We recently compiled a list of The world’s 30 largest economies by 2075 and in this article we will look at which country is expected to be the largest in 2075.
Emerging markets expected to take the lead by 2075
Global potential growth is expected to slow, largely due to slower growth in the labor force, according to a Goldman Sachs study. Projections suggest that global growth will average just under 3% per year and will continue to decline. Global population growth has been halved from 2% per year to less than 1% over the past five decades, and is expected to fall to near zero by 2075. Despite a slowdown in world population growth, Real GDP in developed and emerging economies, emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to continue to outperform developed markets. By 2050, the world’s five largest economies are expected to be China, the United States, India, Indonesia and Germany. You can also view the Top 20 largest economies in the world by 2050.
The United States is not expected to perform exceptionally well due to significantly lower potential growth than large emerging economies. Potential growth in the United States is expected to remain significantly lower than that of large emerging economies such as China and India. The appreciation of the dollar has boosted the value of the U.S. economy, pushing it well above its fair value based on purchasing power parity, but the dollar’s strength is expected to decline over the next decade, suggesting a likely depreciation. Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could also be among the world’s largest economies by 2075 if appropriate policies are implemented. Globalization has significantly reduced income inequality between countries, and emerging markets have led to a more equitable distribution of global income, and global income inequality has declined over the past two decades. However, income inequality within countries has increased, posing a challenge for the future of globalization.
Goldman Sachs’ research also addressed potential challenges to global economic growth and income convergence. The first is the risk that populist nationalism could lead to increased protectionism and a reversal of globalization. Populist nationalists have gained power in several countries and have influenced globalization. However, the risk of a reversal remains clear. Second, the risk of environmental catastrophe from climate change. Many countries have successfully decoupled economic growth from carbon emissions, demonstrating that this goal is achievable on a global scale. However, achieving sustainable growth will require economic sacrifices and a coordinated global response, both of which present significant policy challenges.
For the years 2070-2079, emerging economies are projected to grow by 2.3% and will continue to outpace developed economies with productivity growth of only 1.1%. Asia will remain the fastest growing region, growing by 2.0%, but China is expected to experience one of the sharpest decelerations. Latin American economies are projected to grow by 1.9% and are expected to gradually increase and accelerate over the next decade before decelerating again in recent decades. Growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa is projected to remain relatively stable at 3.2%, with a growing contribution from African economies.
One of the largest companies in Asia
Businesses play an important role as key economic drivers of economies around the world. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD), also known as Pinduoduo Inc., is a leading Chinese company driving economic growth. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD), a multinational business group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses, including Pinduoduo, an innovative e-commerce platform that connects consumers directly to smallholder farmers and provides a network of sourcing, logistics and fulfillment services. The company also focuses on farmer education and modernizing farming practices. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) also operates Temu, an online marketplace that connects consumers to millions of merchandise, manufacturer and brand partners. Temu operates in multiple countries, including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea and South Africa.
On May 22, PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) announced that its revenue for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024 increased 131% to $12.02 billion compared to the prior year. The company’s operating income also increased 275% to $3.94 billion, primarily due to an increase in payment fulfillment and processing fees. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) forecasts strong revenue growth of 71% for Pinduoduo in 2024, and an additional 29% in 2025. The company is focused on long-term growth and has invested $403.0 million in research and development for modernizing agriculture and the supply chain, thereby reducing its costs. The company has $33.31 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
As projections point to a slowdown in global growth, emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are shifting the balance of global economic power.
A panoramic view of the cityscape, showing the impact of the company’s operations in China.
Our methodology
To compile our list of the world’s 30 largest economies by 2075, we consulted Fathom Consulting’s “The Economy in 2100,” which provides data on countries’ estimated percentage share of global GDP in 2100 and the PPP GDP of the top ten economies. We used GDP PPP data from top countries and percentage share to determine the total value of global GDP in 2075. Our calculation resulted in global GDP expected to be around $324.34 trillion by 2075. After determining the global GDP in US dollars, we estimated the PPP GDP of other countries to provide insight into their projected values. We also used population projections for 2075, established by the United Nations. Our list ranks the world’s 30 largest economies by 2075 in ascending order of their 2075 GDP forecasts.
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The world’s largest economy by 2075
1. China
GDP forecast (2075): $66.16 trillion
Estimated share in global GDP (2075): 20.39%
Population forecast (2075): 1.02 billion
China’s economic transformation is one of the most remarkable success stories among middle-income countries. By 2075, China will be the world’s largest economy thanks to its manufacturing industry, exports and investments in technology and infrastructure. China’s GDP is expected to reach $66.16 trillion, accounting for 20.39% of the global economy. China has already overtaken the United States as the largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). China’s population is expected to decline to 1.02 billion by 2075.
Curious to know more about which other countries will become the largest by 2075? Check out our report on The 30 largest economies in the world by 2075.
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