Mikhail Sergachev transfer evaluation: Utah upgrades defense at exorbitant price

It wasn’t the last significant trade Utah made on Saturday, but it was certainly the most significant, and it absolutely calls for another edition of Daily face-offIt is Commercial qualities!

UTAH HOCKEY CLUB

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D Mikhail Sergachev, 26 – $8.5 million cap hit through 2031

Utah has had a dire need for defense since their final years in Arizona, so it was somewhat surprising to see them take two forwards on the first day of the draft – suggesting, if anything, that they may have already be another trick up their sleeve. This appears to have been the case.

Sergachev gives the Utah organization its first true top defenseman, even though he is coming off an injury-riddled season with the Lightning. The 26-year-old left-hander only played in 34 games for Tampa Bay during the regular season before suffering a serious broken leg that was expected to keep him out for the rest of the year. Even though he eventually returned for two more games in the playoffs, Sergachev naturally didn’t look much like himself after his return.

Yes, Sergachev has shown in his seven seasons with the Lightning that he is more than capable of logging a ton of minutes and putting up points from the blue line. He’s a 6’3″, 211 pound monster who can skate and play. But is he an $8 million player? This is much less certain. After being isolated by Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh for many years, Sergachev’s star began to fade a bit over the last two seasons once McDonagh left for the Nashville Predators. When healthy, Sergachev’s possession numbers at 5v5 last year were just okay, although he was also quite fatigued by poor goaltending and poor finishing as he was on the ice.

It’s understandable that Utah wanted to make a splash in the draft after many years of general inactivity in Arizona, but in some ways it feels a bit like overdoing it. Sergachev is in the same age range as Clayton Keller, but the real future of this Utah team lies in Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, etc. Subtracting a key piece from this cohort in Conor Geekie to add an $8.5 million defenseman signed through 2031 and coming off a major injury seems like an unnecessary risk for a team that had been patiently accumulating assets since Bill Armstrong took the reins as GM. They compounded that risk later Saturday by trading two additional second-round picks for John Marino, who had his own struggles in New Jersey last season.

If Sergachev scores 64 points again in 2024-25, this trade will be much more understandable for Utah. But you have to remember that, aside from 2022-23, Sergachev has never exceeded 40 points in a single season in the NHL. He’s a talented player, but if he starts looking more like a No. 2 or 3 than a No. 1 after this change of scenery, Utah could have a problem.

Grade: C+

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

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C Conor Geekie, 20 – $886,667 salary cap until 2027
D JJ Moser, 24 years old – RFA
2025 second-round pick
2024 seventh-round pick (199th overall)

It’s tough for any team to lose a talented player, but it’s possible Tampa Bay is secretly happy that Utah is willing to take the final seven years of Sergachev’s contract off its payroll — especially considering the assets they were able to get back in return.

This is nothing short of a boon for the Lightning. Geekie is an exceptional young player who is just two years away from being selected 11th overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. The 6’4″ center is coming off a 43-goal, 99-point season split between the Wenatchee Wild and Swift Current Broncos and projects to become a quality second-line player in the NHL. It is extremely rare to see prospects of this caliber traded so soon after being drafted.

Moser just turned 24 earlier this month and is expected to sign a new contract this summer as a restricted free agent. He was a second-round pick in Armstrong’s first draft as Coyotes general manager and is currently second among all 2021 selections in games played (only behind Cole Sillinger). Moser is a smooth-skating Swiss rearguard with plenty of potential at both ends of the ice and the ability to play on both ends; he’s a great piece for Tampa Bay moving forward and could potentially slot into their second forward pair for a fraction of the cost of Sergachev. After a few years of playing extremely tough minutes on a depleted Coyotes team, Moser could flourish in Tampa Bay with more support.

The picks are also interesting, though the real value lies in the two potential impact players now owned by Tampa Bay. (By the way, the Bolts selected Swedish forward Noah Steen, a two-time returner, with the seventh-round pick they received in this trade.) For a Lightning team firmly in “retooling” mode, getting two players who should fit in as marginal centerpieces for bargain-basement payoffs is extremely valuable, especially as they continue to court Steven Stamkos — and potentially even attempt to sign Jake Guentzel as a free agent.

This is a very smart trade for a Lightning team that made another big move on Saturday, cutting their losses on Tanner Jeannot by trading him to the Los Angeles Kings for a 2nd in 2025 and a 4th in 2024. If Geekie lives up to his immense potential, this could turn into a home run for Tampa Bay. Even if he doesn’t, it still opens up the possibility of doing some really interesting things as they continue to reshape their roster.

Grade: B+

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