It is nothing new for Max Verstappen’s Red Bull to qualify comfortably fastest at Spa only to then receive grid penalties.
He has dominated the race for the last two years in this manner. This time he emerged from the shadows on the intermediates to be quickest by a margin of more than 0.6s over an outperforming Charles Leclerc.
It was an advantage that was amplified by allowing him to get through Q1 and Q2 using just one set of intermediate tyres in each session, leaving him with the flexibility to make do with two new sets in Q3 and giving him the perfect combination of new tyres and track grip that is beyond the reach of anyone else.
But he at least doesn’t think it’s a harbinger of history repeating itself on race day, seen from his 11thth place the grid location.
“I’m not as confident as I was in the last three years that I’ll get back to the top. I still see this more as a damage limitation race.”
Others – notably McLaren’s Lando Norris, who qualified only fifth ahead of team-mate Oscar Piastri but behind Leclerc, Red Bull’s Sergio Perez and Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton – don’t see it that way.
“All weekend, Red Bull have been better than us here,” Norris said. “I don’t think they showed their cards yesterday like we did. That’s about all we’ve got.”
There is a very good reason why the McLarens could only qualify fifth and sixth in the wet. They used much less downforce than the others, particularly Red Bull. But the race day was expected to be dry. So McLaren used the smallest wing they had all weekend and simply continued with the bigger angle they had used in FP2, just enough to keep it within its effective range.
That being said, there is logic in Verstappen and Norris’ interpretations as to who actually has the advantage.
“Looking at McLaren’s pace over the long run (in the dry) yesterday, it looks incredibly strong,” Verstappen said. “They looked very comfortable on track. But even if they start a bit wide, they’re fighting for the lead quite comfortably… I’d be very happy if we could just keep up that race pace – and start further back and on different tyres, it’s really a damage limitation race for me.”
Verstappen used the very big wing he used on Friday in FP1. But even the one he tried in FP2 with the cutouts on the outside still provided more downforce than the others. For today (and for the rest of the weekend), he went back to the original wing, even bigger.
So he was 0.8 seconds faster than Norris through the Sector 2 corners. He was even more than 0.4 seconds faster than the second fastest, Leclerc in a Ferrari that had more downforce than the McLaren but much less than the Red Bull. Yet Verstappen was still slightly faster than Norris through the Sector 1 and 3 straights.
A high-downforce wing is generally quicker over a single lap of Spa in the dry and obviously even quicker in the wet. But in the dry it obviously makes the car less capable, it makes it difficult to attack or defend on the long runs towards the overtaking zones at Les Combes and the Bus Stop. Maybe. Verstappen doesn’t see it that way. He sees it from a tyre degradation perspective.
Tire degradation on the new surface was significantly higher than expected for everyone, much higher than on the old surface.
“I hope (the bigger wing) will help tomorrow because it’s a bit warmer and there’s a bit more sliding,” Verstappen said. “Look at the McLaren and the thin wing works for them. The DRS effect is quite big here, but I think it’s more important to be good with the tyres. If you’re good with the tyres you can overtake people.”
That’s why the Red Bull is fast in sectors 1 and 3 despite the big wing; its DRS effect is particularly powerful. In this case, we see what Max is thinking.
As long as he is in the pack and passing the slower cars (which for him include the Ferraris and Mercedes) and has their DRS, he will not be vulnerable. Once he has passed them, he feels that their tyres will no longer give them the traction that he still has and so he will be out of their reach in the overtaking zones.
With the help of Perez (who starts from the front row alongside Leclerc), he could perhaps get closer to the McLarens, who he is convinced will be at the forefront by then.
Verstappen has lingering doubts, but they are not about the level of his wing. “In recent races, McLaren has had a bigger advantage on race day than on a single lap. Especially when it’s hot. The temperatures are going to be higher tomorrow. And we only kept one set of hard tyres and they kept two. I don’t know how it’s going to go.”
The McLaren’s better tyre clearance and the more robust tyres available, plus the difficulty for Max to work his own tyres when moving up from P11, have him concerned there will be no downside to McLaren’s low wing choice on Sunday.
“The low downforce hurt us today, but it should pay off tomorrow,” admits Norris, responding to the remark that higher track temperatures seem to help the McLaren over the Red Bull. Before saying he’s not as comfortable with the car here as he has been in recent races, and not very confident in the high-speed sections.
Piastri, who was fastest in the race simulation yesterday, by around 0.4s ahead of Verstappen, seemed much more confident. Asked if it was possible to win from sixth, he replied: “I think so… although it’s one thing to be fast in practice, it’s another to be fast in the dirty air of the cars in front. But let’s see. I think we have a very fast car. It’s going to be an exciting race, I think. The pace is going to be a bit up and down. I think Max will do well but I think tyre degradation is a very big question mark.”
“We didn’t want to compromise our top speed tomorrow,” said Andrea Stella. “I don’t think starting position will be the deciding factor. We just have to be there at the end of the race and do a good job managing the tires and using the top speed of the car. I think if we combine all of these elements we will have a good Sunday.”
Norris is known as a glass-half-empty type. But he is not alone in his doubts about his ability to contain Verstappen. Lewis Hamilton, third fastest on a Mercedes that has had its floor replaced by the old one to prevent bouncing, agrees. “The McLarens and the Red Bulls are much quicker than us, the Ferraris about the same. But I think Max will come through because they are the quickest this weekend. It will be a big fight to hold him off. But I am ready.”
So far, there has been little talk about who will start on pole. Leclerc’s second fastest time was a superb lap in a Ferrari that, once he found a way to get the tyres in, proved very well balanced. “I think in the dry we could have hoped for fifth or sixth,” he said.
He showed excellent grip on a surface that varied greatly from corner to corner and his effort into Pouhon was very impressive. Carlos Sainz, in the sister car, lost tyre temperature and was spectacular in his progression into oversteer, but relatively slow. He finished P8, 0.7s behind his team-mate and one place behind the Mercedes of George Russell.
So there are two key questions. Is the Red Bull really faster than the McLaren, as Norris believes? Certainly Perez’s strong performance in third in qualifying (albeit more than 0.6s behind Verstappen) suggests it is much more competitive than in Hungary. The only time it has lagged behind the McLaren was in FP2, when it used the shortened rear wing. But then there is race pace.
Which brings us to the issue of tyre wear. If – and it’s always a big ‘if’ at Spa – the weather is as predicted, we’ll have a race dominated by tyre wear. Logic dictates that more downforce equals less tyre wear and that’s what Red Bull’s entire strategy is based on.
But it has already happened at Spa that the tyres have too much downforce. The very high loads in the long, fast corners can actually overstress the tyre core, which can no longer support the tread properly.
This has already happened to Red Bull under Vettel. If so, McLaren’s choice of rear wing could prove to be a wise one.
