In the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft, with the 14th overall pick, the Chicago Cubs tonight selected Florida State third baseman Cam Smith. They didn’t overthink it. They just took a really, really good hitter who was available at their position. I don’t expect much of a bonus pool impact here. This pick reminds me of — not the player compensation, just the style of pick — Matt Shaw last year. Lots of good college hitters available at your position? Okay, pick the one you like. End.
Smith, 21, who should be able to stick around at third base, has been one of the best hitters in a loaded ACC this year, hitting .387/.488/.654 with nearly as many walks (44) and extra-base hits (39) as strikeouts (48).
And, true to Cubs draft form, he’s already played in a wood-bat league — last summer in the Cape Cod League — and ranked highly. Add in the significant improvements from his freshman year at FSU to his sophomore year, plus huge batted ball data, and you’ve got the platonic ideal of a Cubs draft pick.
Some rankings:
MLB Pipeline ranked Smith exactly 14th:
“At 6’3” and 220 pounds, Smith already looks to be in the sweet spot with plenty of strength. The amount of swings he throws will help determine how consistently he can get his raw power, and he answered that question well last summer and this spring. He struggled to stick to an approach and get quality at-bats in his rookie year, often chasing pitches out of the zone, but that improved dramatically in Cape Town, with his miss rate dropping from 29% to 19% over the summer. That’s a trend that has continued in 2024 as Smith has continued to minimize his misses.
Smith is running better than he did in high school and has a chance to become a very good third baseman with a strong arm at the next level. His ability to replicate, and even surpass, what he did in Cape Town during his sophomore campaign in Tallahassee has allowed him to be the kind of college player who is on the rise.
Keith Law had ranked Smith 19th:
“Smith reworked his swing and body last season, going from a .258/.326/.517 line as a 20-year-old freshman at FSU to a .387/.488/.654 line as a draft-eligible sophomore, improving in every way possible as a hitter. He’s looser and freer at the plate, and at least subjectively, it seems like his bat speed has increased. He’s always had a short path to the ball, so now he’s getting the bat into the zone earlier and with more force.
Smith hit very well in the Cape last summer, hitting .347/.407/.575, which ranked fourth in slugging percentage among hitters with at least 100 PAs there. He played third base in Tallahassee, but scouts think he ends up at first base or perhaps in the corner outfield, where he still profiles as an above-average regular thanks to his combination of power and patience.
FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen was the big Smith expert, putting him right at No. 7 as the top 45+ prospect:
“Smith is a second-year, XL-eligible third baseman with rare defensive abilities for a player his size. Smith is built like an outside linebacker at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds. He hit .331/.420/.594 during his career at Florida State and showed substantial improvement in his strikeouts and passing as a soph.
Smith’s profile is characterized by power on all pitches. He’s a super strong guy who can generate massive power with little mechanical distance. His swing changed in his sophomore year, and he now resembles a more squat Alec Bohm, with simple footwork, no two-grip stride, a shallow charge, and a bat path that tends to lift the ball less often than is ideal for someone with that kind of power. At times, Smith’s lower half is so stagnant that it seems to prevent him from reaching pitches on the outside edge; he ends up stuck in the mud and can’t reach that spot. The same could be said about Smith’s overall swing, which somewhat detracts from his athleticism. He is, however, strong enough to hit for power with a simple swing.
On defense, Smith has rare flexibility for an athlete his size and sometimes makes incredible plays for such a big guy. But his hands are inconsistent, and if he continues to grow and get bigger in his 20s (think Miguel Sanó), he will almost certainly lack the mobility to play third base. I am personally more optimistic about his ability to improve at that level than the general industry sentiment seems to be. While he is likely a slow-developing player compared to most college prospects, Smith’s potential as an everyday third baseman puts him in the running for a top-10 pick.
Prospects Live had Smith at 13th:
“After an up-and-down freshman season at Florida State in 2023, Smith really broke out in the Cape Cod League for Hyannis in 2023. He improved in nearly every facet of his game, reducing his strikeout rate by more than double from the spring while maintaining the extra-base impact he has long been known for. That carried over into 2024, where his swing, whiff and chase rates all dropped drastically. He consistently records elite exit velocities from a relatively simple operation, where he uses a foot tap with a silent charge. His flat bat path leads to a ton of dizzying line drives that frequently extend over the fence due to his bat speed. His ability to hit the ball hard and often with the contact rates he displayed over the summer makes him one of the most capable hitters in the class. He also moves remarkably well at third base, which should be his long-term home as a pro. Last summer was crucial to Smith’s value, and we should see him selected high in the draft if he can build on that success.
Some excerpts: