The season is halfway through, so let’s take a look back at how the upcoming free agents performed before the All-Star break in two weeks. Some players made big leaps up the list while a few new players joined the top 25 and others fell off the list entirely.
Note: Anytime you see a number, a slash, and another number, it’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For example, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million contract would be “11/330.”
Ages listed are for the 2025 season.
Soto has a .495 on-base percentage since June 1. He and Mookie Betts are the only qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts. Only six hitters have more home runs than Soto. The cherry on top? Soto’s outfield defense, which was downright abysmal last season, has been rated around league average by advanced metrics. Unless he gets Space Jammed, he’ll be the top free agent in the class.
3. Max Fried, Braves SP, 31 years old
Both of those aces continued to roll into June and are still firmly 1a and 1b pitchers for this free agent class. One could argue for Fried over Burnes because (1) Fried strikes out more batters and (2) pitches left-handed. But most people around the game would put the O’s ace over the top because (1) he has a history of reliability and (2) allows fewer walks than Fried.
Bregman started the year in antarctic fashion, but he’s picked up steam over the past month and a half as the Astros have battled their way to the playoffs. Adames snapped an 0-for-27 three-hit streak Monday, but other than that icy stretch, he’s generally maintained his level of play. You could make a case for either player. Adames plays a premium position, but his offensive resume is less stellar than Bregman’s.
6. Ha-Seong Kim (withdrawn), Padres IF, 29 years old
Kim is ahead of Bellinger and Alonso on our list, thanks to his continued offensive production. The Korean shortstop has an even strikeout-to-walk ratio since May 1. That ability on the bases, combined with superb infield defense and his unique power/speed combo, make Kim an incredibly valuable player.
Alonso played a crucial role in New York’s volcanic June, posting an .868 OPS and six home runs. Unfortunately, the Polar Bear has yet to face the reality of his profile as a right-handed first baseman. He won’t get any better than Freddie Freeman’s 6/162 unless he catches an absolute fire for the second half of the season.
The two-hitter Santander has been on fire since June 1; his 13 home runs in that span are tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most hits in baseball. He offers virtually no value defensively or on the bases, but there are very few offensive players with that kind of track record on both sides of the ball. He makes money with every extra-base hit.
2024 was a disappointing year for Bellinger, who completely reshaped his game in 2023, going from a big-swinging power threat to a more contact-oriented hitter. But his overall profile took a step back this year, with more whiffs and fewer balls hit with an optimal launch angle, which dampened his offensive numbers. Bellinger’s excellent outfield defense and relative youth still give him high upside.
Hernandez has continued to perform and should be an All-Star. He loses a spot simply because Santander is two years younger and has been so, so good. Expect a team to sign Teo to a multi-year deal.
Consistency is Christian Walker and Christian Walker is consistency. There’s not much to say about the 34-year-old who continues to be effective despite the Diamondbacks’ lackluster season.
Lowe missed most of April and May with an oblique issue, but he’s been mostly in his usual low-average, high-power state since his return. Injuries have limited Lowe since his breakout season in 2021, when he hit 31 homers and finished 10th in AL MVP voting. He’s still a run-of-the-mill second baseman about to turn 30, so there’s value here.
13. Tyler O’Neill, Red Sox outfielder, 30
Popeye is alive! O’Neill was briefly on the injured list in late May with a knee issue, but he quickly returned and spent most of June wreaking havoc. He has the 16th-best OPS in baseball this season, behind the top tier of hitters in the world. His injury history is a real red flag, and he still strikes out a lot, but there aren’t many hitters with that kind of power potential.
He should have been in the top rankings, that’s a miss on my part, but there was legitimate reason to doubt Profar’s explosive start. Once a prospect, the Curaçaoan has been a mediocre offensive player for much of his career. Last year, he was downright terrible despite playing at home at Coors Field. But he kept his momentum going and this week, he was selected to start the All-Star Game. He’ll turn 32 this winter with just one year of elite performance, but he’s definitely on track to earn a multi-year contract now.
