Trae Young was the toast of Atlanta just three years ago. In his third season, he took the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals, and if not for an untimely injury, he could have taken them to the top of the mountain. At this point, it seemed like the Hawks had found a franchise player for the next decade. But Atlanta didn’t win a playoff series.
The 2021 team regressed the following season. The front office tried to shake things up with a mega trade for Dejounte Murray, but it didn’t help. The front office and coaching staff have changed, but it doesn’t matter. Three years later, the 2021 course looks like an anomaly. The Hawks spent those seasons hovering around .500 and accomplishing little.
Now, Young’s status as a franchise player is in doubt. He’s become one of the most common players in the rumor mill, and now that the Hawks have the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft, pretty much everything is on the table. So why might the Hawks move Young? What could they bring him? And where is all this going?
Why he’s in trade rumors
The Hawks have gone six games under .500 over the last three regular seasons. The lineups of Young and Murray were dominated by 169 points in nearly 1,200 minutes last season. It was the worst two-way combination on the Hawks and the 49th worst in the entire NBA last season. The Hawks are 17-18 in games Murray has played without Young over the past two seasons, but just 60-69 with both over that span. This solution, without a shadow of a doubt, does not work.
The Hawks could trade Murray instead of Young, but they tried to do that at the trade deadline and couldn’t find a decent offer. Maybe things changed in the offseason. At the very least, contenders will have more picks to work with once the calendar flips to the 2024-25 league year. But coach Quin Snyder has reportedly made it known that he wants the Hawks to keep Murray in February.
Building a functional NBA defense around Young seems nearly impossible at this point, at least with the resources the Hawks have at their disposal. Atlanta has never ranked higher than 18th in his career. He’s small, his effort is inconsistent, and he has almost no schematic versatility. With the arrival of the No. 1 pick in the draft, the Hawks have a real opportunity to hit the reset button and get a fresh start without such limitations.
Why the Hawks would keep him
Young may weaken Atlanta’s defense, but he carries the offense. The Hawks consistently outperformed their talent offensively due to the shots Young created. His size also comes with offensive limitations, but even amid all the turmoil of last season, Dunks & Threes ranked Young as the 18th best offensive player in the NBA according to their EPM metric. He is ranked fourth on their board over a full season. For all his weaknesses, Young is one of the best pick-and-roll operators in basketball.
This is the main difference between Young and Murray. One is a very good player, better suited for a supporting role. The other is a flawed face of the franchise. It’s easier to find players in Murray’s class than players like Young, even though Murray has the more well-rounded skill set. Without Young, the Hawks would need a new cornerstone.
It’s also worth pointing out here that Young will only be 26 years old on opening night. Any notion that this is a finished product is probably short-sighted. Its physical dimensions will always create defects. GOOD. But, even in the limited and promising world he occupies, he is probably coming off his best defensive season. He may never have taken on the off-ball duties the Hawks had hoped for, but that’s a fixable mindset, not a physical limitation. Giving up such a young and talented player carries an inherent risk that the Hawks may not want to take.
Which destinations make sense?
Young is a difficult player to trade because Murray’s situation has proven that he really can’t function alongside another heavily used guard. Its value only reaches its maximum when its attack passes through it entirely. There are teams that simply can’t offer him that degree of control and, therefore, don’t make any sense. Here are three teams that could do it.
Los Angeles Lakers: Yes, yes, we just said Young needs to run the offense. How could he work alongside a control freak like LeBron James? Well, he probably wouldn’t, that’s an idea I’ve explained in more depth. here. But James is about to turn 40 and the Lakers need a new centerpiece after he retires or leaves. Young and Anthony Davis make a lot of sense together. They would make a great pick-and-roll duo, and Davis could cover for Young’s defensive weaknesses. This would be a move geared more toward life after James, even if they overlap in Los Angeles.
The Magic of Orlando: The Magic have two forwards running their offense, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but their guards are relatively lightly used. Now, if Wagner continues to shoot 3s as poorly as he did last season, taking him off the ball in a Young-centric offense would go poorly. But what if the Magic could find shooting elsewhere without sacrificing the defense that made them special last year? Young would go very far offensively. However, this team’s entire identity lies in its size and its defense. Young would be a huge turnoff.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs would be Atlanta’s preferred trade partner because San Antonio controls Atlanta’s next three first-round picks after 2024. If the Hawks pick them up, they can tank and rebuild properly. If there’s one player who can protect Young defensively, it’s Victor Wembanyama, and we saw last year how much the Spurs need a point guard to create shots for him. Their skill sets align perfectly if the Spurs are ready to take a major step forward.
What is the latest report?
Virtually all reports indicate the Hawks will attempt to move at least one of their guards. Jake Fischer of Yahoo reported in May that there was a growing belief around the league that Young would be the one on the block. The Lakers are the only team that has definitely been related to Young, albeit earlier in the offseason. Reports suggest Spurs may not be interested, although it could be down to price. One of those Hawks guards is being traded. The only question now is whether it will be Young or Murray.