With just three weeks left until the July 30 trade deadline, many clubs will have to decide whether to buy or sell, or a mix of both. Red Sox general manager Craig Breslow recently appeared on today’s episode of the Fenway Rundown podcast with hosts Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam, with both Cotillo and McAdam writing columns on MassLive after the podcast.
Breslow notably suggested the Sox would choose a buy/sell path, rather than trying to walk a fine line between the two. “The path we choose is going to be dictated by a multitude of considerations, none of which are more significant than what happens on the field,” Breslow said. “So I’m still committed to choosing a path. We’re going to get more and more information over the next couple of weeks. But the one thing we can do to help steer us in that direction is to win as many games as possible on the field.”
Choosing how to approach a deadline can be a difficult task for a front office executive, as Breslow himself points out. “My job is different than Alex (Cora) or the players. While they can focus almost exclusively on everything they need to do to prepare to win tonight’s game, I have to think about how best to position ourselves to win tonight’s game, tomorrow’s game and next year’s game. Trying to balance all of those things is sometimes difficult.”
That difficulty sometimes leads decision-makers to try to go for a mix of buy and sell, something Red Sox fans are surely familiar with. In 2022, the club was hovering around .500 heading into the deadline. Then-CBO Chaim Bloom traded Christian Vazquez to the Astros for Wilyer Abreu And Emmanuel Valdez in the clearest “sell” move, but also retained imminent free agents Nathan Eovaldi, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Wacha, Rich hill And JD Martinezwhile “buying” by acquiring Tommy Pham Reds and Eric Hosmer of the Padres.
That plan didn’t work out in the short term, as the Sox fell further behind in the race late in the season and also struggled in 2023, leading to Bloom’s firing and his replacement by Breslow. The Vázquez deal looks better in hindsight, with Abreu becoming a valuable contributor while Valdez played a role at multiple positions within the club, but hindsight is also a double-edged sword as the decision not to trade the other candidates seems reckless now.
Given the frustration with the deadline, it’s perhaps refreshing that Breslow said he’ll lean toward either side, even if he still hasn’t decided between the two paths. The club is 49-40 and currently holds the final wild-card spot in the American League, with the Royals, Astros and Rays not far behind. As Breslow mentioned, the results over the next few weeks will help him decide how to play his cards before the deadline.
If the Sox remain in playoff position, it seems reasonable to expect Breslow to go the buyer route, and he gave some hints about what he might look to do in that scenario. He used the cliché, “You can never have too many pitchers,” and also mentioned a right-handed hitter as a possibility.
“You can never have too many pitchers. You’re always one injury or a few bad outings away from being in trouble, and sometimes when you don’t have enough depth to get through the second half of the season, it puts a pretty significant burden on the bullpen,” Breslow said of the rationale for the pitching search. Offensively, he said the club is “also pretty left-handed heavy (offensively). The possibility of adding some right-handed pitchers on offense could make sense.”
The Sox currently have a rotation consisting of Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford And Josh Winckowski. Houck was pretty dominant earlier in the season, but his numbers have slipped a bit in recent weeks. He had a 1.91 ERA after his June 6 outing, but a 5.19 ERA in his last five starts. That could be random variation, but it’s also possible there’s some fatigue setting in since his 111 innings this year is already a major league record. Winckowski and Crawford are somewhat similar, as neither has gone over 130 innings before. Bello has a 5.19 ERA while Pivetta has a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio, but with lingering home run issues, his ERA remains above 4.00.
Overall, the rotation has been a strength this year, as Boston’s starters have a collective 3.59 ERA, which is seventh-best in the major leagues. But there are some question marks, and the depth isn’t great. That’s partly thanks to Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock And Chris Murphy all requiring season-ending anterior cruciate ligament surgery. Chase Anderson is in the bullpen as a long man but has a 4.89 ERA despite a very lucky .203 batting average on balls in play. Bryan Mata is on a rehabilitation mission, but has mostly pitched in two- to three-inning stretches. Brandon Walter has been on injured reserve all year. Cooper Criswell has been pretty good this year but Brad Keller had rather lukewarm results.
Overall, adding players to this group would be a smart move, especially if any of the current rotation members are facing a workload limit. Cora recently spoke to McAdam for a MassLive story about the possibility of providing breaks to the club’s starters, though those plans have yet to be finalized. And as Breslow mentioned, an injury could strike at any time and increase the need. Some pitchers who could be available at the deadline include: Garrett Crochet, Eric Fedde, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber And Trevor Rogersamong others.
As for the composition, as Breslow said, it is predominantly left-handed. Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong And Ceddanne Rafaela are the only right-handed hitters on the club who have pitched 180 or more times this year. Adding another right-hander could balance things out, but the most obvious position to upgrade would be first base, and the club could have Triston Casas “We look at position by position and look at where we didn’t get the production that we needed,” Breslow said. “And obviously Triston is a huge loss that we have to overcome, but it looks like his rehab is going well and we expect him to come back.”
The Sox hit .226/.316/.384 from first base this year, which translates to a wRC+ of 94, 19th best in the league. That includes solid work from Casas, who hit .244/.344/.513 in 22 games before being placed on injured reserve with a torn cartilage in his midsection. Dominique Smith has taken most of the playing time in Casas’ absence but has hit just .227/.327/.355. Smith and Casas are both left-handed, so the latter’s return wouldn’t change the left-handed-righty balance but should improve the overall offense if Casas is healthy and back to his old self. Casas hasn’t started a rehab assignment yet but is taking sharp swings and could make progress toward hitting from the start this week, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe on X.
If the Sox try to add another right-hander to their roster, some potential candidates would include Luis Robert Jr., Taylor Quarter, Brent Rooker, Justin Turner, Danny Jansen and others, with other clubs perhaps turning to sales in the coming weeks and making other bats available.
As for whether the Sox could take money at the trade deadline, Breslow was optimistic about it. “Every time I’ve been there,” he said, “or had any knowledge that this team was in contention, playing big games, looking at a potential playoff run, the resources were there. I don’t even expect it to play out any differently.”
According to payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox have been among the league’s biggest spenders for most of this century, but they’ve recently pulled the reins. As recently as 2019, they had the major league’s highest payroll, but this year came in 12th with an Opening Day mark of $171 million. For competitive balance tax purposes, the club’s figure is currently $208 million according to Cot’s calculations and $218 million according to Roster Resource.
The CBT’s lowest level is $237 million this year, so the Sox should have plenty of wiggle room to take on money even if they want to stay below that threshold. Although that also depends on Breslow’s correct interpretation of the club’s willingness to spend real money.