Rookies are starting to report to some NFL training camps and the season of optimism is in full swing. After going through free agency and the draft, every team has reason to believe they will be better in 2024.
It doesn’t take long for that belief to fade for some teams.
Getting the season off to a good start is everyone’s goal, but the reality is that half the league will be 0-1 by the second week of the season. It doesn’t take long for things to start going wrong, as the pressure can mount with each loss.
Not everyone is ready for a strong start to the season. Whether it’s injuries, a tough schedule or coaching changes at key positions, some teams around the league will struggle to get their momentum going early.
From there, it becomes much more difficult to save the season.
Given the schedule, rosters and coaching situations, these six teams could face an uphill battle early in the season.
The buzz is palpable in Atlanta after a very aggressive offseason. The Falcons hired Raheem Morris to replace Arthur Smith as head coach, signed Kirk Cousins and drafted Michael Penix Jr.
There’s good reason to be excited about the offense. They probably have the most improved quarterback situation in the league. Zac Robinson comes over from the Los Angeles Rams to be the offensive coordinator.
But there may be reasons to temper expectations at the start of the season.
Both Cousins and Robinson should have a say on offense. While they both know the ramifications of Sean McVay’s offensive tree, it’s still a process of merging two different perspectives.
Add in the fact that Cousins is recovering from the torn Achilles tendon that ended his season in Week 8 of last season and there are bound to be issues to address.
The defenses they’ll see in the first three weeks, however, will reduce the margin for error early in the season. They’ll open the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers at home before traveling to Philadelphia to see the Eagles in Week 2 and returning to Atlanta to see the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.
The Steelers have their own offensive issues to address, but Pittsburgh, Kansas City and New Orleans were all in the top eight in defensive EPA allowed per play last season. The Eagles’ treacherous end to the season kept them off that list, but they made a lot of changes to their defensive secondary and brought in Vic Fangio to fix the defense.
If the Falcons can’t get off to a flying start on offense, they could be in for a disappointing start to the season.
The Baltimore Ravens will enter the 2024 season with huge expectations. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has helped Lamar Jackson return to his MVP form and a trip to the AFC Championship Game will fuel hopes of another season as a contender.
But there are two glaring concerns that could derail the Rams’ standings.
The first is the offensive line. The Ravens will bring in three new starters this season. Right tackle Morgan Moses was traded to the Jets and will be joined by left guard John Simpson in New York. Kevin Zeitler started at right and left guard for the Detroit Lions.
The Ravens aren’t planning on bringing in proven veterans to fill those positions right now. Monken acknowledged it will be crucial to put on protections and see what the young group can do.
“We’re in the developmental realm right now,” Monken said, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. “All these guys are getting invaluable reps now, and obviously once we get the protections on, for them, (that’s) where it’s going to be really critical. We’ll get a chance to play in the preseason, and then you can evaluate, ‘Hey, as they continue to develop, what are their strengths? (What) do we need to continue to work on?’”
Figuring out who will fill those three starting positions and how to maximize their talents within the system could take some time.
Add to that a defense that will have to deal with the transition from Mike Macdonald to Zach Orr as defensive coordinator and the Ravens could experience some growing pains early in the season.
The Indianapolis Colts’ potential will be determined by Anthony Richardson’s performance this season. His performance will likely depend on his health.
Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after playing four games last season, but he was hit early and often. Backup Gardner Minshew played at least a few snaps in every game except Week 3.
Most concerning is that Richardson’s surgically repaired shoulder still impacted his reps during OTAs earlier this summer. While he certainly benefited mentally from a year of sitting in meetings and learning the offense, there’s no substitute for actual reps.
Richardson was viewed more as a toolkit than a finished product coming out of Florida. Missing most of his rookie season could change the timeline for him to flourish.
The Colts’ schedule isn’t doing them any favors. They open the season against the Houston Texans at home before traveling to Lambeau to meet the Green Bay Packers in Week 2. Both teams are emerging playoff contenders and their young quarterbacks are ahead of Richardson right now.
They will continue with a much improved Bears team, a good defensive team with the Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars who swept them last season.
There are probably some wins in there, but they’ll have to keep Richardson healthy and they don’t have Gardner Minshew II this season.
The Colts have some tough games to start the season, but they’re not in as dire a position as AFC South rival Jacksonville. The Jaguars are hoping to take the next step after re-signing Trevor Lawrence and retaining offensive coordinator Press Taylor in 2024.
They will have to be ready from the first week to avoid a disastrous start to the season.
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Jaguars won’t have a better than 44 percent chance of winning a game heading into their Week 5 matchup with the Colts. Their opening quartet of games includes three road trips and four opponents with winning records from last season.
It starts with a trip to Miami, where new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will be tasked with immediately slowing down the league’s fastest offense. Then it’ll be the offense’s turn to be tested in a Week 2 matchup against Myles Garrett and the Browns defense.
Back-to-back trips to the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans mean Josh Allen and CJ Stroud will face another tough test for a defense that ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories last season.
The Jaguars don’t necessarily have as much turnover and uncertainty as some other teams heading into a disastrous start, but they might have the toughest schedule.
The Rams defied expectations last season with a 10-7 season and another playoff appearance under Sean McVay. It’s easy to forget that most of their success came after a 3-6 start.
Last year, they struggled to adjust to a brutal early-season schedule while integrating plenty of young talent on both sides of the ball.
It could be a repeat of déjà vu in Los Angeles. The Rams have had some of the toughest opening weeks in the league. They should be favored in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, but that game is sandwiched between a trip to the Detroit Lions to open the season and a Week 3 game against the San Francisco 49ers.
These are the two teams that have played for the NFC Championship in the first three weeks of the season.
Unless they pull off an upset in either game, they could be 1-2 heading into their Week 4 road trip against the Chicago Bears. While that game might have seemed easy last season, the Bears should be much better and the Green Bay Packers await them in Week 5.
The good news is that schedule makers have given Sean McVay and the Rams some breathing room. They’ll get an early break in Week 6, while the Raiders and Vikings will be on the schedule in Weeks 7 and 8.
Winning just one or two games early in the season could trigger the “Rams are dead” scenario, but they could be saved by the bye week again this year.
Vikings management has repeatedly used the term “competitive rebuild” when building Minnesota’s current roster.
We’ll see pretty quickly how competitive the rebuild will be now that Kirk Cousins is out of the picture. The Vikings allowed Cousins to leave in free agency, signed Sam Darnold as a mid-level starter, and drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of this year’s draft.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell has already confirmed that Darnold will be the starting quarterback in training camp. McCarthy is only 21 and was selected based on his long-term projections. It would make sense for him not to start right away.
Darnold will have a solid supporting cast, but he’s going to have to play the best football we’ve seen him play for the Vikings to have a good start to the season. They open the season with a very winnable game against the New York Giants, but the schedule quickly intensifies from there.
Mike Clay’s projections give the Vikings a 60% chance to beat the Giants in Week 1, but don’t see them as favorites again until Week 11 against the Tennessee Titans. They won’t have a game close to 50% until Week 9 against the Colts.
That may be underestimating what the Vikings will be able to do with their supporting cast and an aggressive defense. But they will have three playoff teams in Weeks 2-4, followed by the New York Jets, who could be a playoff team if Aaron Rodgers is healthy and plays well.