In a recent ZDNET article, my friend and colleague David Gewirtz explains why he considers the upcoming iPhone 16, with its emphasis on iOS 18 and Apple Intelligence, an essential upgrade.
While I appreciate David’s point of view, I disagree.
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David says the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) into iOS 18 makes the iPhone 16 a necessary upgrade for him, highlighting the potential for Apple intelligence to revolutionize how we interact with our devices. Although I agree with his point of view long-termI’m not convinced that the first version of Apple Intelligence will represent the big leap forward in usability that so many people are waiting for.
Every year, my wife and I eagerly await the release of the new iPhone. Being a part of Apple Upgrade Programwe return our devices, reset our loan with Citizens Bank, and get the latest model. For the past few years, I’ve opted for the Pro Maxand my wife chose the basic modelThe expected annual improvements have been gradual but appreciated.
However, despite the buzz around the iPhone 16’s new features and Apple Intelligence integration, several concerns are dampening my enthusiasm for the upgrade.
What They Don’t Tell Us About Apple Intelligence
Apple Intelligence represents a significant advancement in on-device AI capabilities, bringing advanced machine learning and natural language processing directly to our phones. However, this technology is still in its infancy. On-device LLM and generative AI are largely in alpha or beta, and there is significant uncertainty about how they will perform on current Apple mobile hardware.
David sees the AI integration in iOS 18 as a significant step forward. But let’s not kid ourselves. These on-device AI features are in their infancy, which means they might not deliver the seamless experience Apple users have come to expect. When Apple Intelligence launches to the public in fall 2024, it will still be considered a beta, not a finished product.
It’s worth noting that Apple Intelligence isn’t just another random or routine upgrade to iOS or even macOS. The device will be running a stripped-down version of Apple’s core models, an in-house developed extended language model (LLM) that will be several gigabytes in size and have up to 3 billion parameters. (Compare that to the hundreds of billions of parameters used by models like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 — or what Apple will run in its data centers for its “Private Cloud Compute” feature of Apple Intelligence.)
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How this will work on iOS, iPadOS, and MacOS hasn’t been fully detailed to developers yet, but it will need to be loaded – at least partially – into memory, potentially taking up between 750MB and 2GB of RAM when running, according to current estimates, depending on the quality of Apple’s memory compression technology and other factors.
This represents a significant amount of memory allocated to a main operating system function that will not always be used. As a result, certain parts will need to be dynamically loaded in and out of memory as needed, adding new system constraints to applications and potentially putting additional strain on the processor.
Current iPhone hardware isn’t up to par
Earlier this month, I discussed how older iOS devices — including the current generation — aren’t powerful enough to handle on-device generative AI tasks. The base iPhone 15, which has just 6GB of RAM, could struggle to keep up with the demands of Apple Intelligence as it evolves and becomes more integrated with iOS, core Apple apps, and developer apps. Older iPhones have 6GB of RAM or less.
The iPhone 15 Pro, with 8GB of RAM, might be better suited to these tasks. It’s the only iOS device developers can use to test Apple Intelligence (in addition to their Macs and iPad Pros) before the iPhone 16 releases, likely in October. However, many end users may still experience suboptimal performance on an 8GB device when Apple Intelligence is fully implemented.
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Early adopters may find AI features more useful to developers than to ordinary users, as the system may need tweaking and updating to reach its full potential. I also expect that, like base iPhone 15 and earlier iPhone owners who won’t have access to it when upgrading to iOS 18, Apple Intelligence will be a feature that end users can simply disable them, thus saving their memory for application usage.
The upcoming iPhone 16, while it may have more advanced hardware, may also struggle with new AI capabilities due to design cycles that didn’t consider these features. It may take another product cycle or two before the hardware fully aligns with the new AI capabilities that will be rolled out in iOS 18 and beyond. As a result, users may experience suboptimal performance and a less seamless user experience.
