The box office podium
Top 3 Movies at Domestic Box Office Predictions | July 12 – 14, 2024
Week 28 | July 12 – 14, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Price Ranges | Weekend 28, 2024: $100M – $130M
1. Despicable Me 4
Universal/Illumination | Week 2
Weekend Price Range: $32-38 Million
The Boxoffice Company Schedule Dashboard Market Share: 24%
Benefits
- Universal’s animated silo Illumination has once again won another award with $4.88 billion in revenue Despicable Me/Minions franchise like Despicable Me 4 The film grossed $75 million over three days and $122.6 million over five days over the Fourth of July weekend. We’re expecting a 50%+ drop in the second half, but that suits the exhibitors and the studio just fine, with the latter spending just $100 million on the film while reaping the benefits of box office and merchandising. AMC generated huge revenue from merchandise (including a $30 bucket of Minion popcorn) and had the third-highest food and beverage sales for a Wednesday in the company’s 104-year history.
- From the big guns coming in July –Tornadoes And Deadpool and Wolverine—both targeting different audiences, Illumination should own the family demo for the rest of the summer, with Inside Out 2 still subletting the attic, so to speak. The next big family event movie is Sony’s August 2 release Harold and the Purple Pencilfrom which our long-term forecasts do not expect any notable performance.
The inconvenients
While previous films in the Gru/Minions universe have held up well to negative reviews, the series’ lowest score of 53% could indicate a sixth film in a cycle that may struggle to maintain its momentum due to total franchise fatigue. A 90% audience score and an “A” CinemaScore hopefully suggest that audiences are still enjoying it. Let’s take a look at the domestic second weekends of previous entries…
- Minions (2015) – $49.2 million (-57%)
- Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) – $46.1 million (-57%)
- Despicable Me 2 (2013) – $43.8 million (-48%)
- Despicable Me 3 (2017) – $33.5 million (-54%)
- Despicable Me (2010) – $32.8 million (-42%)
Our panel’s prediction range places the second image of the new one at the lower end of recent entries, which is appropriate since Despicable Me 4 had the franchise’s fourth-lowest opening weekend. There’s no doubt that the “Minions” brand of films has done better than the “Despicable Me” titles, and that could be partly at play here. It’s possible that the film will do better, but this movie just won’t make as much money Upside down This happened in June. But it’s not a franchise killer by any means.
2. Inside Out 2
Disney/Pixar | Week 5
Weekend Price Range: $18 million to $22 million
The Boxoffice Company Showtime Dashboard Market Share: 14%
Benefits
- It’s officially the summer of Inside Out 2. Pixar’s blockbuster film will perform better in its fifth week than most blockbuster debuts released earlier in the year. Its momentum is unstoppable at this point, and in the coming days it will be in the lead. The Incredibles 2‘s place as the world’s No. 1 Pixar title ($1.24 billion). Upside down The sequel’s worldwide total currently stands (as of Monday’s gross) at $1,234,148,505, just $8.6 million shy of the record. That means that by this weekend, we’ll be looking past studio records and toward the status of all-time animated film. It’ll surely crush the first one. Frozen ($1.27 billion) by Sunday, all that remains is to eliminate The Super Mario Bros. movie. ($1.36 billion) and Frozen II ($1.45 billion) to reach the top of this peak.
The inconvenients
- There aren’t many negatives, with records broken and Oscar rumors. The gap will narrow Despicable Me 4but there’s almost no chance of retaking the top spot at the weekend box office from Illumination, unless there’s an unforeseen catastrophic drop for Gru and the Minions.
- While the global animated title is in sight, it’s a riskier proposition domestically. With its current budget of $537.9 million, Inside Out 2 will probably overtake the kart Super MarioDomestic revenue of $574.9 million, but will it run out of steam before it can go out? The Incredibles 2$608.5 million?
- And just for good measure, Inside Out 2 currently sits at #17 and #25 on the all-time domestic and international charts. The family film it follows on these criteria is last year’s film Barbie at No. 11 and No. 14 ($636.2 million) respectively, and will likely fail to reach either goal due to Upside down Ultimately, it’s still a kids’ brand rather than an all-ages comedy like Barbie was.
