The phrase that’s been circulating a lot in the gaming industry right now is “Surviving until 2025.”
The hope, or even expectation, is that next year will see the games industry rebound after two years of declining sales and mass layoffs.
There are several reasons for this expectation. First, the prospect of continued economic recovery and lower inflation should translate into increased consumer spending and investment. Second, the launch of a new Nintendo console should drive increased interest and sales of new games.
And thirdly… Grand Theft Auto 6.
Make no mistake, the upcoming GTA will be a milestone for video games. If all goes well, it should prove to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time. It will shine a spotlight on the industry (for better or worse), boost retail sales, increase traffic for gaming media, and also help evolve hardware.
Of course, this won’t benefit everyone. For game publishers and developers not named Rockstar, GTA 6 isn’t going to do them any favors. In fact, any game that dares to release within Grand Theft Auto’s six-week radius does so at its own peril. In the meantime, live service games should brace themselves for a steep decline in average playtime.
Still, one thing some in the industry are hoping for with GTA 6 is that it will help overcome “the PS4 problem.”
We’ve talked a lot about the decline of the games console market, pointing out the slightly slower pace of console sales this generation compared to the last. Yet things look rosier, particularly for PlayStation, when you start to factor in other metrics.
“We expect Rockstar to continue to operate GTA Online for the foreseeable future, but the user base will be split after the launch of GTA 6. Rockstar has never faced this kind of transition challenge.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, Amps Analysis
For example, PS5 revenue is significantly higher than PS4 revenue. But in terms of overall engaged users, the numbers look pretty good… it’s just that a lot of those engaged users are still playing on PS4.
Whether this is a problem or not is subjective. Back in May, Sony revealed that 50% of its audience was still playing on its old machine, even as the PS5 approached its fourth anniversary of its launch. It’s not uncommon for older machines to continue to play for years after their replacements arrive, but things are more significant this time around, partly due to the popularity of live service titles.
Newzoo’s latest playtime chart shows that the most-played PlayStation games over the past two months were Fortnite, Call of Duty, EA Sports FC 24, GTA 5, Roblox, Minecraft, Rocket League, XDefiant, Rainbow Six: Siege, and NBA 2K24.
Of these games, only Ubisoft’s XDefiant (released in May) isn’t available on PS4. Minecraft is set to release a native version for PS5 (PS5 players have only been able to download the PS4 version so far). Meanwhile, market analysts Ampere say that of GTA Online’s more than 20 million active users, the most active platform for the game is “by far” the PS4.
In other words, almost all of the biggest games on PlayStation currently run on PS4 (and run well), reducing the need from a consumer perspective to upgrade their hardware, especially in times of economic instability and high costs of living.
Of course, this also presents an opportunity. PlayStation remains optimistic that the PS5 will be a bigger platform than the PS4 because it knows that at some point, a large portion of that PS4 base will want to upgrade, especially when their hardware starts to age, slow down, or break down. Of course, Sony will have to be careful to keep those players on PlayStation, especially with Xbox improving its release slate, Nintendo launching new hardware, PC gaming continuing to do well, and even mobile and tablets showing their high-end gaming potential. But, at the end of the day, these are PlayStation customers right now, so that’s Sony’s fan base to lose.
This is where I think Grand Theft Auto could play an important role for all game companies. Right now, developers are caught between offering the latest hardware and maintaining support for the old one. And that’s definitely a problem that Rockstar is going to have to deal with.
“By the time GTA 6 launches, more GTA Online players will have migrated to the latest consoles,” said Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere’s Chief Games Analyst. “However, it is likely that a significant portion of players will continue to use legacy devices and PCs. Ampere therefore expects Rockstar to continue to operate GTA Online for the foreseeable future, but this will mean maintaining multiple communities as the user base will be split after GTA 6 launches.
“Rockstar has never faced this kind of transition challenge before, even though parent company Take-Two has deep expertise in live sports franchises, which regularly shift audiences to new annual releases. The continued commercial importance of the GTA franchise leaves little room for error in transitioning and supporting its loyal audience as the new game launches.”
But if there’s one game that could tempt players to upgrade, it’s Grand Theft Auto. And if Sony and Microsoft are planning to release upgraded, portable versions of their latest machines, as reports suggest, then 2025 could prove to be a very important year for the future of the gaming console, even before you factor in Nintendo.
Of course, the situation raises a larger question… what might the PlayStation 6 look like? In many ways, the Xbox Series S and X were continuations of the Xbox One. Faster, more powerful, but with the same interface, the same controllers, and all its first-party games were cross-generational. In contrast, Sony said it “believes in generations” and introduced the PS5 with a new UI, a new controller, new accessories, and (at least some) PS5-exclusive games.
With gamers taking five years (or more) to transition from one generation to the next, and AAA games taking four or five years to make, does the seven-year generational cycle still work today? Unless Sony’s engineers and hardware teams can create a product that makes a significant difference in the way games look and play, I’m not convinced it does.
That’s the problem to solve tomorrow. For now, PlayStation needs to get the remaining fans to ditch their DualShocks and get a DualSense instead. It’s going to take something special to do that, and all eyes are on Grand Theft Auto 6.