The countdown to the trade deadline has begun

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The trade deadline is in a week! Ken talks about Tarik Skubal’s situation in Detroit, the Braves are trying to replace Ozzie Albies, and Fabian Ardaya joins me to talk about the Dodgers rotation. Levi Weaverattached Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Trade Deadline: The Countdown Has Begun

While the obvious buyers and sellers for the July 30 deadline have been easy to identify for weeks, the situations of a few other teams have been more clearly resolved over the past two weeks.

Buying trend: THE Astros — despite last night’s 4-0 loss in Oakland — have surged from a horrible start to move into first place (by fractions of a percentage point). They’ll be looking for starting pitchers, and maybe a first baseman.

THE The Royals are now in the third wild-card spot and could improve their bullpen. Pirates“Their rotation has them half a game out of a playoff spot; now they just need a few at-bats. Put (half a game ahead of Pittsburgh) need relievers, and the The Diamondbacks (half game late) need pitcher.

Sales trend: It’s time to unplug the Rays (10.5 games behind in the American League East), who will likely trade bullpen players (or maybe lean in and trade hitters like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena). The Reds They had a glimmer of hope before the All-Star break, but were swept in D.C. Last night’s win seemed too late to turn the tide.

I still can’t understand them: I had the Rangers in the previous paragraph before last night. But with a win (and losses by the Astros and Mariners), they are only four games back of the AL West. giants (4-6 in their last 10) and Cubs (6-4) are each 3 1/2 games back in the wild-card race. Neither appears ready to be fully sold, but neither appears to be a genuine playoff contender.

Further reading on deadlines:

Our team has some bold predictions for all 30 teams.
In today’s deadline roundup, we look at some intriguing trade candidates in each of four categories: starter, reliever, right-handed hitter and left-handed hitter.

Ken’s Corner: What should the Tigers do with Skubal?

From my last column:

We all want a blockbuster. But mind-blowing, mind-blowing blockbusters are increasingly rare. Fans should be familiar by now with the catchphrases that team executives use as excuses, God forbid they trade away their prized prospects™ and do something big:

The clubs want to protect their “years of control”. They do not want to “mortgage the future”. They prefer to build a “sustainable competitor”.

For these and other reasons – not least, “I want to keep my job” – many team leaders are, almost by default, risk averse.

Padres general manager AJ Preller is an exception. So is his Northwest spirit animal, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. Most other buyers proceed with extreme caution. And some sellers, quite reasonably, prefer to keep their best players rather than simply dump their talent year after year.

Here’s a look at the decision the Tigers face regarding Tarik Skubal, and a recommendation on whether he should stay or go:

In a trade market short on aces, Skubal, 27, is a logical target for teams desperate for rotation help. The Orioles and Dodgers fit that description. So do the Guardians, Astros and Padres. A number of other clubs, including the Red Sox, Cardinals and Braves, are also looking for a replacement.

So the Tigers intend to get Skubal back, simply for the sake of diligence. But after seven straight losing seasons, they’re finally starting to show some vitality. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 games. Young hitters like second baseman Colt Keith and designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy are maturing. And now they’re going to trade a pitcher who’s a leading Cy Young candidate and under club control, at below-market projected salaries, for two more seasons?

The only reason to do so would be the obvious one: fear of Skubal getting hurt. It’s a legitimate concern, since seemingly every pitcher on the planet breaks down, and Skubal’s health history isn’t exactly spotless. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022 that sidelined him for nearly a year. So the idea of trading him for top-tier prospects isn’t outrageous. Still.

The Tigers aren’t going to get six years of Jackson Holliday for two-plus years of Skubal. They’re not a revenue-poor team, not when they had top-five salaries under the late Mike Ilitch from 2012-17. And, after starting the season ranked 25th in salary, they should be ready to spend again soon.

Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, so a contract extension is unlikely. No matter. The Tigers play in an improving but still relatively weak American League Central division. With Skubal, they have a chance to get back to the playoffs before he becomes a free agent. Without him, they would remain in the same hamster wheel they’ve been on for nearly a decade.

