2024 Fantasy Football Draft Simulation 2.0


If you want to become a better golfer, hit the driving range.

If you want to become a better fantasy football manager, head over to the Draft Simulation Lounge.

That’s what 10 Yahooligans did three days ago, selecting 150 players in a 15-round draft. The managers selected these traits in mind: four touchdown passes, half a PPR point, with nine starters each week (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 PK, 1 DEF) and six reserves. The timer was set to 30 seconds, to simulate the pressure of a real draft. Do those reps, players.

We won’t play in that league, but that hasn’t stopped us from constantly fighting and fighting competitively. We always want to fight, even when it doesn’t matter.

Let’s start by meeting the mockingbirds, then I’ll walk you through some key takeaways.

  • Team 1: John Galinsky, Yahoo Audience Engagement Team

  • Team 2: Andy Behrens, fantasy analyst at Yahoo

  • Team 3:Dalton Del Don, fantasy analyst at Yahoo

  • Team 4: Collin Brennan, Yahoo Podcast Producer

  • Team 5: Scott Pianowski, fantasy analyst at Yahoo

  • Team 6: Trevor Brigham, Yahoo Customer Support

  • Team 7: Kate Magdziuk, Fantastic Editor/Analyst at Yahoo

  • Team 8: Matt Harmon, Yahoo fantasy analyst

  • Team 9: Aaron Tan, Social Media Editor at Yahoo

  • Team 10: Jason Klabacha, Yahoo’s fantasy editor

Before we get into the key takeaways, here’s a turn-by-turn chart that you can click on to see the full project.

All of the players in the first two rounds were running backs or receivers; wide receivers covered 60% of the first round and that ratio reversed for running backs in the second round. Star tight ends Sam LaPorta (Pick 3.02) and Travis Kelce (Pick 4.01) spent some time in the green room, waiting.

Three different position configurations were used to build our initial roster; three managers started with two receivers, three managers started with two running backs, and the last four went with an even 1-1 split. I was one of the RB-RB teams, a strategy I rarely use in formats where three receivers are required. But this theoretical league only called for two starting receivers, and boy, mock drafts are all about experimentation anyway. So I opted to stray from my preferred roster configuration, at least this time around.

Receivers had the last laugh, as 57 receivers were selected compared to 47 running backs. This surprised me a bit; I would have thought this ratio would slightly favor running backs, as late-round backfield picks are typically just one teammate injury away from increasing their value.

The Buckeyes have been a veritable receiver factory in recent years, and you’ll have a lot of different opinions as to which receiver is the best. Chris Olave has his fans, for sure, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is a promising prospect – both were selected in the second round.

But the first OSU receiver off the board was Wilson (2.03 pick), who was very good but not great for two years, hampered by poor quarterback play. Returning QB Aaron Rodgers has often been a kingmaker for his receivers, of course, and Wilson’s touchdown total is likely to increase in his third season. I didn’t get Wilson, but I would have taken him if he had fallen to my mid-round pick.

As for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, OSU’s top recruit of the year, he lasted until the 11th round.

Harrison’s selection in the second round was predictable, in line with Yahoo’s top ADP, but otherwise the room was cold toward the incoming class of talent. A modest 13 rookies were drafted, and nine of them were selected in the ninth round or later. After Harrison, the next freshmen selected were Malik Nabers (6th round), Jonathon Brooks (7th round) and Keon Coleman (7th round).

Rome Odunze fell to the 11th round, a modest surprise. Jayden Daniels was taken in the 10th round, but the other starting quarterbacks were passed over, including Caleb Williams. Of course, there is a reasonable explanation for this…

This observation applies to standard quarterback formats with a reasonable number of managers. Obviously, if your league requires multiple players at this position, or if you play in a giant manager league, the strategy changes considerably. But this position has great depth throughout the league right now, a mix of passers and combo threats, a mix of experience and youth, and it takes the anxiety out of the quarterback hunt. No matter when you decide to jump into the fantasy quarterback fray, you’ll probably be at least satisfied, at most delighted.

Real teams always emphasize the quarterback. Fantasy managers don’t have to.

The average draft round for everyone’s first quarterback (some drafted two) is a reasonable 7.2. The room ignored the position until Josh Allen was selected in Round 4. Two guys with multiple MVPs (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) held out until Round 6. I waited the longest to take a quarterback and still got Joe Burrow in Round 11. Dak Prescott was selected in Round 10, and he’s not even the presumed starter for this fantasy manager.

And there’s an interesting reason why Prescott is a clipboard carrier in this mock draft…

Collin Brennan, podcast producer extraordinaire, drafted Richardson in the fourth round as QB2. You can understand the excitement; Richardson is a dual-threat player and Shane Steichen is a play-calling wizard. Maybe a healthy Richardson can establish himself as the No. 1 pick at the position.

Still, the ticket price was steep. Richardson’s pick was just two picks after Allen, one round ahead of Jalen Hurts, two rounds ahead of Mahomes and Jackson. Given the modest player penetration percentage in this league and the depth of QB in the league, I’d argue that targeting Richardson so early solves a problem that doesn’t exist. Brennan could easily end up starting Prescott over Richardson most of the time, in theory, and in leagues with 12 or fewer managers (and remember, this exercise was drafted at 10), it’s generally very difficult to find a trade partner if you’re loaded at quarterback.

I like up-and-comers like the next guy. But a speculative quarterback who breaks out in the 4th round is not my thing, the opportunity cost is too high. Collin was the last team to start building a running back room. Of course, any draft strategy can work if you pick the right players.

The editors asked everyone to draft a full starting lineup, which is why you’ll see 10 kickers and 10 defenders on the board. Browse and examine as you wish. But many savvy fantasy managers choose to avoid the less important positions in early summer drafts, instead filling their bench with a few speculative plays that could have significant value by September if things go well. The waiver wire in almost every league has very high replacement value for kickers and defenses — especially in a pool that only has 10 managers — so filling those spots doesn’t need to be a priority.

My D/ST pick was the Bengals, and that comes down to one simple thing: they are the biggest favorites in Week 1 (by 9.5 points against New England) and D/ST production correlates with favored teams. If we were playing in that league, I would likely be spreading the D/ST position, adding and removing a new defense on a regular basis.

If you want to see the full team lineups, you can browse this table to see each of the 10 rosters.



Source link

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to Top