Robert Whittaker went from a menacing middleweight looking to take his place to another.
Nothing ever comes easy for “The Reaper,” who faces Ikram Aliskerov in the main event of UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday. Whittaker was originally scheduled to fight Khamzat Chimaev in a fight with clear title implications, but with Chimaev forced to withdraw due to illness, Whittaker now faces a lesser-known opponent with little guarantee that a victory will propel him at the top of the ladder of contenders.
What makes the situation even trickier for Whittaker is that Aliskerov could be just as dangerous as the undefeated Chimaev. The Russian is 15-1, including first-round finishes in his first two UFC fights and his only loss came against Chimaev in 2019. If Aliskerov makes short work of Whittaker, don’t Don’t be surprised if he gets a championship opportunity soon. .
In other main card action, heavyweight contenders Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov square off in the co-main event, Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez meet in a screwball middleweight clash, popular middleweight Shara Magomedov fights short-notice debutant Antonio Trocoli, and Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir collide in a battle of light heavyweight veterans.
What: UFC Saudi Arabia
Or: Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
When: Saturday June 22. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET also on ABC and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate you are standing MMA Fighting World Rankings And Pound for Pound RankingIngs)
Robert Whittaker (4) vs. Ikram Aliskerov
How do we all feel about Robert Whittaker these days?
I think Whittaker has made a strong statement that he is too skilled and too tough for 90 percent of the middleweight division to handle, as evidenced by the way he has outclassed Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, despite its mileage in the cage. adding. The loss to Dricus du Plessis was telling, but was it really indicative of Whittaker’s limitations or was it just a bad style match for him?
Ikram Aliskerov is just a slight underdog according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which tells you how highly oddsmakers think of Aliskerov despite having one-tenth of Whittaker’s UFC experience and taking on this fight on short notice . Heading into the biggest fight of his career, I suspect Aliskerov would have liked to have had more time to prepare specifically for Whittaker.
Still, I can’t help but think that fate is against Whittaker here. First, missing the opportunity to beat undefeated Chimaev – a feat that would have all but guaranteed him a chance to regain the middleweight belt – and then being forced to face an opponent who has far more to gain from his matchup than he does. do. Aliskerov is also not as one-dimensional as Costa or Vettori. Not only is he a great wrestler, as you would expect given his Dagestan origins, but he possesses a powerful blend of patience and power on his feet.
Aliskerov only needs an opening burst to land a powerful shot and even the sturdy Whittaker can only take so many. I see Aliskerov giving up a slow start before putting on the pressure and finding a finish in round 2 or 3.
Take: Aliskerov
Sergei Pavlovich (3) against Alexander Volkov (7)
I expect Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov to follow a similar pace to my Whittaker-Aliskerov prediction, but with a much quicker finish.
You know what Pavlovich is here to do. He’ll come forward with his hands outstretched, walk you down, and once he’s in range, he’ll head for the fences. More often than not, he is the hammer, not the nail, and before the loss to Tom Aspinall he had racked up six straight first-round finishes. In fact, Pavlovich hasn’t had a runoff in seven years.
Volkov is no stranger to defusing heavy hitters, ranging from Tai Tuivasa to Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Alistair Overeem. He uses his reach so well that even if he gives up a few inches to Pavlovich, he should still have the advantage when they work at mid-range. It’s just that he probably won’t be able to keep Pavlovich at this distance for long.
It’s Pavlovich’s underrated speed that will really give Volkov problems. After hitting a few good long-range shots at the start, he will find himself with his back to the fence and Pavlovich lunging at him. Then it’s bam, bam, and you know the rest.
Pavlovich by first-round knockout.
Take: Pavlovich
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Pull yourself together, Kelvin Gastelum.
These days, any analysis of a Gastelum fight requires mention of his struggle to cut weight. Even the veteran’s supporters must be frustrated with his inability to handle the scale at this point and are wondering how these issues affect him on fight night. Respectfully, there may be a number of factors that have interfered with Gastelum’s preparation and we certainly wish him the best, but if you need ideal circumstances to cut down to a required weight, this weight class is probably not not for you.
With that grievance settled, I’m going against my better judgment and picking Gastelum to earn a close victory over Daniel Rodriguez. Style-wise, they’re a good match, but Gastelum’s ability to push the pace for 15 minutes is his best asset. It’s entirely possible that Rodriguez hits and upsets Gastelum into oblivion as well, there’s not much that separates the fighters here.
Gastelum’s activity earns him the green light as we take a trip to Splitty City.
Take: Gastélum
Shara Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli
First, let’s share the relief Antonio Trocoli must feel now that he is so close to making his UFC dream a reality. Trocoli has endured numerous starts and stops during his journey since a Contender Series victory was overturned due to testing positive for the banned substance nandrolone. This is the third or fourth time he’s been booked to debut, I’ve actually lost count at this point. He even missed the opportunity to be crushed by Aliskerov last Saturday!
But here he is now and once again finds himself in a match where he is a heavy underdog, this time against highly touted striker Shara Magomedov. The hype surrounding “Shara Bullet” is substantial, stemming from her dynamic striking style, quirky personality, and signature right eye (the result of a years-old injury). Magomedov faced a tough test in his UFC debut, winning a decision over a pesky Bruno Silva, so we’ll see if Trocoli proves to be a more entertaining style matchup.
Trocoli struggles to wrestle, but at a whopping 6-foot-5, his main strategy is to use his 82-inch reach to confuse opponents on the feet. As you might expect, this size has some drawbacks, particularly when it comes to speed. The elastic Magomedov won’t take long to figure out Trocoli’s rate of fire and when he realizes Trocoli can’t match him shot for shot, he’ll look to finish.
This big tree is about to fall.
Take: Magomedov
Johnny Walker (8) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (15)
The main card opener pits two of the light heavyweight division’s most unpredictable fighters against each other. Johnny Walker looked like he was turning a corner after a difficult start with SBG Ireland, only to fall to the superior Magomed Ankalaev; Volkan Oezdemir continues to win just enough to keep newcomers from taking his place, but he’s otherwise lost a step as he approaches 30 professional fights.
The good news is that none of that matters since these two should hit each other really hard, maybe so hard that one of them won’t get back up. Walker is no stranger to thrilling knockout strikes and Oezdemir showed signs of being a lightning-fast finisher in his UFC debut.
Should Oezdemir jump into the fight to target one of Walker’s supposed weaknesses? It could work, but at the same time, Oezdemir may want to trust himself to find Walker’s chin, as many others have done in the past. If the goofball Walker shows up, a few hard shots from Oezdemir could straighten him out quickly.
On the other hand, Walker’s sometimes unorthodox offensive approach could have Oezdemir’s team looking for solutions. Yes, Walker has become a more conventional fighter, but he still shows flashes of the wild man that endeared him to fans in the first place.
Give me Oezdemir by decision.
Take: Œzdemir
Foreplay
Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon
Muhammad Naimov def. Felipe Lima
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby
Muin Gafurov def. Kyung Ho Kang
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov def. Brendan Ribeiro
Chang Ho Lee def. Xiao Long