You’ll just have to take my word for it.
But because some GMs had to selfishly step up and improve their teams at the time Before At the deadline, I have to start from scratch with a new batch of predictions that I’m sure will be just as accurate.*
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will go to the Mariners
Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto must be feeling the pressure after this team, with an elite rotation, squandered a 10-game division lead in less time than it takes to say, “We’re going to win 54 percent of the time.” You just know if Dealin’ Dipoto is going to go down, he’s going to go down in trade!
Arozarena is in the mix, but with Julio Rodriguez injured and underperforming and several 33-year-olds named Mitch (Garver and Haniger) hitting around .200, the Mariners STILL desperately need offense. They got Arozarena done without trading catcher Harry Ford or any of their coveted infield prospects (Cole Young, Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten). They can get Guerrero a deal.
The Blue Jays have publicly stated they don’t want to trade Guerrero and have announced a rebuild, but they haven’t been able to win with him, and their outlook for 2025 (his final year of control) looks bleak. With Deadline short on impact hitters, this is a good time for them to come to their senses and recoup some value for Vladdy Jr.
Dodgers to sign Garrett Crochet and Lane Thomas
Already clearly in “World Series or nothing” mode, the Dodgers are perfectly positioned not only to accommodate Crochet’s extension requests, but also to schedule him through the end of the season so his innings are manageable before what matters most to them: October. Catcher/first baseman Dalton Rushing or outfielder Josue De Paula could be a front-end piece in a Crochet trade, and the Dodgers also have plenty of pitchers in their pipeline to craft a compelling package for the South Side Sellers.
As for the outfield, with Los Angeles’ core prospect package used in a potential Crochet deal, the Dodgers will make a smaller but still significant deal for Thomas from the Nationals, who would bring good contact and speed. Thomas entered the week with a 24-game on-base streak.
Tarik Skubal is not going anywhere
But Blake Snell goes to the Astros
Want to reach the ALCS for an eighth straight year? Go all out or go home, Stro!
It has become clear that maintaining their level of excellence in 2025 and beyond will be a challenge for the Astros, who have Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly and Justin Verlander set to become free agents, and Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker expected to become more expensive in arbitration. Acquiring Snell will be a final attempt by Deadline to try to definitively overtake the Mariners in the American League West standings and advance again in October.
Snell’s 2025 player option really complicates the trade equation. Will Houston move top prospect Jacob Melton in this deal? Could it involve Spencer Arrighetti? I have no idea. I just know it would be more fun if it involved Arrighetti and the Giants’ pitching coach was still Dave Righetti.
Yankees to sign Luis Rengifo and Tanner Scott
The Yankees have the makings of a good Jazz player, but they still need another hitter, preferably someone who can help fill the black hole that is third base. Rengifo, an ambidextrous hitter and a free agent after next season, could help this lineup in a number of ways, and help the Yankees get out of their summer rut.
And the Yankees will almost certainly add a reliever, maybe two. Scott from Miami fits the bill – a lefty who misses at-bats and delivers with the game on the line. He’ll also be very expensive in this deal. The Yankees already have a big deal with the Marlins. Predicting that they’ll outbid the Marlins and make another one is probably overly ambitious. But “Yankees to trade for Scott Alexander” didn’t seem interesting enough to go with the headline of this article, so here it is.
Guardians to bring in Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham
While he may not have the cachet of his teammate Crochet, Fedde is the best bet to give you some length late in the season. And the Guardians, who have been battered in their rotation all year and are overly reliant on their formidable bullpen, could certainly use some of that. Fedde is a great story as a guy who went to Korea and came back really knowing how to run a game, as Cleveland has seen in a few failed efforts against him this season. He would also be affordable under their control for 2025. They like that.
Pham, meanwhile, is a rental, which helps keep his transfer price in check. He brings a right-handed bat with a smart approach, some punch and dynamism to a lineup that could not only use a boost with several offensive All-Stars in the throes of a midseason slump, but could also use another outfield and designated hitter option.
Acquiring Eflin, who is under control through 2025, gives the Orioles flexibility to make short-term moves if they add another starter, as I suspect they will. It didn’t work out with Flaherty last summer, but that doesn’t mean it won’t work out now that he’s reasserted himself with the Tigers (2.95 ERA, 143 ERA+). Corbin Burnes, Flaherty, Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the playoff rotation, bolstered by this dynamic offense? Sounds good to me! And it goes without saying that the Orioles have the trade capital to beat the opposition in Flaherty’s sweepstakes.
(But don’t worry, if Baltimore can lure a certain White Sox starting pitcher, I’ll have a “Fedde-ral Hill” pun in store.)
That would still leave the O’s in need of a left-handed backup, and — while the Tigers could provide that with Tyler Holton’s long-term form — Detroit is more likely to move veteran Chafin in the midst of a bounce-back year. He has a $6.5 million team option for 2025.
Yusei Kikuchi will go to the Cardinals
Kikuchi is a starting pitcher entering his 30s, so he belongs with the Cardinals.
Cal Quantrill to go to Twins
The Twins need a starter but probably won’t break the bank. Quantrill of the Rockies is a starter who won’t break the bank. Also, I just did some research and of the teams Quantrill has pitched at least 50 innings against in his career, the Twins are the one he’s had the most success against (6-0, 2.90 ERA in 12 appearances). So they’ve seen him be good.
Take notes, kids. That’s how you predict things.
There will be more bullpen trades that will make you say, “Wow!”
The Royals made me say, “Whoa!” when they traded their No. 2 prospect, third baseman Cayden Wallace, and the 39th overall pick in this year’s draft for reliever Hunter Harvey. The Padres also earned a “Whoa!” when they traded their No. 3 (Dylan Lesko), No. 8 (Homer Bush Jr.) and No. 12 (J.D. Gonzalez) prospects in exchange for Adam.
So it’s impossible to guess who will go where as many arms of relief circulate in the coming days, but this market has a clear trend. When Federal Reserve officials meet this week to discuss possible interest rate cuts in light of the improving inflationary environment in the United States, they will have to take into account the rising cost of financial aid.
A lot more stuff is going to happen!
If I haven’t mentioned a trade involving your favorite team, it’s not because I don’t think they’ll be active. It’s because a human being can only make so many mistakes in one go without it affecting their psyche. I’m not that masochistic.
But here is one last one…
At 6:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday, someone will sign Rich Hill.
This will be the team that comes out of Deadline most frustrated by its (lack of) ability to round out its rotation. And when Hill makes his debut for this team (OK, OK, I’ll take the bait and guess his hometown Red Sox), there will once again be a major league player older than me! Thanks for your service, Rich.