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Week 22 | May 31-June 2, 2024
Range Top 10 | Weekend 22, 2024: $55 million to $85 million
Top 10 overall | Weekend 22, 2023: $203,338,486
The crisis of early summer 2024 will continue with a drop expected this weekend. The three new releases planned for this weekend: Sony/Crunchyroll’s Haikyuu: Battle of the DumpstersRoadside attractions Summer campand Disney Young woman and the sea– are struggling to provide enough sessions with a limited number of screens at their disposal. This trio of titles follows a group of lackluster Memorial Day holiday weekend openings: Warner Bros. Angry: A Mad Max sagathat of Sony THE Garfield movieand Angel Studios’ View.
All signs point to a significant year-over-year decline for this weekend. We expect the tide to start turning in June, starting with Sony’s fourquel double. Bad Boys: Ride or Die and the Disney/Pixar animated sequel Inside Out 2 on the first two images of the month.
Podium Box-office Pro
Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | May 31-June 2, 2024
1. The Garfield Movie
Sony Photos | Week 2
3-day range: $12 to $18 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 15%
Benefits
- The most important factor to consider this coming weekend is how close the big orange cat came to flipping. Angry and his wasteland cohorts on Memorial Day. The 3-Day and 4-Day versions only showed a difference of $0.9 million between the two competitors, with Sony boldly stating Garfield the winner of the 4 days on Sunday before Warners announced Angry the real winner in their Monday estimates the next day. It is an easily surmountable track, and Garfield can win this frame if families traveling over last week’s bank holiday weekend decide to show their support this time around.
- For Garfield in particular, the low critical consensus (37% on Rotten Tomatoes) probably doesn’t have a major impact on its view, as family films are generally critic-proof. See Sony The Angry Birds Movie, which had a $38.1 million opening on its way to $107.5 million domestic in 2016…despite a 44% critics score. Even the modern relevance of the Garfield brand isn’t much of a handicap since the parents who buy the tickets certainly remember the character from their childhood. Nostalgia could win out.
The inconvenients
- The biggest disadvantages affecting both Garfield And Angry is the current perception that these films are disappointments based on their opening weekend takes. There are also those “B+” CinemaScores that can impact audiences in the bubble as to whether or not they should go to the movies this weekend. The Garfield Movie also IF nipping at his heels, probably taking a bigger bite of that quad than Sony expected. If he has an advantage over Angry, it’s probably a slim model, and it could come down to another photo finish. Expect this to be a tough time, which could extend to Monday’s actual numbers.
2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Warner Bros. | Week 2 | More than 3,700 locations
3-day range: $10 to $15 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 13%
Benefits
- As indicated, Angry will take the crown if it can use critical reception (90% on RT) to leverage its Premium Large Format footprint (with higher ticket prices). An impressive 51% of this title’s opening weekend release came from PLF, with 20% coming from over 400 IMAX locations alone, meaning audiences would rather spend the extra dollars to see this title with all the bells and whistles offered by PLF cinemas. None of the new releases this weekend will claim their rights on these PLF screens, which gives Angry a second chance at weekend sales on higher ticket prices.
- Many analysts have pointed out that the previous entry, that of 2015 Mad Max: Road to Fury, wasn’t as much of a box office barn burner as we remembered, given that film’s enormous cultural footprint. This entry opened to $45.4 million, reaching $153,636,354 million domestically and $369,873,869 million globally. However, what’s interesting about this film’s performance is how it held up, never dropping below -48% until its 19th and final week of general release, and even climbing as high as positive percentages for a few frames. Even if Angry comes from a disadvantage compared to Fury Road, there is still hope that the film can hold up, in defiance of Chris Hemsworth’s character’s declaration, “There is no hope!” One aspect of this year’s box office that many don’t point out is the lack of stiff competition that has allowed titles like IF Or Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to have longer legs in the Top 10 than a normal year where everything is focused on the opening weekend with more massive releases in play. In this way, this year is much more like the 1980s model or 1990, where films tended to run longer. The only downside is the shorter theatrical windows before broadcast, like when WB put Dune: part two on digital while remaining in the Top 5.
The inconvenients
- Again, the perception that Angry is a major underperformer looming this weekend, with Memorial Day barely better than half of the previous entry. Even though the market is currently evolving, there is no doubt that the studio and the industry expected much better from this title. We’ve already cited prequel fatigue, a change in casting from Charlize Theron to the less established Anya Taylor-Joy, and the general lack of Mad Max in what’s billed as “A Mad Max Saga” as reasons for the performance that we obtained. . Sometimes revamped franchises just don’t work, as the recent The king’s man (all new cast, older setting), Independence Day: Resurgence (no Will Smith), or Wonders (refocused on less confirmed characters) showed.
- Although well reviewed, the fact that this film is perceived as “less than” Fury Road is bad news for such an eccentric and historically modest franchise. The criticism extends to the cinema itself, as Angry is slower, talkier, and more complex/expansive than previous entries which had simpler throughlines and a disregard for continuity. Besides the “B+” CinemaScore, you also have more fan-generated rating systems, like iMDB (7.9/10) and Letterboxd (3.8/5), which compare less favorably to Fury Road (8.1 iMDB/4.18 Mailboxd). With a film like Angry, you need word-of-mouth momentum, and there’s quantifiable evidence that the hype it needs may just not be there. These days, even a mild negative reaction can metastasize into total rejection.
3. IF
Primordial Images | Week 3
3-day range: $6 million to $10 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 11%
Benefits
- As for Garfield, the critical hit IF took (49% on RT) has little noticeable effect on its hold since it only fell 52% in its second frame, with a high number of theaters contributing to this. We’re expecting a potentially even smaller drop this weekend, as cute characters, savvy merchandise/tie-ins (IHOP, Dunkin’ Donuts, Baskin Robbins, etc.), and Ryan Reynolds’ adult crossover appeal help to keep this one alive and in the Top 3 for another weekend. The film should have no trouble holding on to third place, mainly due to the lack of competition from other titles and a positive “A” CinemaScore, making this one surprisingly less controversial than Angry Or Garfield regarding the general public. The film had a 4-day Memorial Day weekend, grossing $22.3 million for a domestic cume of $64.8 million, and still has two more pictures before Inside Out 2 puts him out of action.
The inconvenients
- The Garfield Movie is eclipsing IF abroad, where the former has $66.3 million while the latter has $39.9 million. For now, that puts both titles’ worldwide revenues at around $100 million, but that kind of appeal that goes beyond language bodes better for Garfieldlong-term performance of globally, including North America.
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