Lingering consumer concerns about the future continue to weigh on confidence
NEW YORK, June 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in June to 100.4 (1985=100), compared to 101.3 in May. THE Current situation index— based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose to 141.5 (1985=100), up from 140.8 last month.
However, the Expectations Index— based on consumers’ near-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — fell to 73.0 (1985=100) in June, from 74.9 in May. The expectations index has remained below 80 (the threshold that typically signals a coming recession) for five straight months.
“Confidence fell in June, but remained in the same narrow range it has remained in for the past two years, as the strength of current labor market views continues to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if significant weaknesses in the labor market emerge, confidence could weaken. as the year progresses,” said Dana M. Petersonchief economist at the Conference Board.
“Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: their view of the current situation improved slightly overall, thanks to a slight improvement in their sentiment towards the current job market, but their assessment current business conditions cooled At the same time, for the second consecutive month, consumers expressed mixed feelings Consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. the business situation weakened, which weighed on the overall expectations index. The drop in confidence between May and June was concentrated among consumers aged 35 to 54, those under 35 and those. 55 and over saw their confidence improve this month No clear trend emerged in terms of income groups Based on a six-month rolling average, confidence remained highest among. the youngest (under 35) and the richest (do). on $100,000) consumers.”
Peterson added: “Compared to May, consumers were less concerned about an upcoming recession. However, consumers’ evaluation of their Family financial situation—both currently and over the next six months—was less positive. » (These measurements are not included in the calculation of Consumer Confidence Index®)
12-month average inflation expectations decreased slightly, from 5.4 percent to 5.3 percent. Written responses from June found that high prices, particularly for food and groceries, continued to impact consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the job market and political situation in the United States. It is worth noting that the proportion of respondents believing that the 2024 elections would have an impact on the economy was low compared to written responses from June 2016 and slightly higher than in 2020.
Consumers were positive about the sotck exchange, with 48.4 percent expecting stock prices to rise over the coming year, compared to 23.5 percent expecting a decline and 28.1 percent expecting only no change. At the same time, the share of consumers who expect an increase interest rate over the next twelve months it fell to 52.6 percent, its lowest level since February.
As a six-month moving average, purchasing plans For houses remained virtually unchanged and remained historically low in June. Purchase plans for cars also at a standstill. Meanwhile, purchasing plans mostly expensive household appliances And smart phones increased slightly, even though fewer consumers are considering purchasing a a laptop or PC.
The share of consumers plan a vacation† over the next six months continued to increase and remains above the level of last June. More consumers plan to vacation in the United States than abroad. As in recent years, more people are considering traveling by car rather than by plane. Overall, the share of consumers planning to go on vacation is still about 10 percentage points lower than it was before the pandemic.
Current situation
Current consumer rating business conditions was, overall, slightly less positive in June.
- 19.6% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 20.8% in May.
- But 17.7% said business conditions were “poor”, also down from 18.4% last month.
Consumer appreciation of laboratory market improved in June.
- 38.1% of consumers said jobs were “plenty,” up from 37.0% in May.
- 14.1% of consumers said a job was “hard to find,” up from 14.3%.
Expectations in six months
Consumers were less optimistic about outlook for short-term business conditions in June.
- 12.5% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, up from 13.7% in May.
- 16.7% expected business conditions to deteriorate, compared to 16.9%.
Consumer rating on short-term labor market outlook was a little less negative in June.
- 12.6% of consumers expected more jobs to become available, up from 13.1% in May.
- 17.3% expect fewer jobs, compared to 18.8% last month.
Consumer assessment of their short term income outlook deteriorated in June.
- 15.2% of consumers expect their income to increase, compared to 17.7% in May.
- 11.7% expected a drop in income, compared to 11.5%.
Evaluation of Family finances and the risk of recession
- Consumer assessment of their Current financial situation of the family weakened in June.
- Consumer assessment of their Family financial situation in the future remained practically unchanged.
- Consumers Perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months fell in June, after increasing in May and April.
The monthly Consumer Confidence® Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for the Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology , its expertise and its panel of more than 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results was June 19.
† NOTE: As part of our regular efforts to improve the quality of our data, the procedure for seasonal adjustment of fortnightly responses on vacation intentions has been improved. The data is now seasonally adjusted using an X-12 procedure, consistent with seasonal adjustments applied to other consumer confidence survey data.
Source: June 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Council
Conference Board releases consumer confidence index® has 10 a.m. ET the last Tuesday of each month. Subscription information and technical notes for this series are available on the Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is a member-driven think tank that provides trusted information on What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, nonprofit entity with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.
SOURCE The Conference Board