To stay or to go? To stay.

To find out my thoughts on five other players, read the full column.

No more tigers:How Jake Rogers Became the Heartbeat of the Tigers

Injury: Braves’ infield in trouble

The Braves (54-45) have had a tough time, injury-wise. Spencer Strider made two starts before succumbing to the Tommy John curse. Ronald Acuña Jr. tore up his knee. other ACL in May. Ozzie Albies has a fractured hand, and we don’t know yet how long Max Fried’s forearm will keep him sidelined.

But this is a new and cruel development. Whit Merrifield, released by the Phillies earlier this month, officially signed with the Braves on Monday. Welcome to the ballpark, Whit. Want to take a few ground balls before the game?

(minutes later)

You may not believe it, but it’s true: Whit Merrifield took a bullet to the finger of his pitching hand while fielding ground balls an hour ago, and is currently being evaluated to make sure there is no damage.

As Snitker said, managing a smile: “You couldn’t make this up… This year, it’s something else.”

– David O’Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 22, 2024

O’Brien later issued an update, saying there was no fracture and that Merrifield was day to day. onFor now, to replace Albies, the Braves will rely on rookie Nacho Alvarez, who played mostly shortstop in the minor leagues (with some third base). Alvarez played second base in high school and told O’Brien he felt comfortable there. He went 0-for-4 in his major league debut last night against the Reds, but the 21-year-old has hit .293/.401/.417 (.818 OPS) across two levels — including a .336 average and 1.007 OPS — in 28 games at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Q&A with Beat Writer: Why Dodgers DFA James Paxton?

On Sunday, James Paxton recorded the first win by a Dodgers starter in 25 days. On Monday, he was designated for assignment. Dodgers reporter Fabian Ardaya was kind enough to join us to answer a few questions about the move.

With rotation as a priority declared for the exchange deadlineWhy did the Dodgers fire Paxton? NOW?

Fabien: The Dodgers are certainly going to target starting pitchers, and there’s a reason they’ve been linked to players like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet during this deadline season. While Paxton certainly helped LA get to this point — he’s one of only two Dodgers starting pitchers (Gavin Stone) who’ve made every turn in the rotation this season — it was hard to imagine a scenario where he’d be pitching for the team in October unless something went seriously wrong.

Sure, they’ve had a lot of issues and, until recently, had the most pitchers on the injured list of any team, but they figured the timing made sense. They expect Paxton to be on the trade market, and designating him for assignment now was essentially the equivalent of trying to trade him on July 30 while giving them the flexibility to bring in River Ryan, who pitched 5 1/3 solid sleeves in his MLB debut last night.

With Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw returning from the IL this week, what is the current state of the Dodgers rotation?

Fabien: Still not at full strength. Tyler Glasnow’s absence was short, as expected, but the Dodgers still have to see how Clayton Kershaw is when he returns. They’re naturally optimistic about his condition and how he’s looking, but this is still a player coming off the first major arm surgery of his career. The Dodgers still have Bobby Miller in Triple-A trying to get back on track. Walker Buehler has been on the outside looking in and working through his own issues and getting healthy after struggling in his initial return from a second Tommy John surgery.

Then there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers’ $325 million man still plans to return this season, but what will he look like when he returns from a shoulder issue? And can he be a player the Dodgers rely on in October? That’s something the Dodgers won’t be able to determine until the deadline, but it will certainly weigh in on their decisions.

For more on the Dodgers’ moves and rotation, Fabian also a full story here.

Handshakes and high fives

This week, the Power Rankings handed over the reins to our readers. Let’s see how You We ranked them, while our writers gave an outlook on the second half of the season for each team.

Jim Bowden argues that sellers should go ahead and sell their star pitchers to maximize returns.

Eno Sarris has your second-half starting pitcher rankings.

Most clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: The man, the myth, the legend: Nick Castellanos and his impeccable timing.

Most read MLB article on the site today: Ken’s deep dive into the dynamic between Shohei Ohtani, his former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, and agent Nez Balelo.