Flaherty, perhaps one of the most surprising pitchers in the American League, has maintained his form but was forced to sit out his last start with a sore back. If healthy, Flaherty should be a safe bet for the underwhelming Tigers and, potentially, an attractive free-agent option that could land him a multi-year deal.
Martinez missed most of April with a back problem and a late signing that delayed his rise to prominence. But he has been exceptional for the Mets since his return. No team is going to offer a 37-year-old designated hitter a multi-year deal, but Martinez will continue to receive lucrative one-year deals until he proves he no longer deserves them.
17. Jordan Montgomery (out), Diamondbacks SP, 32
18. Blake Snell (opt-out), Giants SP, 32 years old
Injuries and ineffectiveness have hampered Scott Boras’ two late-round signings, who appear to be struggling with the lack of a typical spring training ramp-up. At this point, it would be surprising to see either of them opt out of their current contract.
Torres has been statistically better over the past six weeks, but he still found himself benched by Yankees captain Aaron Boone last weekend after a lackluster stretch of play. He’s always been a low-energy player, but it’s hard to get excited about Torres’ free-agent profile right now. That’s too bad, given his talent and age.
Kikuchi has really struggled over the last month, with a 5.73 ERA over his last seven starts. If Toronto decides to trade, he’ll be a relatively sought-after trade piece, but unless he can turn things around, he’s looking at a one-year deal this winter.
Goldy has been better since the Cardinals got back into the playoff race, but there’s no doubt he’s not the hitter he once was. I’m putting him well below J.D. Martinez, who is the same age, simply because Martinez has a track record of performances at his advanced age. Whereas with Goldschmidt, it’s unclear how fast the slide will continue. Still, it’s good to see things improving for him.
Scott has been one of the most dominant relief pitchers for nearly a year and a half. In 114 innings over that span, he has a 2.05 ERA in 109 appearances with 142 strikeouts. He throws left-handed and doesn’t turn 30 until July 22. A contending club is going to give Scott a lot of money.
23. Yankees outfielder Clay Holmes, 32
It was a tough month for Holmes, who posted an ERA above 5.00 in June. That’s always a possibility for a contact-oriented relief pitcher like Holmes. He looked much better this week against Cincinnati, but the diving pitcher is no longer the best reliever on the market.
Hoffman is sort of the right-handed version of Scott, but a few years older. Since the start of last year, the top-tier starter-turned-reliever has a 1.93 ERA in 91 innings with 115 strikeouts. He’s enjoying life in Philadelphia, but could get a more generous multi-year offer from another club.
The change of scenery hasn’t led to an offensive improvement for the thunderous outfielder. It hasn’t gotten embarrassingly worse yet, but Verdugo, frankly, is just not a very dynamic hitter. He’s a league-average player.
Who fell from the 25th
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Danny Jansen, Blue Jays C, 30 years old: The Blue Jays catcher remains the best option in a very weak catcher market, but he has declined enough at-bats to fall out of the Top 25.
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Rhys Hoskins, Brewers 1B, 32: The Brewers first baseman missed a few weeks in May with a hamstring injury and has been horrendous at the plate since returning. He could opt for the second year of his current deal.
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Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler, 30: The Dodgers’ starting pitcher was terrible and out of sorts in his first eight starts this season after returning from Tommy John before going on the disabled list in late June with a hip issue. He has an outstanding track record, but teams probably need to see some level of production before offering him a big contract. A return to the Dodgers on a one-year deal seems more likely.
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Shane Bieber, Guardians goalkeeper, 30: He won’t pitch this year as he recovers from Tommy John. It’s probably best to put him on hold until he returns.
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Max Kepler, OF twins, 32 years old: The Twins outfielder started strong, but he’s looked awful recently. More concerning, his athleticism seems to be declining as he approaches his 30s. This smells like a one-year deal.