Orioles-Cubs series preview: O’s face another last-place team

As fans of an Orioles team that is loaded with young talent, we’d like to think the club is poised to make multiple playoff runs in the coming years. But as the Orioles’ next opponent showed, nothing is guaranteed.

Eight years ago, the Chicago Cubs hoped they had a dynasty in the making. In 2016, they ended a 108-year title drought and, with a formidable core of young stars including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez and Kyle Schwarber, they hoped to make multiple trips to the World Series.

It didn’t work out that way. The Cubs haven’t won a postseason game since 2017, and by 2021, that entire core was gone. Since that dismantling, the Cubs have slowly tried to regain their respectability, and they entered 2024 with their sights set on the competition. Their boldest move was to make Craig Counsell the highest-paid manager in baseball history, stealing him from the division-rival Brewers on a five-year, $40 million contract, hoping he could push a team that narrowly missed the playoffs last year over the finish line.

And for the first month, things went well. After a win on April 26, the Cubs went a season-best 17-9 and eight games over .500. The next day, they were crushed at Fenway Park, 17-0, and they’ve been on a downward spiral ever since, going 25-40 since then. They’ve won just four of 21 series in that span, and only once against a team above .500.

Their starting rotation isn’t to blame: The Cubs currently have three starters with an ERA of 3.16 or lower, all of whom are slated to start against the Orioles in this series. But Chicago’s offense hasn’t quite clicked, particularly in the power department, where their . 369 team SLG is tied for fifth-worst in the major leagues, nearly 100 points below Baltimore’s league-best . 460. The Cubs have 87 home runs to the Orioles’ 146.

The Cubs re-signed former National League MVP Cody Bellinger, who won Comeback Player of the Year last season with 26 homers and an .881 OPS, but he hasn’t been able to recapture his 2023 magic. Outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have been productive, as has new first baseman Michael Busch, but the Cubs haven’t gotten much offensively from the rest of their infield.

The Cubs have struggled in particular in the bullpen, with a 4.29 ERA in relief, which ranks fourth worst in the major leagues. A revolving door of 20 pitchers has made relief appearances this year as the Cubs continue to search for someone who can get outs. Their current group of lefties includes veteran Drew Smyly and the ironic 6-foot-8 Luke Little. Right-hander Tyson Miller (1.83 ERA) has been their most effective reliever, but their closer, Héctor Neris, has a WHIP of nearly 1.6, a BB/9 of 6.4 and has blown one of four save attempts.

The bullpen recently lost veteran Colten Brewer to an embarrassing injury. He broke his hand hitting a wall after a bad outing, which landed him on the 60-day disabled list. I shouldn’t have to say this, but: Don’t hit walls! The Cubs also just signed former Oriole Jorge López, whom the Mets released earlier this year after an infamous mistake. If the O’s can keep the score close against the Cubs’ tough starters, they’ll have a good chance to end the game late in the game.

Match 1: Tuesday, 6:35 p.m., MASN2

Right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99) vs. right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93)

Kremer will make his first start at Camden Yards in nearly two months. He came off the injured list last week and had a great outing in Seattle, pitching five scoreless innings and striking out eight. He faced the Cubs last year at Wrigley Field and got the win, allowing one earned run in five innings and giving up a hit to Christopher Morel.

Although only a quarter of the Orioles’ games this year have been interleague games, Kremer has started a disproportionate number of them. This will be his fourth start in his last five against a National League team, and his sixth against the National League in 12 starts overall. He is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in interleague play.

The Orioles are facing a former division opponent in Taillon, who spent two years with the Yankees before joining the Cubs in 2023. Taillon’s first season in Chicago was a bit of a letdown, but he redeemed himself this year with a 2.99 ERA in 14 starts. He’s been a model of consistency, pitching six or more innings in each of his last five starts. Only once this season has he allowed more than three earned runs. The O’s three veteran outfielders — Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander — have seen Taillon fairly often and are hitting a combined .390 with four homers against him.

Match 2: Wednesday, 6:35 p.m., MASN2

Shota Imanaga (7-2, 3.16) vs. Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.32)

As Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun pointed outThe O’s could have given Burnes the usual rest in the series opener, which would have allowed him to also start the final game of the first half of the series against the Yankees on Sunday. Instead, he’ll have more than a week of rest between that outing and his first of the second half of the series (unless, of course, he makes the All-Star Game in between).

Burnes is a familiar opponent for the Cubs, who faced him often during his six years with the Brewers, where Counsell was his manager. In 16 career games (10 starts) against the Cubs, he is 2-4 with a 3.26 ERA, though he hasn’t beaten them since 2021. Dansby Swanson (9-for-15, two homers) and Ian Happ (7-for-24, one homer) have hit him well, while Burnes has gotten the better of Cody Bellinger (2-for-15) and Patrick Wisdom (1-for-12), though each of them has also homered against him.

It’s a 2024 All-Star game as Orioles fans will get their first look at Japanese sensation Imanaga. The 30-year-old left-hander, who is in his first year in MLB after eight solid seasons in NPB, has been the highlight of the Cubs’ otherwise disappointing season, becoming a fan favorite thanks to his fantastic pitching as well as his charming personality. Imanaga has had an incredible 0.84 ERA in his first nine major league starts, and of the 32 earned runs he’s allowed this season, more than half of them have come in just two atrocious outings. If you take those two starts out of the gate, his ERA for the season would be 1.61, but of course, baseball doesn’t work that way. I can’t wait to see this guy pitch, but I hope not Also GOOD.

Game 3: Thursday, 6:35 p.m., MASN2, MLB Network (out-of-market)

Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95) vs. Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48)

While Albert Suarez was starting to be questioned after his rough outings in the Bronx and Houston, he put together two solid starts in a row, leading the O’s to one-run wins over the Rangers and Athletics. That was enough for Suarez to keep his spot in the rotation when Kremer returned from the injured list, with Cole Irvin being placed in the bullpen instead.

Strikeouts will be key for Suarez. He has allowed just one walk in his last two starts combined after allowing eight in the previous two outings. The last time Suarez faced the Cubs was as a rookie in 2016, the year of the World Series. He is one of six players from that era who are still active in the major leagues.

The Cubs will counter with Steele, their 28-year-old ace. The left-hander missed April with a hamstring injury but has been firing on all cylinders since his return. He has made six straight quality starts, including a 95-pitch complete game against the Angels last week that finally earned him his first win. Steele normally has no ground support or the bullpen squanders his leads — or both — so the O’s are hoping a similar calamity befalls him this time around.