The Rangers come out of the All-Star break with a three-game home series against the Baltimore Orioles, and the pitching matchups have been announced.
Tonight, Nathan Eovaldi will face Orioles ace Corbin Burnes. Saturday, Max Scherzer will face youngster Grayson Rodriguez. Sunday, Andrew Heaney will face Manny Machado trade winner Dean Kremer.
That means the Rangers will be using the same three pitchers in this series that faced the Houston Astros last weekend. Eovaldi and Scherzer are, I think, currently considered by the club to be their top two starting pitchers, and each of them can take five days of rest because of the break. In other circumstances, the Rangers might do something different to give each of them — Eovaldi in particular — a little more rest, but given where the Rangers are in the race, they don’t really have that luxury.
Heaney has been pitching well of late, and while, as we all know, he won’t necessarily go deep in games, he’s been a perfect five-and-out player. Heaney hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a game since April 25th – since his four-run, six-inning outing in a loss to Seattle that day, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA and a 3.50 FIP in 72 innings. I think we’d all agree that this will work.
This weekend, the Houston Astros will face the Seattle Mariners in Seattle, and the Rangers are currently five points behind Seattle and four points behind Houston. The positive side of this situation is that the Rangers would get a win over someone if they manage to win a few games in this series against the Orioles. The negative side is that they will likely be treading water, at best, against either of those two teams regardless of how they do against Baltimore.
It’s the start of a 13-game, 13-day stretch, with the 13th scheduled for Wednesday, July 31. Texas will play four games at home against the Chicago White Sox, then travel for three games in Toronto and three in St. Louis. The MLB trade deadline this year is July 30 at 5 p.m. Central Time, not July 31, so by the time the Rangers have another day off, the decision to buy, sell or hold will have been made.
No announcement has been made yet regarding the starters for Monday and Tuesday against the ChiSox, but it’s likely that it will be Jon Gray and Michael Lorenzen in some order. Gray hasn’t pitched since July 8, and it’s possible the Rangers will use him out of the bullpen Friday or Saturday, something they’ve done twice before this season. In that case, I’d imagine they’d use Lorenzen on Monday and Gray on Tuesday. Additionally, I suspect Dane Dunning will be activated this weekend – possibly today – and join the bullpen, with Daniel Robert returning to AAA Round Rock.
The backup pitcher is Tyler Mahle. The right-hander is rehabbing after returning from Tommy John surgery and has made three starts so far, throwing 19 pitches for Round Rock on July 2, 32 pitches for Frisco on July 9 and about 45 pitches for the ACL Rangers on July 15.
Mahle could be expected to start for Frisco or Round Rock on Saturday (which would be four days’ rest) or Sunday (with five days’ rest), with a goal of 60 pitches. Currently, though, the Rangers have Emiliano Teodo and Winston Santos starting Saturday and Sunday for Frisco, and Gerson Garabito and Jack Leiter starting Saturday and Sunday for Round Rock.
It’s possible Mahle starts one of those games, and the currently scheduled start will come after him. If so, I’m guessing he’ll pitch for Round Rock, since they’re playing at home and Frisco is playing in Wichita. Alternatively, he could start Saturday for the ACL team, or Monday for the ACL team (full-season teams don’t play on Mondays).
It could also be that Mahle has had a setback that we are not aware of and that his next departure has been postponed until next week.
Or, if we want to get crazy, the Rangers could decide that now is the time to get their hands dirty, that they have decisions to make between now and July 30 about what moves could be made, and that their best chance of winning includes having Tyler Mahle on the pitching staff, pitch limit or not.
In that case, they could opt to activate Mahle and start him Monday or Tuesday, complementing Gray or Lorenzen. One of those two players — probably Gray, but maybe Lorenzen — would be moved to the bullpen, and one of them currently in the pen would be the man on the sidelines (and unless someone goes on the injured list, it would most likely be Jonathan Hernandez, who is out of options). Or, theoretically, you could just move Gray and Lorenzen back a day each and briefly go with a six-man rotation to give everyone an extra day of rest before deciding who goes in the pen.
This would be a bold move. The viability of this pick will depend on how Mahle has played in his rehab starts, his command level, and how much rust he still needs to shake off. The bullpen would feature Jose Urena, Dane Dunning, and whichever of Lorenzen or Gray you choose (assuming you don’t go the six-man rotation route) as multi-inning options, giving you some wiggle room to handle multiple short outings from the starters in a short period of time.
The fact that he’s facing the hapless Chicago White Sox is potentially an argument in favor of that direction — he’d be facing the worst offense in baseball, not, say, the potent Orioles offense. On the other hand, you don’t want a pitcher who isn’t really ready to put you in a tough spot against that same hapless White Sox team, which would result in a loss because you put yourself in an own-base situation.
The question, to me, comes down to whether you think you have a better chance of maximizing your wins over the next 11 games with Tyler Mahle on the roster and in the rotation starting Monday or Tuesday and Jon Gray or Michael Lorenzen in the bullpen, or with Gray or Lorenzen in the rotation and whoever the odd man out is in the bullpen.
I don’t know the answer to that question. And I don’t think the Rangers are going to go that route and activate Mahle without another rehab start.
But if they did… if they did, I would understand.