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Week 26 | June 28 – 30, 2024
Range Top 10 | Weekend 26 2024: $135 million – $175 million
Top 10 overall | Weekend 26, 2023: $128,171,711
The box office podium
Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | June 21 – 23, 2024
1. Upside down 2
Disney/Pixar | Week 3
Weekend Range: $50-$55M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 24%
Benefits
- Disney/Pixar Inside Out 2 enters its third stint as the highest-grossing film of 2024 with over $800 million in worldwide ticket sales. Domestically, the film is coming off its second consecutive stint of over $100 million, becoming one of only seven titles to surpass $100 million in its second weekend. It took less than two weeks for the sequel to surpass Upside downof the domestic total ($356.5 million) and is on pace to surpass the $400 million domestic benchmark before Friday. It could end up being a tight race for the top spot, but its current footprint in showings narrowly edges Paramount’s. A quiet place, first day.
- Inside Out 2 has the potential to gross $1.5 billion worldwide through its theatrical release. This would place the film in line with the memorable performance that Paramount’s film Top Gun: Maverick ($1.49 billion) made in the summer of 2022.
The inconvenients
- Me, despicable 4 shows all the signs of cannibalization of the Inside Out 2 The film will be released to families on Wednesday, July 3 in the United States (it took in $9.3 million in just four international territories last weekend). This is the Pixar film’s last chance to strut its stuff at the top of the box office, and a second-place finish could kill any hopes of success as it goes up against Minions in the coming weeks.
2.. A quiet place: first day
Paramount | New
Opening Weekend Range: $50-$55M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 23%
Benefits
The first one A silent place was a sleeper hit when it launched in April 2018, with Paramount and Michael Bay’s horror shingle Platinum Dunes combining big stars (John Krasinski, Emily Blunt) with high-profile terror for a massive victory. The second entry, in which Cillian Murphy primarily took on the male lead role (director/star Krasinski returned to helm and appeared via flashbacks), was set to launch in March 2020 before the pandemic derailed those plans. A premiere even took place on March 8 of the same year in New York, just before the implementation of containment measures. A year later, Paramount decided to forgo a streaming release for an exclusive 45-day theatrical window, which paid off as A Quiet Place, Part II was released in theaters just as the Covid-19 vaccine was becoming widely available in the United States. The performance between the two titles was similar, here is the box office snapshot for the pair…
- A silent place (2018) – $50M opening / $188M domestic / $340M WW
- A Quiet Place, Part II (2021) – Opening $47.5 million / $160 million domestic / $297 million WW
As Krasinski decides to run Paramount’s IF instead of a third chapter, the studio decided to offer us the prequel this weekend A quiet place: first daywhich not only gives us new protagonists in Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o and Stranger Things Joseph Quinn, but a completely new location (New York instead of America’s heartland) for sound-sensitive alien invaders to wreak havoc. While Krasinski co-wrote the story, he handed the helm to Michael Sarnoski, who directed the critically acclaimed Nicolas Cage vehicle. Pig. That’s a tremendous pedigree to carry the torch for this franchise. If it succeeds, it can branch out into many perspectives and locations, like the equally apocalyptic AMC series. The Walking Dead. The reactions from first responders have also been quite positive.
- The studio expects a “good start” and even if this new opus does not meet public expectations, it should be a big hit in its 3,700 theaters here and abroad. It is released in 59 markets this year, including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Spain, Taiwan and the United Kingdom. It will easily become the highest-grossing horror title of the year, beating out The Strangers: Chapter 1The current national cume of $34.8 million.
The inconvenients
- Changing the leads (while throwing out the relevant Middle American context for New York) may alienate audiences who fell in love with the Abbott family from the previous two. Replacing the cast with a splashy prequel certainly didn’t help Angry lights up the night sky. Then there’s the horror movie curse of 2024, where many titles have significantly underperformed.
3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Images from Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend price range: $12 million to $20 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 8%
Benefits
- This is the first of four planned films in what is surely one of the most ambitious film projects ever attempted, with an ambition similar to that of Peter Jackson. the Lord of the Rings trilogy or the four parts of Russia War and peace adaptation (1966-67). The challenge of not only making several films at once (Chapter 2 comes out August 16), but partially self-funding their massive production and marketing is a bold move for co-writer/producer/director/star Kevin Costner. Don’t count him out though, since he has just had a spectacular run in the successful modern western series. Yellow stone. This series not only launched a television dynasty for Paramount+, but also brought him a huge financial windfall ($1.3 million per episode by the time he left the series), enough to finance his dream western saga with 38 million dollars of his own money and other investors. and sell foreign rights.
- Our forecast panel says the film was between $10 million and $12 million in major metro areas, while in the central part of the country it performed near $20 million. This is to be expected with this title, which will likely feature plenty of walk-in affairs from a predominantly older audience who were charmed by Costner on Yellow stone, making it consistently one of the highest-rated streaming titles. Escape based on faith The sound of freedom Performance was similar geographically, with overindexing for a start of $19 million and $184 million nationally. Horizon probably won’t have the same legs, but a $20 million cap hit and a domestic run in the $60-$80 million range would make sense based on early tracking data.
The inconvenients
Once a staple American action genre, the western is no longer a genre built for tentpoles. Fewer examples are opening theatrically, while some of the more popular recent entries (The power of the dog, The harder they fall, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) were streaming exclusives. Here’s how five of the biggest theatrical Westerns of the last half-decade fared domestically…
- Hostiles (2017) – Opening of $22,849,000/cume of $29.8M
- The brothers sisters (2018) – Opening $115,575,000/cum $3.1M
- The call of the wild (2020) – $8M opening/$62.3M cume
- World News (2020) – Opening $2.2M/cum $12.6M
- Flower Moon Killers (2023) – $23.2M/$68M cume
All of these titles had big budgets and big stars (Christian Bale, Joaquin Phoenix, Harrison Ford, Tom Hanks, Leonardo DiCaprio), but none performed well enough to warrant a sequel…let alone four films.
- Also keep in mind that Costner was past his box office peak in the early ’90s, when he produced unlikely hits like JFK has The bodyguard to the winner of best film Dance with wolves. Aside from Zack Snyder’s first two Superman films – in which his role as Pa Kent was minor – Costner’s biggest recent theatrical performance was in 2016. Hidden characters ($169.6 million), where he was the fourth leader and was not even on the poster. To know his most profitable leading role in recent years, we have to go back to his last directorial effort, that of 2003. Open range ($58.3 million). Corner is unfortunately no stranger to bloated vanity projects that have failed the public (see the 1997 bombshell The postman), and a current 47% reviewer on Rotten Tomatoes for Horizon is not a good sign.
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