The Giants’ left-hander Blake Snell He could be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs already rumored to be linked to him. The Orioles could be added to that list, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new ownership and strong farm system.
The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, spending barely any money. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a contract larger than the $13 million deal to Craig KimbrelThe only multi-year contracts they have awarded have been two-year extensions for John means And Felix Bautistaplayers who were already controllable but had to recover from Tommy John surgeries.
The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the midst of a rebuild, but it has carried over to the new competitive window they currently find themselves in. There has been speculation that things could open up once the planned sale of the club is completed and there are signs that this is happening now.
David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until late March, just before Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here, as the deadline approached, they showed a willingness to absorb money, both for this year and for the future. They acquired Zach Eflin Rays, with the pitcher still owed about $3.8 million of his $11 million salary and a hefty raise to $18 million next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez Phillies, who is making $4.25 million this year and has an $8 million club option for next year.
Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition because of his opt-out, but the O’s may be the club best positioned to take such a risk. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explained in a Front Office subscriber piece, teams are typically hesitant to trade players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” and “opt-out,” as either gives the player control over what happens.
Trading such a player at the trade deadline has more drawbacks than benefits for the acquiring club. If the player performs, he will trigger the opt-out and leave, making him a rental player. If he performs or gets injured, the club is stuck with him at a price that is not acceptable because the player would not have accepted it otherwise.
Because of their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s entered this year with almost nothing on their books for 2025 and beyond. The $1 million owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they’ve since added Eflin’s $18 million, as mentioned. They have a few club options and a few arbitration-eligible players, but they have virtually nothing committed for next year.
Snell signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants through 2024. That includes a $15 million salary and a $17 million signing bonus, the latter of which is apparently not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30 million player option for next year.
The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout Snell’s career. He has won two Cy Young Awards, in 2018 and 2023, but has struggled in between. While he was in Cy Young form last year, his 2024 season is off to a rocky start.
Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a rushed start and then struggled in his first three starts. He was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring strain, returned for three more bad outings, then went back on injured reserve with a groin strain.
He had a 9.51 ERA after those six starts, but he’s come back since and been dominant. He’s made four starts since his second stint on the injured list and has allowed just two earned runs in 24 innings. He’s struck out 35.7 percent of the batters he’s faced in those four outings, highlighted by striking out 15 Rockies batters in six shutout innings Saturday.
The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That puts them just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot in a relatively weak race for the National League Wild Card, but they could consider selling. FanGraphs’ playoff odds still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason, though Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rankings have them at 9.8%, which could lead them to be prioritized going forward.
Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some promising talent while freeing up $30 million on next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That could happen anyway if Snell opts out, but it’s not a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024, but wouldn’t necessarily end their season, as they could still head into the final stretch with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison And Robbie Ray. There is also Alex Cobbwho was due to be reinstated from the injured list this weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters such as Mason Black And Hayden’s Birdsong that they could integrate into the mix.
Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to plenty of exploratory calls, but offers could be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true for clubs that have competitive tax balance issues, which applies to the other three clubs linked to Snell. The Yankees are projected to be a third-payer and above the fourth-tier tax bracket, meaning they face a 110% tax on any new spending they make. Next year’s payroll is more open, but they’ll want to have some dry powder to try to land a roster spot. Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both close to the CBT base threshold this year and appear reluctant to cross it.
The O’s are completely tax-free and have a lot of flexibility when it comes to payroll, making them an attractive fit for Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer And Albert Suarez on the back end. Kremer’s 4.32 ERA makes him suitable to take regular-season innings, but the O’s would ideally like to keep him out of playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year, but he’s a 34-year-old who didn’t pitch in the major leagues from 2018-23, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to count on him either.
Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they’ll make some sort of bold move in the coming days. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is considered one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5 p.m. Central Time.