For the second time this year, Heston Kjerstad has been called up to join the Orioles’ big league roster. While the O’s have suffered an injury crisis on the pitching side, little has changed with their position players. This makes Kjerstad’s call rather difficult to analyze. Is he coming to play? Or get on the bench? Either way, this feels like an inflection point for his future with the Orioles, who have holes to fill and a month before the trade deadline arrives.
Drafted second overall in 2020, Kjerstad has had a unique career. A bout with myocarditis pushed his professional debut back until 2022. But since then, he’s taken off, playing in four O’s affiliates in less than two years and making it all the way to Baltimore in late 2023. By spring, he seemed a favorite to make the team’s Opening Day roster, but an early slump led to a meager .580 OPS in Grapefruit League play and earned him a ticket back to Norfolk at the place.
Kjerstad’s production in Triple-A this season has been excellent. In 55 games, he owns a .300/.390/.601 line with 16 homers, 14 doubles, a 12.5% walk rate and a 26.3% strikeout rate. June was his worst month – .811 OPS, three homers, 26 strikeouts, eight walks – but nothing to deter a promotion like this.
The problem for Kjerstad doesn’t seem to be his work with the bat, but rather the crowded outfield in Baltimore. Kjerstad was on the big league roster for three weeks in late April/early May, but only played in seven games (starting four times) before being sent down. O’s manager Brandon Hyde explained at the time that due to the team’s outfield configuration, Kjerstad had difficulty participating in games. The organization wanted to ensure more consistent playing time, hence the demotion.
This is almost identical to how the team has handled fellow forward Kyle Stowers this season. Stowers, 26, was the one who took Kjerstad’s spot on the major league roster in mid-May, and he was also the factor in Kjerstad’s return to Baltimore here. Stowers also failed to find playing time, usually relegated to late-game substitute roles. The difference between Kjerstad and Stowers is that one was a top draft pick with a history of landing on “Top 100” prospect lists, and the other is universally considered a more fringe talent. The Orioles’ decision to handle them the same way is remarkable.
So, will anything be different this time? Well, let’s look at the list.
Veteran outfielders have cemented their place with recent performance improvements. Cedric Mullins continues to offer sublime defense and saw his production at the plate turn around in June (.271/.318/.758). Anthony Santander was MLB’s leading power hitter in June (11 home runs) and has a 1.015 OPS this month. Austin Hays is even crushing baseballs to the tune of a 1.161 OPS in June.
Colton Cowser took the opposite route. His 1.004 OPS in April gave way to a .580 OPS in May and a .587 OPS so far in June. But he offers athleticism and defense that Kjerstad can’t match. Cowser is capable of playing center field and has one of the strongest throwing arms in MLB. The advantage on defense doesn’t make Cowser blameless, but it does mean Kjerstad would have to be head and shoulders above him at the plate to cut into his playing time. Maybe he is, but the Orioles haven’t given him a chance to prove it yet.
Kjerstad will likely play first base or DH during his career, but he won’t find many opportunities to do so with the Orioles in the short term. Ryan Mountcastle has a chance to be the AL’s starting first baseman in next month’s All-Star Game and has been remarkably consistent this season. Ryan O’Hearn managed to replicate his out-of-nowhere performance from a season ago to post an OPS of .808 and could be swinging better than ever this month. And don’t forget Santander’s regular stints in DH, especially against left-handed pitchers. There just isn’t much room for another bat in the mix.
The whole situation could change during the offseason. Santander is set to hit free agency this winter, and it’s possible he’s beyond what the Orioles feel comfortable spending on a player who looks more and more like a DH-only as the seasons go on future. Kjerstad could slide right into his playing time in right field. And that’s not even taking into consideration a potential trade of Hays — or anyone else for that matter — to free up extra innings. With that in mind, it’s important to keep Kjerstad motivated and involved at the big league level.
But while it’s important not to be short-sighted, the Orioles would be wrong not to do their best in 2024. This entire roster is far too good to simply fit into an overall roster theory. team rather than doing whatever you want. can win the franchise’s first World Series in over 40 years. Leaving a talent like Kjerstad on the bench for occasional playing time while your pitching staff walks on water would seem like malpractice, no matter how good he will be one day.
Of course, Kjerstad isn’t the only player in the organization who could be the center of a big package to land an impact pitcher (or two) at the deadline. Guys like Connor Norby, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and others could also be in the mix. But Kjerstad seems to offer the right mix of high upside and lack of opportunity that could make him replaceable for the O’s, the same way Joey Ortiz was the odd man out of the infield with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and ( possibly) Jackson Holliday. the preferred options there.
This is all speculation, of course, which will make it interesting to monitor how the Orioles use Kjerstad over the next five weeks leading up to the trade deadline. If he gets into Hyde’s lineups more often and starts producing, it’s hard to see the team moving away from him. But if he continues to be just a bit of a player — and the pitching staff continues to limp — the more and more it looks like a move is going to happen.
As always, Mike Elias and his front office will be looking for value. Kjerstad could be traded, but it won’t be for a below-average rental. It would have to be in exchange for immense talent that will help the Orioles in future seasons. That would be exciting! And if Elias doesn’t see value in a potential Kjerstad trade, then he’ll likely play a lot in Baltimore next year. That would be exciting too!
Kjerstad won’t single-handedly dictate the final outcome of the 2024 Orioles, but he will be a key figure over the next month who could shed some light on the front office’s thinking, both short and long term.