And there it is: the cork has finally popped off the bottle. And unexpectedly, as you might expect: as everyone looked away from the neck of the glass bottle, the cork broke free of its moorings and landed directly in James Vowles’ lap. Carlos Sainz has signed with Williams for 2025 and beyond, ending a seemingly endless saga of rumors, innuendos, cyclical links and denials.
The Spaniard suddenly became a free agent for next season when Ferrari announced the sensational news that Lewis Hamilton would partner Charles Leclerc, unwittingly assuming the starring role in the masked ball of the market. There was no shortage of suitors, particularly among the mid-table teams looking to beat their rivals.
After all, this driver was also linked to the vacant seats at Red Bull and Mercedes, a three-time winner who became known for his cerebral approach and tactical wizardry in planning his races. In addition to his accolades accrued after nearly a decade in F1, Sainz was able to go toe-to-toe with Max Verstappen during their year and a few years together at Toro Rosso, led McLaren alongside a still-green Lando Norris, and found parity with Leclerc during their time together at Ferrari. Any of the current big names in F1, and Sainz has at least matched them regularly.
It’s no surprise why Williams wanted Sainz and, once it became clear that the Madrid driver was on the market, Vowles knew he had to take a chance. He eventually got his man, but it’s an understatement to say he had to fight a bit to secure his services.
When Sainz’s unemployment for 2025 became apparent, Sauber were the first to react. The Swiss team are eagerly awaiting their 2026 name change to Audi and made a lucrative offer to Sainz to join Nico Hulkenberg at the team as they look to make a statement in their preparations for the new regulations.
But Sainz was never really convinced by the offer. Sauber declined significantly, doing nothing but treading water as it finds itself in an uncomfortable waiting situation for 2026. Audi had to accelerate its takeover process earlier this year when it became clear that former owner Finn Rausing was not going to invest more money in a team he was not going to own for very long.
Sainz was never particularly convinced by the prospect of joining the Sauber team that would transform into Audi
Photo by: Mark Sutton
Even allowing for family connections (Carlos Sainz Sr won this year’s Dakar Rally with Audi), there were plenty more doors open for Sainz the Younger when he received an initial offer from Sauber. There was Hamilton’s former seat at Mercedes, for example. Red Bull had yet to renew Sergio Perez’s contract, while Aston Martin might have considered Sainz had Fernando Alonso jumped ship for an Indian summer with a winning team.
A dream? Perhaps. It seemed that way when Alonso tied up his future with Aston Martin for two more years, and Red Bull “locked in” Perez for 2025 and beyond.
Mercedes also did not appear to be an option, with young prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli long-rumoured to take the wheel alongside George Russell. The 17-year-old is seen as a key part of the team’s future, and team principal Toto Wolff’s predilection for Antonelli to get the wheel was shaped by his failure to offer Verstappen a concrete path to F1 in 2014. For Sainz, Mercedes could only have been an option for a year or two, and risked becoming a persona non grata if Antonelli’s inevitable signing was delayed until 2026.
Sainz was much more impressed with Williams’ battle plan. Vowles has put his vision into action and owners Dorilton Capital will continue to back him.
When Williams replaced Sainz, Vowles had an idea to sell him, an idea he tried to share with the world in his usual precise manner. At first glance, it pales in comparison to the Audi deal: given their respective financial situations, his salary at Williams would not be nearly as high.
Audi has offered a works team deal, with Williams set to remain a Mercedes customer team until 2030 at the earliest. And, reading Vowles’ interviews over the last 18 months, it’s clear that the Grove factory still needs investment in its facilities if it is to have any hope of making it into the bottom half of the field.
But Sainz was far more impressed by Williams’ battle plan. Audi’s preparations for 2026 have long felt inert, characterised by the internal conflict between Andreas Seidl and Oliver Hoffmann. At Williams? Vowles has implemented his vision, and owners Dorilton Capital will continue to back it.
On Sunday, Vowles estimated his chances of signing Sainz as “100, over 50 per cent – what do you think? How confident am I? I think the odds are in our favour. But I’ve been stung by it once already this year.” That alludes to the fact that Williams had almost agreed a deal at the start of the season, before Alpine disrupted the entire race with a last-minute bid for Sainz.
Despite the scale of the rebuilding effort Williams faces, Sainz was impressed by the vision Vowles put forward
Photo by: Williams
The bored French team was shaken out of its torpor when it became clear that Esteban Ocon would not continue to play for the team. Although social media likes to suggest that Ocon has been relieved of his services for 2025, it was a genuinely mutual understanding.