Wildcard: Long legs
Neon | NEW
Price range for the weekend: $15 million to $20 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedule Dashboard Market Share: 8%
Benefits
- This weekend, the race for 3rd place looks tight with two unconventional summer releases: the horror film Long legs and romantic comedy Fly me to the moon— compete for money from older teenagers and adults. First, Long legswritten and directed by actor turned filmmaker Osgood Perkins (son of Psycho icon Anthony Perkins). The following grew quickly for this Thesilenceofthelambs-a thriller-type thriller that follows an FBI agent (Maika Monroe) tracking the titular serial killer (Nicolas Cage), perhaps due to exceptional buzz (RT is currently at 94%) as well as a recent Cage renaissance.
The inconvenients
- Although Cage has bounced back from his direct-to-video slump with a few critical darlings in recent years, none have cracked the box office. Oddball films like Dream scenario ($5.7 million), Renfield ($17.2 million) and The unbearable weight of a colossal talent ($20.3 million) all capitalized on the actor’s iconic personality, but failed to launch in theaters.
- Neon’s gamble to promote this project by relying on genre scares rather than star power will make it an exciting proposition. Horror has been on a downturn of late, with the normally reliable genre generating just $331,217,504 million this year as audiences turn back to dramas and comedies. Only franchises like A quiet place And The foreigners had no impact, and serial killer stories became primarily the domain of digital television and streaming. Long legs Star Monroe’s 2022 serial killer movie Observer grossed a meager $1.9 million at the specialty box office before airing on Hulu. Even a stalwart horror series like Conspiracy is apparently coming to an end. That said, if an original indie game like this can do better, that’s all it takes to reinvigorate the genre for studios and fans alike.
Wildcard: Fly Me to the Moon
Sony/Apple | NEW
Weekend Price Range: $12 million to $17 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedule Dashboard Market Share: 9%
Benefits
- With A24 MaXXXine and Angel Studios The Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot Doing average business, a big-budget, star-studded dramedy might be just what the doctor ordered for July’s counter-programming. Apple seems to be proud to greenlight big swings (Napoleon, For Argy) that are reminiscent of the director- and star-driven eras of the 90s, and Fly me to the moon This is pretty much what you’d expect from a movie. Originally slated to premiere directly on AppleTV+, the $100 million-budget romantic comedy has been well-received enough to warrant a theatrical release. Its critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes currently sits at 71%, which is decent, but not what a movie like this needs to succeed in the marketplace.
The inconvenients
- This is Greg Berlanti’s first theatrical release since With love, Simon in 2018 ($40.8M domestic/$66.7M worldwide). While the famed television writer/producer (The CW’s Arrowverse, Riverdale) brings a very mainstream sensibility to the material, Apollo 11’s 1960s setting may have little appeal beyond baby boomers. The apparent comparison here might be like the success of the 2016 space race Hidden Figures ($169.6M U.S./$229.6M worldwide), but the film tapped into an element of progressive cultural recuperation. Fly me to the moon is as undiverse/conventional as it gets, feeling like it could have been made in the ’60s with James Garner and Doris Day in the lead roles. The last time a studio film tried to channel that retro ’60s rom-com energy was in 2003. I’m done with loveSpace movies that work tend to be thrillers like Apollo 13, Space Cowboys, Gravityor the most recent movie with Brad Pitt, Ad Astra. Adding a romantic element gives us whiffs of the Natalie Portman/Jon Hamm misfire of 2019. Lucy in the sky ($319,976,000 domestically), which was also directed by a television expert (Fargo(Noah Hawley). The biopic on Neil Armstrong, with a serious tone First man ($44.9M domestic/$105.5M worldwide) is about the closest comparison we can think of and wouldn’t be the kind of performance Apple or Sony probably want from Fly me to the moon.
- Stars Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson seem like a dream team, but their recent output has been mixed. Tatum’s originals Dog ($61.7 million) and The Lost City ($105.3M) did well for the originals, but the third installment Magic Mike’s Last Dance was a critical and box office failure. Johansson has done very well as part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but her solo effort Black Widow underperformed during its COVID-era release, and its last major non-MCU mainline effort was the 2017 comedy Hard night ($22.1 million).