and they didn’t win a game in New York because the Yankees simultaneously swept the Tigers.

What do you think will happen in this series? In the poll leading up to the Yankees series, 51% of voters correctly chose that the Orioles would win two out of three. If you say you’re one of them, I’ll never know otherwise.