Yesterday afternoon, the Cubs gave us all a surprise when they traded Christopher Morel and a few intriguing prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for third baseman Isaac Paredes.
Brett has already analyzed the trade itself, which of course could be even more different depending on the next 30 hours. And that includes what we expect from him and the Cubs in the years to come. But we still need to talk about Isaac Paredes the player in a more empty context. And that’s what we’re going to do here, in bullet-style fashion, as we do.
Meet Isaac Paredes
So, first of all, a little silly thing: his first name is apparently pronounced “E-sock” and not “eye-sic”. Maybe everyone already knew that. I just realized it, and I guess I’m not the only one.
Overall, Isaac Paredes has been a very good hitter this season (once again), earning his first All-Star appearance by hitting .245/.357/.435 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs and 55 RBI. Compared to other Cubs hitters, that performance would put him in a tie for the team’s best hitter with Seiya Suzuki (also a 131 wRC+). And with some pretty solid defense at third base, he’s worth 3.0 WAR overall, leading to this “fun” little thought experiment via Brett:
It does NOT work that way, but I just want to note it for fun: Isaac Paredes is worth 3.0 WAR so far this year, Christopher Morel is -0.1. If the Cubs had Paredes all the time instead of Morel and turned 3 losses into wins, they would be ONE game OVER .500. — Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) July 29, 2024
And for what it’s worth, this isn’t the first time he’s hit this well. Isaac Paredes hit .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) last season, en route to a 4.3 WAR campaign. And while he was already a guy who walked (10.2%) and avoided strikeouts (18.2%) last year, he’s improved on both counts this season: 12.1 BB%, 15.9 K%. His 0.76 BB/K ratio is fifth-best in MLB.
But there are at least three things to note right now. First, he’s a bit of a dip in form right now, with just three hits in his last 11 games and just a 103 wRC+ since June 1 (199 PAs): .187/.322/.355. You could take the .194 BABIP over that span as a sign of positive things to come, but the weak-contact globules that define his entire approach are even more apparent over that span: 84.6 MPH EV, 4.4 barrel%, 22.2 hard%. You can’t ignore that.
Second, the home-away spreads (with Tampa Bay) have been pretty extreme:
Road: .232/.325/.414/109 wRC+, .182 ISO, .249 BABIP, 10.5% BB, 18.3% K (90 1B, 28 2B, 0 3B, 29 HR) (ten more games )
And this ties directly into the third point, which is that his traction-based, lower-contact approach seemed to be a particularly good fit at Tropicana Field:
And Wrigley Field might be a similar extreme in the opposite direction:
I *think* this is a joke, but I’ll just say to anyone who says this without joking: Wrigley’s outfields are weird, wonderful, and classic and should never be touched.
But hey, if you want to extend the baskets a few feet… https://t.co/Ytl4eyBcX1— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) July 28, 2024
According to Statcast, Isaac Paredes’ expected home runs per stadium are just 11 at Wrigley Field, which is lower than almost any other stadium.
Baltimore: 6 Miami: 9 Detroit: 10 Saint-Louis: 10 Wrigley Field: 11 — Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) July 28, 2024
That said, it’s important to remember that only half of the Cubs’ games are played at Wrigley Field. And just because a batted ball wouldn’t necessarily be a home run at Wrigley doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a hit (even a hit for extra bases).
Some additional information on the offensive profile via Keith Law (The Athletic):
Paredes hits the ball pretty hard for a teenager when he was in the Cubs and then Tigers systems, but the quality of the impact has never improved even as he’s gotten older, and he rates pretty poorly by any measure of hit-ball quality. Instead, he puts the ball in the air a lot, with a ground-ball rate of less than 29 percent, and he gets the ball out as soon as possible, so 12 of his 16 home runs have gone to the left-field corner and none of them have gone straight or to the opposite field. And he doesn’t miss a lot of balls or strike out a lot at all, so he puts a lot of balls in play overall, which makes up for the average quality of contact a bit.
In terms of lefty/righty distribution (excluding his time with the Rays), Isaac Paredes is traditional, hitting lefties better (139 wRC+) than righties (126 wRC+). But there’s nothing to worry about. Overall, as you can see, he hits everyone pretty well.
He’s also been among the best players in baseball in contact with the ball over the last 2.5 seasons, with a 91% zone contact rate, which ranks 26th. Nico Hoerner, for reference, is in the top five over the same span with a 94.3% mark. Similarly, Paredes has a 7.1% whiff rate since joining the Rays, which ranks among the top 25 in MLB.
In many ways, Christopher Morel and Isaac Paredes are polar opposites on offense. Morel has all the loud tools and upside and the bright red sliders on his Statcast page…but none of the results to back it up. And Paredes has great results but doesn’t really make any loud contact at all. It’s not unlike the gamble the Cubs took on Cody Bellinger, who had success last season despite not making hard contact. Like Bellinger, Paredes’ approach seems to be more focused and strategic (rather than just an inability to make hard contact), but it’s certainly a risk. As we saw with Bellinger, sometimes that means the SLG can go away.
Okay, let’s get the offensive part out of the way. Contractually, 25-year-old Isaac Paredes is under control for the remainder of this season and then through 2027 via arbitration (3.5 years total with the Cubs). Because he was a Super-2 player, he was already eligible for arbitration this year, earning $3.4 million via arbitration from the Rays. And with enough counting stats already under his belt, he’s due for another nice raise this winter. By the end of this contract, he’ll likely have made a lot of money. So control is nice, and it won’t be free agent dollars. But it won’t be cheap. That’s partly (if not mostly) why the Rays traded him in the first place.
And then there’s the defense. Isaac Paredes should be a big step up defensively at third base from Christopher Morel, but he’s not a Gold Glove at that level either. Advanced defensive stats liked him pretty well in 2022 (5 DRS, 2.6 DEF), but weren’t as positive last year (2 DRS, 1.4 DEF) and this year (0 DRS, 2.4 DEF). But it’s still positive overall and light years away from Christopher Morel (-5 DRS, -7.1 DEF). There’s no doubt he’s a legitimate third baseman, I just wanted to set the boundaries of expectations for a “good but not great” glove.
As for the trade itself and how people are reacting to it, The Athletic has a good rundown. Andy McCullough, Tyler Kepner, and Sam Blum each evaluated the deal and responded with a piece. Two of the three gave the Cubs the edge in the deal, while the third said the deal was a tie.
