This weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix is the final race before the summer break, during which Red Bull aims to make a decision on its Formula 1 driver line-up for the remainder of 2024.
Sergio Perez’s poor form has left Red Bull Racing vulnerable in the constructors’ championship, particularly after McLaren’s one-two finish at the Hungarian Grand Prix last weekend.
Red Bull wants to wait until August to make an informed decision about what to do away from the stress and hazards of race weekends.
His options are, on paper, simple: keep Perez and back him to get the job done or replace him and reshuffle his team in the process.
The choice is likely to be too great for a race weekend at Spa to be so crucial, but it could either confirm recent trends or give Red Bull new data to consider.
So what are Red Bull’s options, and can anyone influence their thinking in this final race before the break?
Daniel Ricciardo
Red Bull Status:Horner’s preferred short-term option
Argument for:Experienced and in better shape
What he can do at Spa: Leading RB and continuing its mini-revival
Ricciardo is considered a short-term replacement for Perez for the remainder of the 2024 season due to a combination of circumstances and his own recent improvements.
Despite a difficult start to the year with the second Red Bull team alongside Yuki Tsunoda, with Ricciardo failing to impress early on, his form has improved fairly consistently since the Canadian Grand Prix.
He has scored more points than Tsunoda since, has generally qualified well for the car’s capabilities, and only poor strategy choices by the team have prevented better results – most recently last weekend in Hungary.
Ricciardo’s turnaround in performance coincided with a critical phase of the constructors’ championship, in which Red Bull faced increased competition, particularly from McLaren.
Red Bull’s need for a reliable second driver to support Max Verstappen and secure the constructors’ title has become increasingly urgent, and Ricciardo’s experience and potential fit with the RB20 make him a viable option for the remainder of this year.
But he needs to build on his recent form and finish with a solid weekend at Spa to really strengthen his case, and he is still banking on Perez continuing to show weaknesses.
Sergio Perez
Red Bull Status: Licensed driver
Argument for:Easy to keep, it shows signs of life
What he can do at Spa:Finally put an end to his misery in qualifications
Perez faces a critical moment at the upcoming Spa race, which could potentially be his last for Red Bull – although he continues to say he will be with the team at the end of this season and next year as well.
Despite a disappointing period since his last podium in China, with a string of disappointing results, Perez showed signs of recovery during the Hungarian GP weekend.
He felt more comfortable with the car, benefiting from upgrades including a front wing that boosted his confidence even if it lacked the big bodywork of the high-downforce Red Bull package.
That confidence boost saw Perez survive a crash in qualifying and translate into a solid race recovery from 16th to seventh, with his pace close to Verstappen’s for most of the grand prix, with team principal Christian Horner calling it Perez’s best race in three months.
Asked by The Race, Horner declined to say whether a repeat at Spa would guarantee Perez his seat. The question remains whether one more race is enough to convince Red Bull of his long-term viability.
This probably can’t completely change Red Bull’s decision-making process, but it can influence it. Ending his terrible qualifying performance would be a start. At the very least, he needs to avoid crashing out in Q1 for the third race in a row.
If all goes well, it won’t tell the team anything, but it will show that Perez is not on an irreversible decline. If things get worse, it will increase Red Bull’s concern and undermine the positives from last weekend.
Liam Lawson
Red Bull Status: Joker choice
Argument for:Red Bull junior with good potential
What he can do at Spa: Wait
Lawson’s role at Red Bull, where he is a reserve driver for both teams, has left him with limited opportunities this season. His five grands prix for RB last year in place of the injured Ricciardo means he is not eligible for the first FP1 outings that teams must make twice during the season. And he does not race anywhere else in addition to his reserve driver duties in F1.
Despite this, Red Bull remain keen to give Lawson a drive in F1 after his outings with the RB last year and a recent test with the 2024 RB20 went well enough to keep him in mind for the 2025 race. And there is the element of needing to give Lawson a drive for 2025 by September, or he will become a free agent.
Still, all things considered, Lawson feels more like a contender at Red Bull Racing in 2025 rather than on the verge of an immediate promotion to replace Perez mid-season.
Red Bull appear cautious about promoting too early, recognising the challenges and pressures that come with jumping in halfway through the year and being tasked with bringing home a championship the team desperately wants (and over a thousand employees have a hefty bonus on the line).
If the role is deemed too demanding for Lawson at this stage, but Red Bull still want to replace Perez, then giving that seat to Ricciardo would then mean putting Lawson in a full-time role at the sister team alongside Tsunoda for the remainder of 2024.
This would allow Lawson to gain more experience and prove himself in familiar surroundings after last year, across a bigger racing series, and make him a serious contender for a permanent role at either team in 2025.
Yuki Tsunoda
Red Bull Status:Marko’s preference but a foreigner
Argument for:The best performing RB driver overall
What he can do at Spa: Beat Ricciardo and hope for the best
Tsunoda, despite a good job over the last season and a half, is clearly seen as a last resort option for promotion within Red Bull, mainly due to internal dynamics and off-track concerns.
Although Tsunoda has generally outperformed his more experienced team-mate Ricciardo, the decision-making process within Red Bull has changed, with Horner now having more influence over driver choice than Helmut Marko, who favours Tsunoda.
The concerns over Tsunoda seem to be about his attitude and ability to handle pressure. That doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the overall nature of his performances at RB over the last year, but it is a different environment. It seems Red Bull feel he is more likely to struggle like Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon did.
These concerns make his promotion unlikely, certainly this year and probably 2025, unless several other options fail: for example if Perez is sidelined, if Ricciardo underperforms as his replacement, and if Lawson is beaten to the RB role by Tsunoda.
Tsunoda’s situation reflects how difficult F1 can be when there is more than just performance to consider.
