SAN FRANCISCO — In late February, Alex Cobb stood by his locker at Scottsdale Stadium and scanned the room. The Giants hadn’t even signed Blake Snell yet, but when Cobb looked around and saw a mix of veteran starters and big-time prospects, he lit up. Cobb spoke enthusiastically about the pressure that would come on what appeared to be a loaded rotation, and that’s exactly what he wanted.
At the time, Cobb was feeling so healthy after rehabbing from hip surgery that teammates began to speculate that he might return in early April. Ninety-seven games later, Cobb has yet to throw a pitch in a major league game, though he’s come pretty close.
The first half of the season hasn’t gone the way the Giants hoped, but as they begin Friday night in Denver, they’re hoping to build on the positive vibes they felt in February. A rotation that featured just two pitchers at a time when they were at their lowest point in the first half should finally be complete by the end of the month. Robbie Ray could be back as early as next week, and Cobb is on track to return by the July 30 trade deadline.
“I think the whole team feels like we’re ready to go after the All-Star break when we know what the rotation looks like,” pitching coach Bryan Price said Sunday on “Giants Postgame Live.” “We know we’ll have five healthy players, we know we’ll have guys who are still developing in Triple-A who can provide some support if we need it. We potentially have the ability to reduce the workload in the bullpen, which would be huge.”
“If we could lighten the load on the bullpen a little bit and let them pitch more rested, I think we could expect them to be strong for the rest of the season.”
This Giants team was built on good pitching, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi trading away a former Cy Young Award winner (Ray) and signing another (Snell) in the offseason. But in the first half of the season, the Giants ranked in the bottom third of the major leagues in overall earned run average and 23rd in starters’ earned run average (4.49). Even with the National League’s innings leader leading the group, they ranked last in innings from their rotation.
Zaidi has heard the complaints from fans in previous seasons, when the staff relied heavily on openers and bullpen games. He doesn’t necessarily agree with them entirely — the Giants are above .500 in bullpen games this year, though they’re below average overall — but he put together a more traditional group over the winter. For a number of reasons, it didn’t work.
Snell has been the biggest disappointment, posting a 6.31 ERA in eight starts and being placed on the disabled list twice with a pulled groin. But both stints had a silver lining. In a strange way, after four rehab starts in Triple-A and one in A-ball, Snell has put together a different kind of spring training.
He felt rushed early in the year after signing late, but this month he finally looks like the reigning Cy Young Award winner. In two starts in the last home game, Snell allowed just two hits in 12 innings.
Even with his high ERA, most of Snell’s stats are in line with last season’s numbers, and he’s always been a second-half pitcher. More than any other Giant, he looks ready to make a big finish, and he potentially has millions on the line. If he keeps pitching like he did last Sunday, when he faced the minimum over seven innings, Snell will have a better argument to opt out of his contract and try his luck as a free agent again.
Ray could also opt out, but with $50 million guaranteed over the next two years and a recent scar on his pitching elbow, the 32-year-old would have a harder time doing so. The Giants have been deliberate in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, never altering the schedule even as injuries piled up for others, and they are happy with where they are now.
Ray has made nine rehab appearances and went as many as five innings in his last outing. He has been consistently sharp and appears ready to be on the field. He could be in the rotation next Wednesday or Thursday in Los Angeles. Elbow and shoulder soreness kept Cobb from returning in the first half as expected, but he has felt strong the last few weeks and should be back within a round of Ray’s season debut.
The Giants expect to start August with Logan Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb in some order. Given the recent injury problems with three of them, they won’t make any assumptions about what the next two months might look like, but on paper, that’s two Cy Young winners, a 2023 All-Star and a 2024 All-Star.
If all goes well, Zaidi, Bob Melvin and Price will finally be able to give the others some breathing room. At the top of the list is another offseason addition, Jordan Hicks, who helped keep the Giants afloat before running out of gas. If the Giants make the playoffs, it will be largely because of Hicks’ ability to dominate early in the season and help hold the line when the rotation was reshuffled in June. He had a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings before the break, but now it’s time for the Giants to take a different path.
There has been no public indication of how the Giants will handle Hicks in the second half of the season, but he already has 17 1/3 innings more than his previous career high. Whether he is moved to the bullpen full-time, paired with another starter or simply gets an extended break before returning to the rotation, the Giants will have to find a way to limit Hicks’ workload.
“Bob and Bryan Price have obviously been very cautious with his innings and pitch counts in their individual outings and probably erred on the side of caution, which I think has put a little bit more pressure on our bullpen, but in the long run, we think it’s best for the team,” Zaidi said. “We’ve said since we signed Jordan (that) when we get to the point where we have enough options in the rotation and the inning count really increases, maybe we’ll have a conversation about the role.”
The Giants will also have to have that conversation about two young pitchers. Kyle Harrison’s ankle injury has given him some breathing room, but the 22-year-old is about three starts away from reaching his previous career high for innings pitched in a season. Hayden Birdsong, also 22, is 24 innings away from last year’s total.
The conversation has shifted to management, but in some ways, that’s what Zaidi expected. He wanted young pitchers to carry the load early before veterans took over in the second half of the season, and even as initial options like Keaton Winn and Mason Black faltered, Birdsong was ready to step in.
The rest of the gap was filled in by the bullpen, where the Giants now have the most concerns.
Tyler Rogers’ next appearance will be his 50th and he leads the major leagues in games pitched. Ryan Walker is tied for second and, given how Melvin handled Camilo Doval last Sunday, it’s possible Walker will have to take on a new role even as the Giants try to find him some extra rest. There are 29 pitchers in the National League who have made 40 appearances and Erik Miller and Taylor Rogers give the Giants four on that list. Doval’s next appearance will be his 40th.
Melvin pushed the group hard in the first half of the season, but he has spoken often in recent weeks about the need for a different plan for the second half. The workload is uncomfortable not only for the pitchers, but for a team that hopes to make the playoffs and doesn’t want to do so with a depleted bullpen.
In an ideal world, returning starters would allow players like Hicks or Harrison to bolster the bullpen, allowing relievers to get a little more rest. Hicks, a former closer, is an especially obvious choice to join the late-inning group as the Giants make their push.
The Giants have a 25% chance of playing in October, according to FanGraphs. The first half of the season has been uninspiring, but in a mediocre National League, they are just three games out of a playoff spot and 3 1/2 games out of the second wild-card spot. That’s ground they could make up quickly given that they have the easiest schedule in MLB after the break.
The Giants open their season at Coors Field Friday night against the last-place Colorado Rockies and welcome them to town the following weekend. In between, they play four games against an even more battered Los Angeles Dodgers, and the following month includes games against the A’s, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins.
The schedule opened just as they are about to begin using their intended rotation. Given some of the tough times of the last few months, the Giants really couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity.
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