Ocon was frustrated by Alpine’s poor start to the season and his feeling that the team was not listening to feedback from its drivers. Team principal Bruno Famin was fed up with the fractious relationship with Pierre Gasly. The other driving force was Flavio Briatore, who had been tempted back to the team with which he had enjoyed so much success by Renault CEO Luca de Meo.
Briatore wanted to shake things up and questioned why the team had not tried to replace Ocon with arguably the best driver on the market for 2025. He told Sainz about Alpine’s master plan: to ditch the Renault power unit for 2026 and take on a Mercedes customer deal, with a revised technical structure shaped by Moby-lookalike David Sanchez, fresh from a three-month stint at McLaren.
Sainz was so tempted that he had to put the brakes on negotiations with Williams, which significantly delayed his moves; he wasn’t going to make a decision in the midst of a triple header. Further complications arose and a bead of sweat appeared on Vowles’ often-furrowed brow.
Red Bull had extended Perez’s contract in the hope that he could overcome his behavioural issues, but his performances remained noticeably tepid once the ink dried on his clause-laden contract. Mercedes returned to the forefront for a while, as Antonelli’s first season in F2 was rather testing – once the top team in F2, the Prema team that Antonelli joined was struggling to get to grips with the new Dallara chassis for 2024. Antonelli himself admitted that he was unsure whether he was ready for F1, having not been promoted directly from Formula Regional level for a long time.
So Vowles has had to reopen negotiations elsewhere. Valtteri Bottas has been named as the first replacement in case Sainz slips through the net, and the Finn’s performances this season have been masked by a dreadful Sauber chassis. And, despite earlier reservations about Ocon’s mastery of a utilitarian approach on track, the Frenchman has been considered an option. Vowles knows both drivers, even though Ocon has ultimately decided his own future by signing with Haas for 2025 to replace Kevin Magnussen.
Sainz’s final decision appears to come down to a straight fight between Williams and Alpine. Of the two, Williams had a level of security that comes with a coherent vision and identity, while Alpine appears to be moving towards a quasi-constructor team model before the team is inevitably sold for not having enough brand value for the Renault group. Despite Briatore’s obvious appeal, the mercurial Italian hasn’t had enough time to fully influence the team’s future – and with the best will in the world, the departing Famin doesn’t match Briatore in terms of charm.
The uncertainty over the direction of the Alpine team meant it was not such an attractive destination for Sainz
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
Sainz has therefore agreed the deal with Williams. The team presented the deal as a two-year deal with options to extend, and Vowles denied that any deal would include an exit clause for a top team.
So why Williams? Vowles instead set the scene on Sunday, the day before Sainz’s confirmation: “Here’s what he said to me, what touched me the most. ‘The reason I do this is that when I commit, I have to commit with all my heart and soul, 100 per cent – and for that, I can have no doubts.’ And that’s why he takes the time. And that resonated with me.”
And of all the projects, Williams is perhaps the most romantic. Vowles has been busy preparing the team’s return to the top, aiming to complete a tortuous and arduous journey since its last title in 1997. He has offered Sainz the opportunity to be an integral part of that project and help rebuild an illustrious team that nearly followed Lotus and Brabham into extinction.
Albon will benefit enormously from having Sainz in the Williams camp, and the team can also count on his mental Rolodex of tips and tricks to help them improve.
There is no need to say what Williams gets from Sainz, as he is among the top six or seven drivers on the grid in terms of pure talent. He gives the team a proven benchmark to measure themselves against, to gauge where Alex Albon is in the other car, and perhaps to give the Anglo-Thai driver the competition he has lacked with Nicholas Latifi and Logan Sargeant in the team. Albon will benefit enormously from having Sainz in the Williams team, and the team can also count on his mental Rolodex of tips and tricks to get them closer to the top of the F1 competition.
Sainz’s move will now trigger the next phase of the driver market: all that remains to be settled is a Mercedes drive, a Red Bull and RB drive depending on the outcome of a certain meeting, the Sauber spot alongside Hulkenberg and the identity of Gasly’s new Alpine teammate. Bottas will be the driver most upset by Sainz’s signing at Williams, which should lead Sauber to want to renew his contract in the near future. And what about Daniel Ricciardo, Liam Lawson or even Perez? We may not have to wait too long for an answer…
How the remaining pieces of the F1 driver market puzzle fall into place should be a point of intrigue over the coming weeks.
Photo: Red Bull Content Pool