The next steps in Formula 1’s wildly unpredictable driver market following confirmation of Kevin Magnussen’s parting ways with Haas are likely to be completed before the summer break – but the most significant unresolved issues could stretch into August or even beyond.
Haas are now considered the next in line to complete their driver line-up for 2025, with outgoing Alpine driver Esteban Ocon widely expected to join Ferrari protégé Ollie Bearman next season.
Some reports had even suggested that Ocon’s departure could be announced this week, but Magnussen’s departure appears to be the only news to come out of Haas so far. A confirmation of Ocon’s contract could still come before the summer break between the back-to-back races in Hungary and Belgium.
Several others involved in this ride were also hoping to secure their futures at this stage, but the impasse largely controlled by Carlos Sainz means several teams and drivers remain in the dark.
Add to that the prospect of a race winner coming on the market and a young driver being taken off the market if Red Bull make a radical mid-season change by replacing Sergio Perez with Liam Lawson, and it becomes an even more complicated sequence of events to sort out.
PEREZ’S CHOICE AT RED BULL
Perez has the last two races before the summer break to convince Red Bull that he will not torpedo their constructors’ championship prospects this season.
A string of dreadful performances, including a maximum of seventh place in the last six races and just three points scored in that period, leaves Perez 137 points behind Max Verstappen in the championship at a time when McLaren and Mercedes are putting more pressure on Red Bull than they have ever faced in the rules era.
This is rumoured to leave Perez vulnerable to a performance clause in his contract that was added when he signed his new one-plus-one deal earlier this year, allowing Red Bull to terminate his contract if he is more than 100 points behind Verstappen at the break.
Being able to do it and choosing to do it are two different things, and Perez retains some control. But Red Bull is considering its options and Lawson’s test in the 2024 car last week, albeit limited because it was a “filming day”, serves as evidence of its intentions if Perez is not up to the task.
If Perez were to be dropped, a hugely experienced, race-winning driver would suddenly be on the market. Whatever form he plays at Red Bull, he will inevitably appeal to teams like Audi, Alpine and Williams – and he certainly wouldn’t be the first to flourish elsewhere after a difficult time against Verstappen.
His availability would pose a significant obstacle in the negotiations these teams have underway, as Perez could potentially beat out someone like Valtteri Bottas for a seat somewhere in the lower midfield.
RED BULL OR AUDI FOR LAWSON?
A simple decision by Red Bull to part ways with Perez and promote Lawson would allow the 21-year-old to drive F1’s dominant car in the new rules era. It’s an opportunity worth grabbing.
And that would satisfy Red Bull’s need to find him a seat in F1 before September, or else let him become a free agent for 2025.
Should that But if that were to happen, Lawson would then have an interesting alternative: Audi.
Contacts have been made between Sauber/Audi representatives and Lawson’s camp as he is seen as a serious back-up option should long-term target Sainz join another team, as has appeared increasingly likely in recent months.
It’s a good position for Lawson to be in, although, with all due respect, it says a lot about the Audi project that he’s the kind of driver who’s so seriously involved in the mix.
For now, Lawson appears to have the best chance of making the grid. Formula 2 champion Theo Pourchaire is another option for Sauber, who have backed him for several years, but who seems more of a last resort option.
And at Alpine, current replacement Jack Doohan’s chances appear to hinge on Sainz and Bottas going elsewhere.
So what about SAINZ?
Sainz has been the cork in the bottle for months, as he has taken his time deciding his next move since learning early in 2024 that he would lose his Ferrari seat to Lewis Hamilton.
The changes in the driver market since then may justify Sainz’s patience. Some seats are disappearing, but it may still be possible to get the best of them all, more than anyone thought.
After Williams edged Audi out in the race to sign Sainz, Alpine once again emerged as a credible contender (at least in the eyes of Sainz’s camp). But then came words of encouragement from Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, and the implication that 17-year-old F2 rookie Kimi Antonelli may not be quite ready for a Mercedes F1 seat next year, especially if the team’s current trajectory puts it in championship-contending territory in 2025.
In such circumstances, a short/medium term deal with Sainz would be a big win for Mercedes, and for Sainz it would be obvious to find the least bad of his alternatives.
That is why his situation has frozen again. If Mercedes gives Antonelli more time in F2 and more private tests in F1 to assess him properly, and if Alpine in particular is prepared to wait to see if Sainz is available, his situation seems most likely to deteriorate in the second half of the year.
WHAT WILL WILLIAMS DO?
Sainz appears to have started to slip away from Williams’ grasp, at least on the desired timeline, as team boss James Vowles does not want to risk missing out on quality alternatives by holding on to a driver who could potentially push him out.
Williams has always been keen on Sainz, but it has also started to prepare for life without him. Talks with other drivers have taken place anyway and Bottas, who started his F1 career with the team, seems the most likely to return to the team. A chance for Mercedes protégé Antonelli, however, cannot be ruled out, as George Russell spent three years at Williams.
It is possible that Perez’s arrival on the market will make Williams think twice, but if the team wants to go down the experience route, he is by no means a clear improvement on Bottas, who, as well as probably being a faster driver, has the advantage of knowing the team well.
Bottas has been a contender at every team that had vacancies, but his current team, Sauber, don’t seem to want him and he doesn’t want to stay. Haas wants Ocon, and Alpine – as well as being a high-risk option given its chaotic recent history – seems to have settled on Sainz and has Doohan as a fallback. Williams ticks a lot of boxes for Bottas and could be a good long-term project to commit to.
For Williams, with Ocon (who didn’t seem like a prime choice there anyway) on his way to Haas, the situation now looks simple: wait for Sainz, lock in Bottas while it knows it still can, or take Antonelli on a multi-year ‘apprenticeship’ for Mercedes.
Vowles may have a clear idea of the deadlines between Sainz and Antonelli before making his move. If the Mercedes situation is not close to being resolved, a Williams/Bottas deal before the summer break or in August would not be a surprise.
WHO MISSED?
All this almost certainly means the end of Magnussen (Haas), Zhou Guanyu (Sauber) and Logan Sargeant (Williams). But it is not impossible that there is also another victim in the driver market.
It’s also worth noting that Vowles continues to leave the door open to the possibility of parting ways with Sargeant mid-season. But that would surely only happen if it gave the team a strong start with his 2025 signing.
It will certainly only be an option with Antonelli, if Mercedes decides that he do would deserve a promotion to F1 but not directly to his factory team.
It has been suggested that Ocon could be a contender for the job given his strained relationship with Alpine, but he would need to be tied to Williams in 2025 for that to make sense.
He is not considered Williams’ preferred choice and if he is indeed set to sign a contract with Haas for 2025, that would obviously put him in jeopardy anyway.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that the most chaotic choices (in terms of side effects) are made at all levels, and that Perez is replaced by Lawson, Mercedes signs Sainz and places Antonelli at Williams.
That would leave three seats available at Haas, Alpine and Sauber/Audi, providing a reprieve for either Magnussen or Doohan depending on which team ultimately ends up with the vacant seat.
It is precisely this level of uncertainty that explains why a silly season that started unusually early is still hanging in the balance as the time of year it normally begins approaches.
