Like most life transitions, the change in tennis power happens gradually, then suddenly. Roger Federer is retired. Rafael Nadal made a smooth pass. Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are hanging on by strings, alas, literally. And so it is that – for the first time in more than 20 years – none of the Big Four are favourites to win Wimbledon.
But here comes the next generation. The reigning champion and winner of the previous majorCarlos Alcaraz. The new number 1 and winner of the previous major tournament, Jannik Sinner. And 126 other men of varying ages, nationalities, styles and abilities on the turf. And of course, Djokovic cannot be fired even if he is physically compromised and 37 years old.
That is, there are many stories that focus on the present and those who are present. We will miss the Big Four when the series officially ends. But there remain compelling narratives, personalities and potential rivals. And if Alcaraz wins his fourth major next month, as we brazenly predict, that wouldn’t be the worst thing for the sport either.
1. Jannik Sinner
Your new No. 1 and winner of the first major of the year, as well as a grass-court event last week. He took a small step back in Paris, losing a semi-final semi-final to Alcaraz. And he was strangely absent last year against Djokovic – but that was the old Sinner. This guy– provided he’s healthy – could easily win the title. Especially if he manages to get points like this in the process:
YES, he did it AGAIN
– José Morgado (@josemorgado) June 20, 2024
2. Novak Djokovic
It’s a testament to both his perseverance and medical science that he’s still in the draw, just weeks later knee surgery. An eighth title – which would put him level with Federer – seems unlikely. And he hasn’t reached the final (let alone won any titles) in 2024. Betting against him is at your own risk. But objectively…
3. Carlos Alcaraz
Your Roland Garros champion. Your reigning Wimbledon champion. Your center of gravity in men’s tennis right now. It’s hard to pick on him. Life is his beanbag right now. Three majors into an inevitable Hall of Fame career, he remains the antithesis of jaded. He’s a joy to watch.
4. Alexander Zverev
He almost won the title in Paris, which is both a source of optimism and concern. A stupid tennis heuristic: German (and Dutch) players play well on grass. But Zverev is just 13-7 for his career at SW19 and has never ventured beyond Round 4. And what is the Frenchman’s residual scar tissue?
5. Daniel Medvedev
Much like Zverev (they have won the same number of matches at Wimbledon), his hard-court skills haven’t always translated to grass. He’s still a good actor, but three years after his only major tournament, is Medvedev becoming an outsider?
6. Andrei Rublev
A copy-paste from the draft folder: “This will sound tougher than expected. But there is an element of counterfeiting here. A top player, week in and week out. A good member of society, despite his penchant for self-flagellation. But he has yet to show he has the metal and physical durability to do so in best-of-five events.
7. Hubert Hurkacz
Let’s start with a trivia question: Who was the last player to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon? Here’s your guy. His elephant pistol serve argues for his position as a contender. His problems closing out big matches will keep him from being a contender.
8. Casper Ruud
Let’s start by emphasizing the positive: the idea of him being a distinguished guest, a benevolent intruder in the game’s exclusive evenings? This is no longer a legitimate argument. His 100 wins and three major finals, plus a stomach-churning semi-final at Roland Garros, over the past 25 months are splendid. But his ability on grass, and his attitude, remain very questionable. He won twice at Wimbledon. If he doesn’t play golf by the middle of the weekend, it will be a triumph.
9. Alex de Minaur
The Australian had a good run at Roland Garros, but De Minaur can now move to a surface that will reward his speed, fluidity of movement and professionalism. He has real value on grass. Can he win? Probably not. Can he go beyond his seed (i.e. reach the semi-finals)? Potentially. But is he likely to lose to someone below him? No.
10. Grigor Dimitrov
It was a very good year for the Bulgarian veteran (he is now 33? Is that true?). On a good day, his easy-to-watch game can rival anyone’s. And we all know the emotional appeal. But there’s too much delta in his game (and mental fitness) to make him a reliable contender in a best-of-five tournament. Trivia: In 2008, the year Nadal beat Federer in the classic final, Dimitrov was the junior champion.
11. Stefanos Tstisipas
The 25-year-old suffers when time is taken away from him. He has shown that he can play on a fast court, but not so much on grass. And then there is the problem of paternal proximity.
12. Tommy Paul
Like a wise man recently said: “It feels like the start of the year @TommyPaul1 the train is back on track after being interrupted by the ankle. You are looking for a good TP. Roll.” The top-ranked American just won the title in Queens and has the athleticism to be a real noisemaker.
13. Taylor Fritz
Fritz seems to have settled into a certain professionalism dead end. He wins most of the matches he should win. He loses most of the ones he should. It’s odd that he was a quarterfinalist in 2022 (losing to injured Nadal); and a second-round loser to Mikael Ymer (no longer an active player) in ’23. He has a potentially tricky first round against Chris O’Connell.
14. Ben Shelton
Shelton’s grass season has been somewhat disappointing, as his athleticism and high-output serve/play should theoretically benefit from the surface.
15. Holger Rune
There is something wrong in Denmark. The talent is undeniable. And you have to keep in mind that he was born the same month as Alcaraz, so there is no crisis. But there’s a lot of drama and personnel changes here. And, more worryingly, he has health problems.
16. Ugo Humbert
The Frenchman steps into the shoes of the 16th seed. He has lost three of his five matches on grass this season (including a three-setter against Roberto Bautista Agut this week).
17. Felix Auger-Aliassime
He has all the tools to be a threat. They just haven’t come together yet.
20. Sebastian Korda
The American continues to amaze us with his game and results (including a warm-up win over Paul and a final appearance in Hertogenbosch). Just like FAA, when does he manage to put things together?
23. Alexander Bublik
Your guess is as good as anyone’s, including his.
27. Tallon Greek Spoor
He showed great versatility and flair in 4.9 sets against Zverev in Paris and in 1.5 sets against Sinner last week. How does he deal with the disappointment of not having managed to conclude?
28. Jack Draper
Currently sixth in the bookies’ list? Really? But hey, anyone who wins a tune-up and beats Alcaraz is automatically selected. There’s so much to like, from the powerful left-hander to the solid Wayne Ferreira in the coaches’ box. Can he adapt to the Wimbledon expectations that weigh on all Brits? Can he adapt to the best-of-five format?
29. Francis Tiafoe
A player so easy to like personally, he seeks to halt a steep decline…
32.Zhizhen Zhang
The 27-year-old is a big striker and is getting tougher. His run to the Halle semi-finals included a win over Medvedev.
Tomas Machac: He has so much power that it should help him on grass.
Chris Eubanks: The star who emerged last year is back on the grass (and, less fortunately, back to defend a considerable number of points).
Arthur Son: No gimmicks here. The French phenomenon is looking for a major breakthrough.
Jordan Thompson/Max Purcell: One of the Australians will qualify for week 2.
Matteo Berrettini: The former Wimbledon finalist would have been seeded had it not been for his injury-related ranking.
John Mpetshi Perricard: Your 2024 Wimbledon champion. Just kidding. Or maybe not. A 6’8″, 20-year-old whose grass court campaign included a win over Shelton.
Billy Harris: Just to cover our bases.
Machac vs Murray: Assuming that happens.
Korda vs. Davidovich Fokina
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Auger-Aliassime
Adrian Mannarino vs. Gaël Monfils: The French championship for people aged 35 and over.
Sinner against Berrettini: A Potential second round match.
Dénia Shapovalov d. Nicolas Jarry
Death of Brandon Nakashima. Sébastien Baez
Hurkacz d. Draper
Alcaraz d. Fisherman
Alcaraz d.Hurkacz