Why you shouldn’t buy the iPhone 16 for Apple Intelligence
For these reasons, I view the iPhone 16 (and potentially even the iPhone 17) as transitional products in Apple’s journey with in-device AI.
In addition to further silicon optimizations, future iPhones will likely require more RAM to fully support these AI features, which could drive up costs. If the base iPhone 16 needs 8GB of RAM to effectively run Apple Intelligence, the starting price could be bumped up to $899 or more. Pro models could require 12GB or even 16GB of RAM, which would drive up the price. That would also mean a new A18 chip for the Pro models, while the base iPhone 16 might only get the current A17 — though an “A17X” with 10GB could perhaps be built to give the phone more breathing room in terms of memory.
Also: All iPhone models that will support Apple’s upcoming AI features (for now)
Besides memory issues, AI processing requires a lot of power and additional computing resources. Without significant advancements in battery and power management technology, users may be forced to charge their phones more often. This can lead to increased battery consumption, reduced battery life, and potential performance issues. The additional processing power required to run LLMs on the device could strain the processor, causing the device to heat up and affecting its overall performance and reliability.
How Apple Intelligence Will Likely Evolve
Apple’s artificial intelligence capabilities are expected to improve significantly in the coming years. By 2025, we could see more advanced and reliable integration of Apple’s artificial intelligence, not only on mobile devices and Macs, but also on products such as the Apple Watch, HomePod, the Apple TV and a consumer version of the Vision headset.
To extend Apple Intelligence to these less powerful devices, as the company does with its “Private Cloud Compute” by running secure Darwin-based servers in its data centers for more advanced LLM processing, Apple could leverage Apple-based resources the cloud for these less powerful systems thanks to fully developed data center capabilities and partnerships with companies like OpenAI or Google.
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They could also consider a distributed or “mesh” AI processing system, in which idle devices in a home or business can help less powerful ones perform LLM queries.
Apple could achieve this by bringing macOS 15 Sequoia, iOS 18, and iPadOS 18 with Apple Intelligence and on-device LLM as planned. Future changes to iCloud, iOS, iPadOS, and MacOS could allow all devices to communicate their generative AI capabilities and idle processing state. This would allow them to act as proxies for each other’s Apple Intelligence requests.
Enterprises could also use a mobile device management solution to make it easier to access LLMs on devices with work Macs. Additionally, iPhones or Macs could be used as proxies for Apple Watch or HomePod requests for mobile users. We could also see a more powerful Apple TV with more memory and processing onboard to act as an Apple Intelligence “hub” for every Apple device used in a home.
Imagine if your iPhone used the unused processing power of your Mac or iPad, all of which have built-in LLMs, to tackle complex AI tasks. This would increase the accessibility of AI features across Apple’s entire product line.
Key things to consider before upgrading to iPhone 16
Apple’s AI features are practically in beta: Apple Intelligence is still in its infancy and may not provide the seamless experience Apple users expect. The potential of Apple Intelligence will be realized in future iterations with more mature hardware and software optimizations.
Hardware Limits:The iPhone 16 may struggle to meet Apple Intelligence requirements due to design cycles that did not initially consider these features. The iPhone 16 is a transitional product, and it will likely take another product cycle or two before the hardware is fully compliant with the new AI capabilities.
Battery and performance issues: AI processing is power intensive and could lead to increased battery drain and performance issues.
Wider Improvements:Consider improvements to camera quality, display, and overall performance, not just AI capabilities.
But I remain optimistic.
Despite the hype around Apple Intelligence, there are plenty of other reasons to consider upgrading to the iPhone 16. Improvements in camera quality, display, and overall performance are still worth to be noted. The iPhone 16 will likely feature better sensors, improved computational photography, and superior video capabilities. The display may also see improvements in brightness, color accuracy, and refresh rate, making it a better device for media consumption and gaming.
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However, if you’re considering the iPhone 16 solely for its AI capabilities — which are still evolving and unlikely to deliver the expected performance touted during the WWDC 2024 keynote — you may want to manage your expectations.