• Will Levis stands out for its ADP and its location: Levis is one of the few young quarterbacks who is guaranteed a starting job in Week 1 and isn’t ranked in the top 120 in ADP.
• A former top-10 fantasy quarterback returns: Daniel Jones He missed much of the 2024 season due to injury, but he was a top-10 fantasy QB in 2022 and has a better group of wide receivers to throw to this season.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: To use PFF Fantasy Football Draft Simulator to create real live draft simulations to prepare you for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
All three of these fantasy football players have an ADP above 120 according to the committees’ consensus, but I have them ranked significantly higher.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, July 11
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 14.03; according to ADP consensus)
Levis took over as the Titans’ starting quarterback in Week 8 of last season. He missed all but 13 snaps over the final three weeks of the season, but he was the QB16 from Week 8 through Week 15. The Titans ran the ball at a top-10 pace over that eight-week span.
A big change for Levis this season is that Brian Callahan will be his new head coach. Callahan spent the last five seasons as Cincinnati Bengals‘ offensive coordinator, where the team ranked in the top five in passing rate. So Levis’ fantasy value should increase this year simply by throwing more passes.
The Titans’ signal-caller also saw significant improvements at wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins was his favorite target last year, but outside of Hopkins he faced a rotation of Nick-Westbrook Ikhine, Chris Moore, Treylon Burks And Kyle PhilipsThose four receivers are expected to be fourth on the depth chart at best this season.
This off-season, Calvin Ridley signed a massive contract to play alongside Hopkins, while Tyler Boyd followed Callahan from Cincinnati to play in the slot.
It’s worth noting that it’s harder to find a surprise quarterback this year than in previous years. Jayden Daniels And Caleb Williams The ADPs are already in the top 120, along with 15 other quarterbacks. Of the top 10 quarterbacks who qualify for sleeper tag status for this article, eight are 29 or older and have little to no running back potential. Levis should be the one to get the most out of this group of quarterbacks.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (ADP: 16.03)
Jones finished as QB9 in 2022, largely due to his running ability. His 708 rushing yards ranked fifth at the position, while his seven rushing touchdowns tied him for third.
He had a below-average big-time throw rate and an above-average turnaround-worthy throw rate, but his volume in the run and pass game was enough to propel him into the top 10. Jones didn’t get off to a great start to 2023 before dealing with injuries that decimated the rest of his season.
There’s reason to believe Jones could match his 2022 fantasy production this season. The receivers he’ll have at his disposal are much better than they were at the start of last year.
Kill Dariustonne, Parris Campbell And Isaiah Hodgins were the top three receivers when Jones was healthy last season. This year, Jones has Malik Nabers as the new head receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson is healthy and should be his second best option. Jalin Hyatt He didn’t get much playing time while Jones was healthy last year, but he should be in the mix as well.
The Giants also generally ran the ball more than most teams when they had a lead, and they also ran more than most when they were playing from behind. This was largely because they had Saquon Barkley. NOW, Devin Singletary is in the back.
This season, it’s clear the Giants will put things in Jones’ hands to determine if he can be the future at the position.
That means the former first-round pick should get more opportunities and better efficiency. The big concern is that a neck injury sidelined him early last season, but a torn ACL kept him out for the rest of the campaign. The torn ACL could prevent Jones from running nearly as much as he has in previous seasons, which could hurt his fantasy value more than the new receivers help.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots (ADP: 20.04)
Last season, in both the redraft and rookie drafts, Bryce Young And Anthony Richardson had significantly higher ADPs than CJ Stroud. It was because Young was the first overall pick in what we thought was a better situation, while Richardson had the rushing advantage.
Caleb Williams And Jayden Daniels have relatively high ADPs this year, while Drake Maye is significantly lower.
While it makes sense to pick Williams and Daniels early, there’s at least a chance Maye has the best season of the three — similar to Stroud’s last season. Maye was QB3 on our main board, and our draft guide concluded that Maye “has all the talent tools you want to bet on as a franchise QB.”
Many of Maye’s concerns about ADP revolve around his landing spot with the New England Patriots, but the team has undergone a lot of changes, which could lead to the offense playing much more better.
Alex Van Pelt is the new offensive coordinator. The former quarterback was the team’s last offensive coordinator. The Cleveland Browns, Or Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett And Joe Flacco all managed to get passing grades in the 70s. Before working for the Browns, he was a quarterback coach for players such as Aaron Rodgers And Andy Dalton.
The Patriots had several receivers come and go last year, but Demario Douglas stood out from the group with a PFF grade of 74.4. All other players on the roster are expected to be backups or off the roster, as the team selected Ja’Lynn Polk and signed a free agent KJ Osborn, and both are expected to start. The team also added Austin Hooper at the tight end and Antonio Gibson at the back, and both are good receivers.
There is a good chance Jacoby Brissett will start the season, but Maye can be expected to become the starter sooner rather than later. No one picks a surprise quarterback because they expect him to be a starter. Surprise quarterbacks are players who could potentially be fantastic starters in the second half of the season.