Who will be the number 1 pick in the draft? Our experts predict the odds


Odds on the first overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},{“__typename”:”DynamicInclude”,”type”:”dynamicinclude”,”body”:”**More on Caglianone**: \n• No. 3 in Top 150 Draft \n• Caglianone on MLB Pipeline Podcast \n• Caglianone Matches NCAA Record \n• Get to Know Jac Caglianone”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia (No. 4)** \nCallis 27% | Mayo 25% \nCallis: \”I don’t think there’s a huge difference between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana as players. I think Bazzana has a little more power. I think Wetherholt has more speed and athleticism, more of a chance to play shortstop, but I don’t really think he’s a shortstop. … Of all the guys we talked about, JJ Wetherholt is the one you could save the most money on.\””,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”OEmbed”,”html”:”

JJ Wetherholt with another no-doubter, giving him his first college multihomer game!

More on the No. 8 overall draft prospect who won the Division I hitter award last year: https://t.co/JIyNXd1EWf

(🎥: @WVUBaseball)pic.twitter.com/6huGRilLTZ

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 18, 2024

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Dirty.

Chase Burns, the fifth overall prospect in the MLB draft, is playing in regional leagues.

🎥: @WakeBaseball

pic.twitter.com/pobgLWHEto

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 1, 2024

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01:00 UTC

With the MLB Draft Combine behind us, the clock is ticking until the Guardians are ready to take the No. 1 overall pick on Sunday. The 2024 Draft will be broadcast live from Fort Worth, Texas, with a pregame show at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network and ESPN (as well as on MLB.TV, MLB.com and the MLB app) and the draft at 7 p.m. ET. Each pick from Day 2 (Monday) and Day 3 (Tuesday) can be seen starting at 2 p.m. ET both days on MLB.TV, MLB.com and the MLB app.

College prospects are at the heart of the issue when it comes to who will be the first off the board. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo discussed the topic in more detail on the latest MLB Pipeline podcast.

Although Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana (the top prospect in the MLB draft) and Georgia’s Charlie Condon (the second) traded their status as the top draft prospect before the event, both continued to gain ground.

Condon won the 2024 Golden Spikes Award ahead of fellow top-tier players Bazzana and Arkansas left-hander Hagan Smith (No. 5). But if there’s a pitcher who should be selected first overall, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns (No. 6) might have the edge.

Here are our experts’ best guesses regarding the odds for each player with a real chance of being selected No. 1 overall:

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Callis 38% | Mayonnaise 40%
Callis: “I think he fits the mold better than other players. I think he has some negotiating power because I don’t think he’s going to go to No. 4 if he’s not going to No. 1.”

Mayo: “I still think he’s the favorite to be No. 1. I think he’s the kind of player the Guardians like, and I think when the time comes they’ll find the right combination of the player they like and the money they hope to spend on that pick.”

Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
Callis 26% | Mayonnaise 23%
Callis: “First of all, I think he’s the best player in the draft, and he would make a lot of sense for the Guardians. I think they should take him first. They have so much money that they should just take the best player. And it’s weird because you don’t hear his name mentioned very often. … Now I’m starting to think they’re more into him than the lack of noise indicates.”

Mayo: “I could easily imagine that this is the kind of thing that you don’t hear a lot about, and they’re going to go get him. And it’s not like they’re putting other names on the table to help him in his negotiations or anything like that.”

Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Callis 8% | Mayonnaise 11%
Callis: “I don’t think it’s impossible. I think it’s possible that he wants to be No. 1. I think he might be more open to a deal than Charlie Condon, for example, and that power would be well-regarded in Cleveland. I don’t really think that’s going to happen in the end.”

JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
Callis 27% | Mayonnaise 25%
Callis: “I don’t think there’s a huge difference between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana as players. I think Bazzana has a little more power. I think Wetherholt has more speed and athleticism, more of a chance to play shortstop, but I don’t really think he’s a shortstop. … Of all the players we’ve talked about, JJ Wetherholt is the one that could save the most money.”

The rest of the field: Hagen Smith, left-handed pitcher, Arkansas (No. 5), Chase Burns, right-handed pitcher, Wake Forest (No. 6), Konnor Griffin, offensive pitcher/end, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) (No. 9)
Callis 1% | Mayonnaise 1%
Mayo: “I came very close to leaving nothing on the table here for the pitch because I really don’t see any scenario where it wouldn’t be one of those four players.”





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