The story below is a collaboration between MLB.com writers and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover baseball-related topics.
Which players are the X-factors of the second half?
With the All-Star break behind us and the playoff race about to heat up, we posed that question to six reporters (three from MLB.com and three from Yahoo Sports). Their task was to identify players who have the potential to leave their mark on the final two months of the 2024 season, not only by playing well, but also by helping their clubs make the playoffs or win the division title … or perhaps beyond.
Here are six players who could make the biggest impact with their late-season performances. (All statistics below are for Monday’s games.)
The Mariners held a 10-game lead in the American League West heading into the June 19 game, but they’re now neck and neck with the Astros, who are looking to win the division title for the seventh time in the last eight seasons. With one of the least prolific offenses in the game, the M’s are in desperate need of a hitter and could very well add one at the trade deadline. That said, getting a good finish from J-Rod once he returns from a sprained right ankle could be as impactful as any trade.
Rodriguez entered the All-Star break with just 10 homers and a .690 OPS in 97 games, but we know how good he can be when he’s in the right spot. The youngster was one of the best players in baseball last year, finishing fourth in AL MVP voting after producing 32 homers, 37 steals and an .818 OPS in his age-22 season. He was starting to return to form before his injury, hitting .439/.500/.805 with four homers in 13 games from July 3-20. A rejuvenated Rodriguez could give Seattle the offensive boost it needs to win its first AL West title since 2001, assuming he doesn’t spend long on the injured list.
— Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com)
Of course, that assumes the White Sox, who have the worst record in MLB, choose to trade Crochet, who won’t be a free agent until 2026. Given the state of their organization, it’s reasonable to assume the Sox won’t be competitive in that window. That makes a trade for the 25-year-old All-Star lefty a relatively likely proposition at the next deadline. And while Crochet’s workload is cause for concern — he’s already doubled his previous career high in innings — he’s an impactful, game-changing arm no matter how he’s deployed.
Coming into the season opener against the Rangers, Crochet had pitched 107 1/3 innings with a 3.02 ERA so far. His stats under the hood and his outlook are even more favorable. He is, at this point, one of the most untouchable pitchers in the league. Whichever team signs the fast-moving lefty will immediately add the league’s strikeout leader, someone who would start Game 1 of a playoff series for a number of contending teams. That’s what I call an X-factor.
–Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)
When Lewis is healthy, he is one of the best baseball players on the planet. Over his first 94 career games, Lewis has hit 27 homers, is batting .303/.361/.584 and has posted a 158 OPS+ that trails only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto (minimum 350 plate appearances) since his rookie season in 2022.
Staying healthy is key, though. Lewis tore the ACL in his right knee after 12 MLB games (his second time doing so as a professional) and has dealt with a variety of health issues since returning to the major leagues last May. Lewis is currently on injured reserve with a right adductor strain, but he is expected to return before the end of the month.
If Lewis can stay healthy through the rest of the year, it would bode well for a Twins team that has little room to improve in the AL wild-card race. It’s also not inconceivable that a healthy Lewis could spark a Twins run to a division title, as they’ve already gained significant ground on the first-place Guardians, going from nine points on June 25 to just four points on Tuesday.
— Brent Maguire (MLB.com)
There may be no playoff contender with as much of a chance to be in the starting rotation as the Dodgers. And that makes Glasnow as valuable as any starter in baseball. Before his recent bout with lower back tightness that sent him to the injured list, Glasnow had been everything the Dodgers hoped he would be in his first season in Los Angeles, dominating at the top of the rotation.
The problem is, what happens behind him is very unclear. While Gavin Stone has been electric, he and Glasnow are the only certainties for the Dodgers at this point. It’s unclear if or when Yoshinobu Yamamoto will return, and with Bobby Miller sent down to Triple-A and Clayton Kershaw just making his season debut after rehabbing from shoulder surgery, this is far from a full rotation.
Glasnow will return from the injured list Wednesday against the Giants, and his ability to stay healthy in the second half will be imperative if the Dodgers hope to be the team we expect them to be in October.
–Russ Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)
The Mets have been waiting all season for Senga, and he’s finally here, just in time for their playoff push. (The right-hander could make his 2024 debut as early as Friday.) They’ve somehow managed to climb into playoff position to finish the first half without Senga. They’ve already gotten boosts from Grimace and Jose Iglasias. If anything can propel them to a playoff spot now, it’s getting their ace back for the final stretch.
Remember that Senga is a Cy Young-caliber arm. Remember that the ghost fork is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball. Remember that Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and 208 strikeouts in his first season facing major league hitters — and finished the season on a 14-start stretch over the last three months where he went 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 101 strikeouts and a 10.7/9 strikeout rate. For the Mets, it’s a classic “biggest addition comes from within” situation. Considering the deadlock in the National League wild-card race, Senga is the type of player who could be the difference between the Mets making the playoffs or not.
Just two years ago, Machado finished second in the National League MVP rankings and helped the Padres get within a few wins of the World Series. Since then, he’s played through several injuries that have reduced his overall production from elite to very good, with only occasional appearances from the MVP-candidate version of Machado.
Now in the thick of the National League wild-card race, the Padres have been fueled so far by their surprisingly excellent outfield, thanks to the resurgence of Fernando Tatis Jr., the immediate success of 21-year-old rookie Jackson Merrill and the surprising breakthrough of veteran Jurickson Profar. The infield, meanwhile, has been less promising, with Xander Bogaerts also significantly hampered by injuries and Ha-Seong Kim not as productive at the plate as he was a year ago.
Machado, meanwhile, has started to look more like himself recently, opening the door for what could be a crucial final few months for the veteran third baseman if San Diego is to return in October. In 25 games since his OPS dropped to .662 on June 18, Machado is hitting .293/.336/.535 with seven homers, which is a much better reflection of the type of hitter we saw from 2020-22. Maintaining that excellent form from Machado down the stretch would go a long way toward solidifying San Diego’s status in the National League playoff race.
–Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)