The greatest trick White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley ever pulled was managing to surprise the industry by selecting a type of player he’d already spent multiple first-round picks on in his five years of drafting.
But to be fair, even fifth overall pick Hagen Smith didn’t claim to have seen it coming.
“I met with them once before the draft, maybe two or three weeks ago in Omaha,” Smith said of the White Sox’s interest. “Honestly, I didn’t really have a strong idea going in. I’ve talked to them in the past, maybe a couple weeks before the draft. But nothing, really, until the phone call right before my agent made his pick.”
Shirley certainly wasn’t lacking in confidence in Smith, generously comparing him to Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet and Noah Schultz and explaining how he fits into a group full of “elite athletes with elite stuff.” But he also avoided the cliché of “He was number 1 on our board from the beginning. Instead, Shirley described a draft that featured an unusual level of uncertainty at the top, with cascading effects. Shirley said that ultimately, six players were in play for them at the end with the No. 5 pick.
“There was a lot of monetary value that was considered,” Shirley said. “It was tricky. The Guardians, everybody in the league was waiting for them to make that selection. It got complicated. We looked at a lot of opportunities, but we were very excited about Hagen. He was a target among that group of players.”
It certainly made it seem like the Sox were more excited about Smith at the price they got him for than focusing on a single target, especially with the need to acquire two prep players off their college commitments in the next two picks. Even for the Sox getting Smith, I’m told it involved successfully outbidding another team interested in the lefty behind them in the draft.
“We talked to a lot of players,” Shirley said. “We talked to the players that came before us. We played the financial game. We understood what was going on in the industry. It’s our job to exhaust all the avenues to make the right choice. So it was tricky to know what Cincinnati was going to do at No. 2. It worked out the rest of the draft. We were comfortable with what Oakland was going to do in front of us. We were aggressive in front of us. We were trying to acquire a lot of pieces. It was a quality draft at the top.”
Area codes
White Sox management and scouts know their team doesn’t outbid the Dodgers and Yankees for free agents, so you often find them trying to establish a niche and dominate it.
Throwing the bulk of international bonuses at older Cuban prospects hasn’t paid off in a while. But when I followed JJ Lally last month as he was literally trying to make decisions on next summer’s Area Codes team, he mentioned multiple times that last year’s version was the best White Sox Area Codes team he’d seen in years, containing a slew of likely first-day draft picks. That’s rare, since the Sox team is comprised of top talent from 17 Midwestern states that tend to be limited by cold weather.
Unsurprisingly, the Sox looked to reap the rewards of unique talent in a region they seek to dominate, as infielder Caleb Bonemer and left-handed pitcher Blake Larson both hail from the Midwest and played on this team, although the latter transferred to IMG Academy in Florida.
It also helped that Bonemer dominated the team’s marquee event, as the right-handed infielder showed his drawing power at Area Codes in front of team officials — and also at the Perfect Game National Showcase — and outweighed his inconsistency elsewhere.
“Michigan high school baseball is not at the level of the summer circuit,” Shirley said of Bonemer. “When he’s playing against professional players all summer long on that circuit and he’s playing at an extremely high level and scoring runs, he’s a game changer.”
Bonemer was drafted as a shortstop, and Shirley said the White Sox will “exhaust every avenue to keep him there,” meaning it’s unlikely to be his long-term defensive home, but he’ll have a chance to prove it in the lower minor leagues.
Brian Bannister
A quick rationalization for an organization in need of offense taking two pitchers in its first three picks is that it acquired developmental projects it has confidence in, and the draft is about acquiring value rather than building a full major league roster.
Shirley left no room for doubt, mentioning Bannister’s affection for Smith and Larson. When he spoke to the media in Arizona last month, Bannister tried to downplay his role in draft-day decisions, saying he was simply eager to see who Shirley liked and would work from there, but the White Sox scouting director only sought to exaggerate his involvement. And honestly, why not mention the guy the organization hired for exactly that kind of thing.
“Brian Bannister was excited about what Blake did, our scouts were excited about Blake,” Shirley said. “The interesting thing about Larson is he’s so different in the world of stuff that we live in, if you look closely, his fifth and sixth innings were better than his first and second. He gets stronger as the game goes on, which is rare in this world of stuff. Guys come out blowing the heaters. This guy is really competitive. You’ll see his best performances sometimes later in the game because he tries to put his foot on the gas when it counts and he tries to get wins.”
Smith’s huge fastball, sweeping slider and developing changeup suggest another powerful, supinated lefty in the mold of Crochet or Jake Eder. While Smith says he likes where his changeup is but hasn’t needed it much in games, it’s at least the skeleton of a pitcher profile that Bannister has helped add cutters to this year. The Zoom recording didn’t quite capture it, but Shirley’s initial response to my question about the possibility of adding a cutter for Smith is best described as a wry smile.
“We took Garrett, we took Noah and now we have another piece of the same business,” Shirley said. “It’s working, guys. I’d like to think our success rate in this arena is something we have to continue to build on. You know what it means to be a starting pitcher in this league. It’s hard to find. And it takes a lot of it if you want to build championship clubs.”
Significant financial demands in a new landscape
Most sessions with hiring managers are conducted in a triumphant tone, and this was no different, but Shirley certainly spoke like a man at the end of an exhilarating day that had included some frustration.
“There was a lot of movement in the top five picks,” Shirley said. “The process was a little delayed with Cleveland, everyone in the industry was waiting for the Guardians to set that parameter.”
The Sox ended up with two preseason picks, suggesting they found targets for what is typically a small collection of moves to attract higher-ceiling talent with over-the-slot deals. Shirley noted both the expected impact of NIL money giving players more leverage when weighing the pros and cons of entering pro baseball or starting/staying in college baseball. But he also made it clear he didn’t think much of the high school crop was realistic about other new elements of the college baseball landscape.
“I’m a little surprised that high school players aren’t getting a more realistic idea of where they fit into the transfer portal landscape. It’s tough for incoming freshmen. It seems like the demands have been a little high,” Shirley said. “We still think there are players in the room right now that are thinking about it. There are a few players left on the board. We’re going to have to make sure we manage the financial aspects of this. Hopefully those players — everybody wants to go on Day 1. Once they get a chance to lay their head on the pillow, swallow a little bit of the disappointment, maybe we should say, hopefully the numbers come back a little bit more realistic tomorrow and we can hit where we need to hit.”
It would be nice, when the dust settles and this project is years away, to find out which player asking for a $2 million bonus was really the straw that broke the camel’s back for Shirley.
“Everybody wants to go in there from Day 1,” Shirley said. “It’s funny, a lot of guys are asking for $2 million. Well, I want $2 million too, but you don’t always get what you want, if that makes sense. So you have to go back. You have to make people feel more comfortable and go back in there to get a good deal and, more importantly, reach a ceiling and players that you think can make an impact. We need hitters, as a whole.”
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