Hollinger: Why Team USA’s upcoming games will be a very different test

On one level, Team USA’s quest for Olympic gold in men’s basketball is a race against time.

For NBA stars who play internationally for the Red, White and Blue, FIBA’s rules are different enough to require real adjustments in the way they play. Given their lack of familiarity (even Team USA’s most experienced internationals get far fewer reps than players from the European powerhouses), it’s been a constant process from the start of the summer.

In every tournament, the game within the game is whether the more talented team can make enough adjustments to prevail over opponents who are much more familiar with the rules of the game.

At the Tokyo Olympics, they did it—barely—going from losing warm-up games to Nigeria and Australia to losing to France in the preliminary rounds, only to beat the French by five points in the gold medal game. At the 2019 and 2023 World Cups… not so much. The U.S. lost to Serbia and France to finish seventh in 2019; the Americans lost to Lithuania, Germany, and Canada to finish fourth in 2023.

It’s fair to say that the United States suffered in these World Cups due to the lack of competitive preliminary games that would have allowed them to prepare for the knockout stages. The Olympics are probably better for the United States because only 12 teams are invited instead of 32. Because of the limited field, almost all of the games are against solid, if not good, teams without the side effects of a 110-62 win over Jordan to distract them.

By the start of the round of 16 on August 6, the United States will have faced every gold medal contender except France. The exhibition schedule includes Canada, Australia, Serbia and Germany, and they will face Serbia again in the group stage (with slightly lighter games against South Sudan and Puerto Rico).

The first two of those exhibitions, against Canada and Australia, were very different from what the United States is likely to face against Germany, Serbia and France. I feel this perhaps all the more acutely because I watched each of the last three teams play their warm-up games.

The United States still plays NBA basketball and has to adapt to FIBA ​​basketball. The first two opponents, while talented, have not been particularly helpful to that cause.

In Canada’s case, it’s a shame that our friends to the north were the only plausible opponents for a U.S. basketball exhibition in North America before they crossed the ocean. I’d argue that it was just as bad for Canada. What both teams needed was to play FIBA-style players as soon as possible.

Instead, two star-studded teams essentially played an NBA game in Las Vegas on Wednesday (I was there, along with another basketball fan named Barry and a few others). While the crowd was raucous and the U.S. got the result they wanted, they barely managed a point per possession against a rather unimpressive Canadian front line and, hilariously, needed only 23 three-point attempts in a FIBA ​​game with Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum on the team.

Things have been better against Australia on offense, though the U.S. still commits far too many turnovers (18) and occasionally falls back into the iso-ball game that was a problem at the World Cup. The Aussies probably have the fewest shots of any serious medal contender, making just 4 of 18 three-pointers, but the fact that they still scored 92 points is troubling.

Which brings us to the next part, and the adjustment part. Take a look at the statistics from abroad: France, Serbia and Germany play a different game. Even with three All-Star-level centers on the court, France and Serbia combined for 56 three-pointers and just 51 two-pointers in their exhibition Friday. A few days earlier, the French and Germans had two exhibitions and combined for 112 three-pointers and 126 two-pointers.

While three-pointers have played a much bigger role, these teams also play a much slower, dirtier game. The losing team has failed to top 70 points in all three games, and offensive rebounds—the bane of the U.S. 2023 World Cup team—have been essential (and incredibly frequent) in two of them.

There’s no reason the U.S. can’t play that way, and history shows that the U.S. team tends to evolve as the tournament goes on. The return of Kevin Durant — historically a U.S. cheat in international competition — and the exploitation of more value from the shorter international three-point line will help. Unlike last summer, size isn’t an issue with Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo on the roster.

Embiid probably underscores the American challenge more than anyone. He has never played international basketball at this level, and his discomfort during FIBA’s tuneups has been palpable. He was brutal against Canada, started slowly against Australia and looked better in the second half, but so far Davis has been a superior option.

Yet even in his minutes, little vignettes stand out that make you wonder how the United States will adjust on offense.

Here’s a kickout pass from Adebayo-Davis when the two shared the court Monday. It was one of several trips in the two exhibitions where the U.S. failed to master the spacing to get a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. Instead, you could almost feel Team USA shrugging and saying, “I guess we’ll take a 20-foot-2.”

This clip is, however, a small anecdote. In the larger context, another clip explains in detail how different the FIBA ​​attacking style must be.

Here’s a LeBron James post-up on the right block. See what’s different about an NBA post-up? A big man is standing right under the basket, just hanging out. James isn’t going to get a clean shot to the basket even if he beats his opponent. And worse, his opponent knows this and feels emboldened to press him and take away a shot in return.

That extra defender at the rim doesn’t exist in the NBA because of the three-second defensive rule, and that changes everything. (Defensively, the U.S. doesn’t always know when it can have that defender in position to defend.) A lot of awkward, stand-up possessions that end with Anthony Edwards making a one-on-five are a downstream consequence of that guy under the rim taking over a one-on-one shot.

The elixir to help the defender in the charging circle is quick cuts and ball movements, the kind of five-man orchestration that takes time to master as a unit. Compare Team USA’s attack with some of the possessions in Friday’s France-Serbia game. Watch France’s first play of the second half. The French throw the ball left to right and back again; all five players touch it in quick succession before the sixth pass of the sequence results in a wide-open corner 3:

The United States is not capable of such possession at the moment. If the Americans ever achieve it, no one will touch them.

The European teams and players the United States is set to play have years of experience playing against each other in FIBA ​​summer tournaments, dating back to their teenage years. Some are NBA players, sure, but they have never lost their passion for FIBA; it is too ingrained.

Meanwhile, the Americans have three weeks to catch up. They also have more talent, and at the Olympics in particular, that’s usually what makes the difference. But make no mistake: The United States is in a race against time to acquire the skills required by FIBA, and the first two games have put sand in the sand without doing much to advance their education. Serbia is waiting for the next one, and it’s fair to say that’s when the Serbs are preparing. real the adjustment begins.

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Required Reading

(Top photo: United States v Australia: Christopher Pike/Getty Images)