Can Ecuador spoil Argentina’s Copa America party?

Two late goals gave Argentina a 3-0 victory over Ecuador in the quarter-finals of last year’s Copa America, but the scoreline did not reflect the match.

Physically strong, fast and full of talent, Ecuador gave Argentina a tough 90 minutes, as the winning coach was quick to acknowledge. After the game, Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni paid tribute to the potential of Ecuador’s new generation.

In three years, Scaloni will be cautious if he has to face them again in the quarter-finals. Argentina are in the easier half of the table. The team that most threatens their route to the final is the one they will meet on Thursday in Houston, provided Ecuador can raise their level of play.

Ecuador’s group stage in this Copa should not be forgotten. Beaten 2-1 by Venezuela, the Ecuadorians played a difficult second half and had to win 3-1 against Jamaica, but their goal in the 90th minute proved crucial. It allowed them to take the lead on goal difference over Mexico. A draw would have been enough to secure their qualification for the quarter-finals. And it was with dogged determination and without joy that Ecuador managed to keep the score at 0-0.

The strategy nearly came close to disaster when Mexico were awarded a penalty in the final minute of added time, but VAR overturned the decision. Ecuador survived to fight again and now have a chance against the reigning world champions.

Why was their group stage so disappointing?

The players had to dig themselves out of a tight spot after their captain and all-time leading scorer, Enner Valencia, was sent off early in the match against Venezuela. Playing with ten men for over 70 minutes in the afternoon heat in Santa Clara proved too much and the campaign started on a sour note. These things can happen in tournaments. But there are deeper problems.

The atmosphere in which the team operates is an important factor. After the World Cup, Ecuador appointed Félix Sanchez as their new coach. It was a logical choice. A Spaniard, Sanchez played in the youth academies of Barcelona and then in the Aspire academy in Qatar, where the methodology is very similar to that used at Independiente del Valle, the extraordinary little club on the outskirts of Quito that produces so many players for the Ecuadorian national team.

His time at the helm of Qatar was not a failure: he won the Asian Championship. But the World Cup was not a success. The host country’s campaign began with a defeat to Ecuador. So why, many Ecuadorian citizens wondered, did we appoint a loser to lead our team?

Ecuador is a very demanding environment. And although the team’s start to the season in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers was solid (3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss), the quality of play was not considered sufficient. Many want Sanchez to leave. Some openly hoped for a failure in the Copa, forcing the Ecuadorian Federation to make a change. This pressure has not disappeared.

These six World Cup qualifying matches have produced only five goals. Sanchez can provide an excuse here. He has several promising players, most of them from Independiente del Valle. The group of young central defenders is impressive – William Pacho has had an excellent Copa so far. But he lacks attacking resources.

Ecuador are reliant on Valencia for their goals. The former Premier League striker has always been hugely influential and has also been overplayed in 2022-23, having a fine league season in Turkey, before enjoying a good World Cup and then moving straight into the congested Brazilian football calendar. At 34, it is hardly surprising that this has taken its toll.

The other centre-forwards are willing runners, but not necessarily of great quality. For this tournament, we must add the absence, through injury, of Pervis Estupiñán, a key player for Brighton with his powerful runs from the back and his lightning left foot.

Sanchez has not really made any progress in this competition. His team choices are indeed questionable. The job of a coach is to build a collective structure that allows the best out of the individual talents of the team, something he has not yet managed to do. The key man, the engine of the team, is Moisés Caicedo, of Chelsea. He has done his best to make the team work, but he has too far to go.

Caicedo plays as part of a central midfield duo, while it takes three to get the best out of him. With extra protection behind him, Caicedo can use his lung power to run forward, creating problems for the opposition defence and linking the team together.

Sanchez’s basic formation is the 4-2-3-1, which allows him to have a line behind the striker or a winger on the right side, as well as his two young playmakers, Jeremy Sarmiento on the left and 17-year-old prodigy Kendry Páez in the middle. It didn’t work, although both had chances. However, Sarmiento wasn’t quick enough to combine with his teammates, and Páez was stuck in an area of ​​the pitch where marking is tightest. As a result, Ecuador’s whole is not the sum of its parts.

Yet it seems that a solution has been found. At half-time in the match against Mexico, Venezuela replaced its ineffective 4-2-3-1 formation with an extra player in midfield. The Venezuelans began to take control of the game and ended up winning the match. It is strange that Ecuador did not follow suit.

Instead, Sanchez dropped a winger against the Mexicans, brought on an extra striker and pushed Sarmiento and Paez to the flanks, where they were too wide to combine, and with everything stretched, Caicedo was unable to bring the two sides together. But Ecuador – and Sanchez – are still in contention in the competition for another chance to find the right combination. The logical move would be to play three in the centre of midfield – in competition with Argentina where they are strongest – field a speedy winger and leave one of Paez and Sarmiento on the bench.

Another way to fill the midfield would be to have a three-man defense, a formation that Sanchez likes and used less than a month ago in a warm-up friendly against Argentina in Chicago. The problem was the lack of forwards. Paez and Sarmiento formed the front line. Without a physical presence alongside them, they couldn’t keep possession and Ecuador couldn’t get out of its own half. This time, Argentina’s victory was much more convincing than the meager 1-0 scoreline.

But after an hour of play, Valencia came on and the team switched to 4-3-2-1. Suddenly, the game took a completely different turn. Ecuador was able to advance up the pitch and Valencia’s lightning runs worried the Argentine defense.

If Ecuador can repeat such a feat, there is a small chance of an upset and there is a risk that Argentina will fail to defend its Copa America title.